famartin Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 sounds modest but encouraging DISCUSSION...S CNTRL PA SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ESE AT 40 KTS INTO THE UPR CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND LWR DELAWARE VLY THROUGH MID-EVE. THE WRN END OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD...HOWEVER...TAKE A BIT MORE OF A RIGHTWARD /SSE/ TURN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS IT FURTHER CRESTS THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. AREA VWP DATA...COUPLED WITH THE 00Z IAD RAOB THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND...DESPITE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030. ...CORFIDI Corfidi is supposed to be one of the better ones too (according to one of my profs) By "mean storm vector" he actually means 'Corfidi vector". At least that's how I learned it. I'm suprised that line made it over the mountains tho. Its the name at the end of the discussion. The guy who invented the Corfidi vector is still a forecaster at SPC, and he's working tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/staff/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 15% odds on wind/hail along and nw of 295 for today. FYI, we went from a Thursday slight risk for Eastern PA in the day 3 outlook yesterday to a "see text" in the day 2 today. Wouldn't shock me to see it get bumped back up to slight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 @famartin: that's kind of what I was getting at. He and my met prof were classmates at PSU if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like Monday's set Up, little bit more drier air aloft. Lightning fest! 0z spc wrf for later this afternoon. It's been doing a decent job these past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Yesterday: CAPE, no shear. Today, lots o' shear no CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Yesterday: CAPE, no shear. Today, lots o' shear no CAPE.Trigger is there with a short wave west of Pittsburgh that will move closer later and we will have building cape with the sun today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Trigger is there with a short wave west of Pittsburgh that will move closer later and we will have building cape with the sun today. I'm mildly optimistic, though I think Wilmington-Baltimore may be a better bet. Haven't looked at the satellite, but we've had little sun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 I'm roasting here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 15% odds on wind/hail along and nw of 295 for today. FYI, we went from a Thursday slight risk for Eastern PA in the day 3 outlook yesterday to a "see text" in the day 2 today. Wouldn't shock me to see it get bumped back up to slight tomorrow. You are some wizard....Slight risk again for tomorrow. Also: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN PA...FAR ERN WV...CENTRAL/ERN MD...DE...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...A LARGE PART OF VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261719Z - 261945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...RECENT 7- AND 9-KM RADAR CAPPI DATA INDICATE AN UPTICK IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG A WEAKLY ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ARCING ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER INTO FAR SWRN VA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INVOF THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY DIURNALLY DEEPENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS INVOF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THE AIR MASS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IS STRONGLY DESTABILIZING TO THE S OF A MORE W/E-ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN PA. DIABATIC SFC HEATING SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70F IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS. WITH VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH SVR WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. DCAPE VALUES INCREASING OVER 1000 J/KG AND ENHANCED WATER-LOADING PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES PER GPS DATA WILL ENHANCE THE DMGG WIND POTENTIAL. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY MODEST PER LWX/FCX VWP DATA -- ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT FROM THE W -- WHICH MAY ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY ORGANIZED...EWD-MOVING MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER OHIO PER MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APPROACHES. HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OCCURS WITHIN THE ONGOING WARM SECTOR. THIS BREEDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND CORRESPONDING COVERAGE OF SVR TSTMS...THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..COHEN/KERR.. 06/26/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Is this the 3rd or 4th day in a row that we've been under a slight risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Here comes the Severe Thunderstorm watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 255 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY TO 45 MILES WEST OF SOUTH HILL VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 372... DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN MODERATELY LARGE CAPE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD COASTAL AREAS...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PERHAPS ENHANCED...ACROSS PARTS OF MARYLAND AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...BY A LINGERING BELT OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030. ...KERR Hazard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 A few early thunderstorms near Philly and Trenton. The bigger chance for strong activity may arrive from out near Harrisburg or from the convection near Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 A few early thunderstorms near Philly and Trenton. The bigger chance for strong activity may arrive from out near Harrisburg or from the convection near Baltimore. I'm waiting for that one near BWI, if it holds strength it'll move just south of my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Numbers look really good focused on Philly right now. Lets see what happens with the cell just north of Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 The Harrisburg storm turned severe right over the city producing wind damage. It is now beginning to organize into a line segment, which could help it hold together into SE PA and SW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Numbers look really good focused on Philly right now. Lets see what happens with the cell just north of Lancaster. Some wind, heavy rain and a few rumbles/cg strikes. The heaviest stuff passed directly over me. Max rain rate was 4.32" IMBY, KLNS recorded a gust to 29. Not a great storm, but a decent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 195 special setting up for central nj into monmouth County if it holds togther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Is this the 3rd or 4th day in a row that we've been under a slight risk? Today is day 3 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 You are some wizard....Slight risk again for tomorrow. more a product of spc inconsistency within the forecasters. the track record of these shifts within the day is getting rather lengthy. it's one thing to upgrade from slight to mod or to extend a risk farther east because a MCS is overperforming, it's another to simply go from <5% to a slight in one outlook. i don't like to beat up on them but the last couple of years have seen them do risk upgrades within the day much more frequently than they really should or used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 You are some wizard....Slight risk again for tomorrow. more a product of spc inconsistency within the forecasters. the track record of these shifts within the day is getting rather lengthy. it's one thing to upgrade from slight to mod or to extend a risk farther east because a MCS is overperforming, it's another to simply go from <5% to a slight in one outlook. i don't like to beat up on them but the last couple of years have seen them do risk upgrades within the day much more frequently than they really should or used to. Yeah I hear you Also there is some impressive lightning with this cell moving through northern delco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Yeah I hear you Also there is some impressive lightning with this cell moving through northern delco Yeah, a lot of cg strikes around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Tons of ctg here! Caught this as the storm* was approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 And one more: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 not bad for cell capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Great CTG in Bryn Mawr. IrishBri called it this morning. Brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Picked up 0.18" or rain from a storm that moved through earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Damn river effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Ignore the play button on the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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