tombo82685 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 We are in the CAPE bullseye attm. Let's see if we get anything. yea but we are lacking in mid lvl lapse rates. Also not sure have as pronounced of a trigger like we did yesterday. Gotta see what that stuff by state college does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 can some one post the web site where we can read cape and other values. i dont have it saved on my work comp. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 can some one post the web site where we can read cape and other values. i dont have it saved on my work comp. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ From there, click mesoanalysis and do your thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 yea but we are lacking in mid lvl lapse rates. Also not sure have as pronounced of a trigger like we did yesterday. Gotta see what that stuff by state college does. Yeah there's a little cold pool up that way in the UA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 yea but we are lacking in mid lvl lapse rates. Also not sure have as pronounced of a trigger like we did yesterday. Gotta see what that stuff by state college does. Yeah, but CAPE already takes into account mid level lapse rates. The trigger is going to be the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New update keeps extrem SE pa on the outside looking in, but bumped probs to 2% tor and 30% wind. Hail stays @15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Just outside of the box. DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN BROAD ARC OF WEAK TO NONEXISTENT MLCINH EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL NY SWWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH NWRN PA...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS FOREGOING AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DIABATICALLY. ONE POTENTIAL GENESIS AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD BE LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY COMING OFF LE OVER NERN OH AND PA. AS THESE TRENDS CONTINUE AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL-ERN PA AND NERN OH...PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO SMALL BOWS WHERE ANY PRECIP-LOADING RELATED COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP FOR FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL PURPOSES. SFC DEW POINTS RANGE FROM MID-60S F OVER MUCH OF PA TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ON OH AND ERN NY AND PORTIONS VT...CONTRIBUTING TO PATCHWORK OF MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG NEAR SFC MOIST AXES...GIVEN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION-RELATED WARMING APPLIED TO RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. WEAK MID-UPPER PERTURBATION MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN ONT/WRN NY REGION ALSO MAY BE CONTRIBUTING DESTABILIZATION ALOFT VIA DCVA. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL INCLUDE 1. LACK OF ANY OTHER SUBSTANTIAL/SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES FOR FOCI...AT LEAST INITIALLY PRIOR TO ANY COLD-POOL FORMATION... 2. WEAK SFC FLOW...LIMITING CONVERGENCE...AND 3. WEAK DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA -- EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ONLY 15-25 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Yeah, but CAPE already takes into account mid level lapse rates. The trigger is going to be the issue. So they are directly related? Why is it on the meso page the mid level lapse rates are running under 5.5 while the cape is very high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 So they are directly related? Why is it on the meso page the mid level lapse rates are running under 5.5 while the cape is very high? Without looking that closely, I would assume the low level lapse rates are high to allow positively buoyant parcels to have large low level accelerations. Certainly, in a classic capped atmosphere, you need strong mid-level lapse rates, but with weak (or no) caps, low level moisture and heating can overcome neutrally buoyant mid-levels. For example, in the tropics, CAPEs are often >1000 J/kg, but the mid-level atmosphere is basically moist neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Active weak ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Love it. Bring on a good boomer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 N portion of area could be in slight risk for 4 consecutive days. Be surprised if that has happened before.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 Some non-severe, but intense storms approaching both South-Central Jersey and the Philadelphia area. The shore points will also need to keep an eye out for any of the big lightning producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 That cell that is now warned had some gusts to 30-35 when it moved through here. That's about it so far other than some heavy rain and some lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Good to see that storm hitting the airport. Time to break that June rainfall record for PHL already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 We, being extreme SE PA, were upgrade to slight risk with 30%wind 15% hail and 2% tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 We, being extreme SE PA, were upgrade to slight risk with 30%wind 15% hail and 2% tornado. Looks like we'll be staying up late for the MCS. Hopefully it's a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Looks like we'll be staying up late for the MCS. Hopefully it's a good one. Dont you mean DERECHO?!? Judging from the update we may have been bumped from the stuff that moved through earlier. Not sure though. ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST PROBABILITIES BASED ON WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE PRESENT ATTM AND EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING. A MIX OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DOWNSTREAM OF AN MCV IN ERN NY. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...SEVERAL CLUSTERS APPEAR PROBABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITHIN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PRIMARY RISK SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 2 straight days the SPC has had to upgrade large chunks of real estate in day to slight risk from <5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Severe storm watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Severe storm watch issued sounds modest but encouraging DISCUSSION...S CNTRL PA SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ESE AT 40 KTS INTO THE UPR CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND LWR DELAWARE VLY THROUGH MID-EVE. THE WRN END OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD...HOWEVER...TAKE A BIT MORE OF A RIGHTWARD /SSE/ TURN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS IT FURTHER CRESTS THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. AREA VWP DATA...COUPLED WITH THE 00Z IAD RAOB THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND...DESPITE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030. ...CORFIDI Corfidi is supposed to be one of the better ones too (according to one of my profs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 By "mean storm vector" he actually means 'Corfidi vector". At least that's how I learned it. I'm suprised that line made it over the mountains tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like garbage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like garbage! Yeah, it did just get warned, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Bunch of rumbles in the distance... But the 7-10 split going on here Nice breeze though, windows are open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like garbage! Yeah, it did just get warned, though. Outflow boundary winds are likely the main threat, hence the warning so far out ahead of the actual echoes on radar. But yeah, this isn't the main show of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Outflow boundary winds are likely the main threat, hence the warning so far out ahead of the actual echoes on radar. But yeah, this isn't the main show of the week. Yeah, it looks like Reisterstown, MD had a 51kt gust with the outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Gusty winds well ahead of line. Only occasional lightning. edit: weakened - just a breezy rain shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Heavy rain and lightning here now....lights flickering.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Yeah, it looks like Reisterstown, MD had a 51kt gust with the outflow. Martin State Airport gusted to 53 kts. KMTN 260248Z AUTO 29031G53KT 10SM SCT065 28/17 A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W THRU N Looks like the line held together more farther south. Actually pretty common to have the area of highest winds dive south in a squall line like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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