Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 If there wasn't going to be so much crapvection, I'd be tempted to head out to the area between York and Westminster, MD. I just noticed 18z NAM was spitting out some not-too-shabby hodos. Westminster, MD at 21z: York, PA at 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Parents got nailed, 1.28" in the tipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 If there wasn't going to be so much crapvection, I'd be tempted to head out to the area between York and Westminster, MD. I just noticed 18z NAM was spitting out some not-too-shabby hodos. Westminster, MD at 21z: York, PA at 00z: That's pretty impressive. Like you said, pretty questionable in regards to debrisEdit* neW nam kinda shifts the best backing of the winds towards state college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Edit* neW nam kinda shifts the best backing of the winds towards state college SPC WRF agrees that the best shot at rotating storms is central PA. It builds a N-S line through central PA by 22z but then collapses it just outside of the city at 0z. Seems a bit later than the NAM though. The NAM has been indicating precip as early as 18z if I recall right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 NSSL WRF doesn't even register any updraft helicity with the stuff in our area. Has a blob from the city on north at 23z with scattered stuff south from there down through the Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES... SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...LOW END SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL UNDERGO SOME INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DIABATIC WARMING WILL SUPPORT SOME DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WITHIN CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND SPREAD EWD. IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL/LEITMAN.. 06/27/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 ^^^they don't sound too encouraged. Expect the norm, isolated severe, scattered heavy showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Parents got nailed, 1.28" in the tipper Interesting, we got nothing 6,imiles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 ^^^they don't sound too encouraged. Expect the norm, isolated severe, scattered heavy showers. Coverage is probably more widespread due to the disturbance coming into Western PA this AM. Today probably shapes up more as a heavy rain threat with some downbursts in the strongest of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Interesting, we got nothing 6,imiles north. The 4-incher had even more, 1.61". Must've been too fast for the tipper to keep up. The other reliable CoCoRaHS station had even more, 1.74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The 4-incher had even more, 1.61". Must've been too fast for the tipper to keep up. The other reliable CoCoRaHS station had even more, 1.74. There were some radar estimates of 1.5-2.5 inches over a one hour period in that area last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 There were some radar estimates of 1.5-2.5 inches over a one hour period in that area last night. Yes it was a narrow but very intense area of rainfall with the storms. They're up to 9.38 for the month now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Good timing today with forcing arriving after good heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Yea timing has me interested this upper air system over eastern Ohio is crawling... leads me to believe that the storms today will pack lots of cloud to ground lightning and very heavy rain... water logging looks to be the trick today. This should hold the storms below severe limits but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I have a question whats more important when it comes to storms Surface based cape or Cape-100mb mixed layer? I always notice there is a difference. For example currently the surface based cape is 2000 but the 100mb mixed layer is aroud 750. Just curious what the difference is between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I have a question whats more important when it comes to storms Surface based cape or Cape-100mb mixed layer? I always notice there is a difference. For example currently the surface based cape is 2000 but the 100mb mixed layer is aroud 750. Just curious what the difference is between the two. From my understanding, if you want severe, surface based cape gets you surface based storms, and not elevated ones. ML cape does help support hail growth and sustain updrafts. But usually, it's always <sb cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I'd call that an interesting 1630 update. Shaved 15% hail back south but introduced a new 15% contour for the Lehigh Valley on north. Put us all in a 30% wind. And upgraded Kansas to MDT with a 45% hatched for wind. Discussion is pretty milquetoast though: ...ERN GULF STATES AND APPALACHIANS TO ATLANTIC SEABOARD... DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN IMPULSE TURNING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...COUPLED WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF MODEST LOWER/MID-LEVEL FLOW...COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. A LINE OR CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...NORTHWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...AND SOUTHWARD...TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PERTURBATION COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER STORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...WHICH COULD PERHAPS DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. ..KERR/GRAMS.. 06/27/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 another wild SPC jump... anyhow, nice clearing and heating taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Just curious, but does anyone have a nice checklist for indices. I'm putting something together for Camden County Skywarn. If anyone has something really nice, let me know.. Looks like a new watch will be going up this afternoon, say from 2 to 10pm. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1266.html Looks a good case where these storms will cause a lot of lightning and damaging winds.. But that heavy rain will be another major factor this afternoon and evening. I'll say one thing about last night, saw a lightning display on par with what you see in July with thunderstorms. I mean lots of cloud to ground lightning strikes. Even losing power for a few seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Good chance of another Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Mesoscale Discussion 1266 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271704Z - 271900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV SHIFTING NEWD FROM NRN VA. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB CYCLONE NEAR THE MD PANHANDLE WITH AN MCV EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NRN VA AHEAD OF THE BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED WELL INTO THE 80S DOWNSTREAM OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A NARROW BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS /AROUND 30-35 KT/ WAS SAMPLED IN CCX/BGM VWP DATA AND THIS ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED IN AKQ VWP DATA SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SETUP MAY YIELD SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARDS...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE WITH TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/27/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 You know you're a dork when you go to the most recent SPC WW URL, add one to the WW# and hit refresh every once in a while. Stalk with me. You know you want to. http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0377.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 You know you're a dork when you go to the most recent SPC WW URL, add one to the WW# and hit refresh every once in a while. Stalk with me. You know you want to. http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0377.html It is a bit of a thrill to see yourself encircled by the wiggly-lined mesoscale discussion dealie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Just on the edge of having slight risk 5 days in a row. Tomorrows outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Wow - it's a Tornado Watch. http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0377.html WOUS64 KWNS 271754 WOU7 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 200 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013 TORNADO WATCH 377 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DCC001-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DEC001-003-005-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- 041-043-510-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037- 041-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN PAC001-011-017-025-029-037-041-043-045-055-057-061-067-071-075- 077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-119-133-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER UNION YORK VAC013-059-107-600-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON FAIRFAX LOUDOUN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFAX ANZ430-431-530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542- 280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD EASTERN BAY CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Here we gooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Tornado Watch graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (30%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (50%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (10%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (10%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (80%) For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Surprised they went with a tornado watch.. Still, here we go again tonight.. Wow.. Need to make sure my ham radio is fully charged for tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I don't like to hear that T word, must be just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 This just got very interesting. Should be some good t-storms around here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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