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2013 Mt. Holly CWA Convection Thread


SouthernNJ

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If you got hit with that round, you're stabilized

 

SBCAPE and MLCAPE are still showing impressive values on Mesoanalysis.  Storms later on won't be surface-based, but we have plenty of elevated instability to work with, so even if they're outflow-dominant, they'll still be there later on this evening.

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SBCAPE and MLCAPE are still showing impressive values on Mesoanalysis. Storms later on won't be surface-based, but we have plenty of elevated instability to work with, so even if they're outflow-dominant, they'll still be there later on this evening.

Yea, micro climo stuff. Tombo was @89 degrees, here in Delco we're 73*. Just hit and miss in spots.

Coming over the commodore was pretty sweet. Awesome ctg strikes around and a nice gust front from the outflow. (40mph)

We'll see how areas recover and what's affected later on

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Mesoscale Discussion 1205 < Previous MD         Next MD >

 

 mcd1205.gif

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0343 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA / DE / MD / NRN VA / NRN NJ   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355...   VALID 242043Z - 242145Z   CORRECTED FOR HEADER AREA DESCRIPTION   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355   CONTINUES.   SUMMARY...ISOLD HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL   MORE HOURS...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AREAS VOID OF PRIOR   STORMS/OUTFLOW.   DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POCKET CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD   ACROSS ERN PA TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE HUDSON RIVER.  SLIGHTLY   STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /30 KT AT 6 KM/ MOVING THROUGH THE BASE   OF THE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION /REFERENCE KLWX VWP/ WILL   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG-LOCALLY SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS.    SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OVER PARTS OF FAR SERN PA AND   CNTRL NJ WILL LIKELY HINDER A CONTINUATION OF AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE   THREAT IN THOSE AREAS FROM HERE FORWARD IN TIME.  LIKEWISE...ISOLD   SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS ADJACENT   MD/NRN VA AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS GRADUALLY   MOVE EWD TOWARDS CHESAPEAKE BAY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.     FARTHER N OVER NERN PA AND NRN NJ...A RELATIVELY   PRISTINE/UNCONTAMINATED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL   SUPPORT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AS   STORMS --IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE-- MOVE EWD TOWARDS   THE NYC-NRN NJ MEGALOPOLIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
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Getting grazed by what appears to be a very healthy cell.  GRLevel3 stopped updating, of course, just in time so I couldn't watch it evolve on radar as it passed overhead.  Very interesting cloud behavior - appeared to be witnessing a good inflow channel.  Might have been rotating slowly.

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Just had a nice gusty thunderstorm.  Looks like a lot of lightning SE and S of here.  Maybe in the Marlton area.

 

edit: okay winds really picked up after i posted that.  i don't see any branches down here though.  on the way out now.  lots of lightning though probably evesham and medford areas.

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Just had a nice gusty thunderstorm. Looks like a lot of lightning SE and S of here. Maybe in the Marlton area.

edit: okay winds really picked up after i posted that. i don't see any branches down here though. on the way out now. lots of lightning though probably evesham and medford areas.

Absolutely. We got quite a lot of ctg and ctc here in Marlton. Borderline severe here at one point during the worst downpours. Probably the best tstorm event in a year or two here. We usually watch from afar or get sloppy seconds, so this was nice...

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Pretty impressive for convection today with that upper level, which Mount Holly discussion pointed out.  Now, a bigger and more impressive severe weather threat is for Thursday and Friday.  Very good threat for damaging winds and hail.  Man, anytime you get that trough near our area, always gets very active.  I'll say one thing, the heavy rain events we've seen, seeing these flood advisories saying 3 inches an hours, shows you how juiced up things are.  

 

By the way, if anyone is interested, check out some of the forecasts I'm producing.  I'm the Skywarn Coordinator for Camden County and helping out the folks at the EOC in Lindenwold.. Basically, coming up with some experimental products.  Really like this type of forecasting and definitely challenging...Always like long range forecasting as well..

 

The 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 Day outlooks are similar to the Climate Prediction Center's US Hazard Assessment..  Plus, I'm giving it a go with TV like broadcasts. Finally found a great chromakey software.  Serious Magic, god that was a total failure, but this new program, XSplit works awesome.  Great program to use.. Just in case if anyone wants to do some TV like broadcasts, highly recommend it.  

 

5 Day Outlook

http://ezweather.com/myblog/2013/06/23/philadelphia-area-weather-hazard-outlook-mon-jun-24-fri-jun-28-3/

 

6 to 10 Day Outlook

http://ezweather.com/myblog/2013/06/23/philadelphia-area-weather-hazard-outlook-thu-jun-27-mon-jul-1/

 

8 to 14 Day Outlook

http://ezweather.com/myblog/2013/06/23/philadelphia-area-weather-hazard-outlook-mon-jul-1-fri-jul-5/

 

Anyway, the end of the work should be real interesting.. Man, tonight, talk about that lightning.. Just tons of it..

 

Right now, its clearing and quiet out there.  Actually, not to bad outside.  Just a typical summer day.. Yep, summer days have arrive..

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Three thunderstorms, .14" and probably 14 mph peak wind gust.  The rainshadow held Scotty.

 

It was terrifying on the Angelo's side of Mt. Laurel.  Tree twigs down everywhere.  Wawa runs delayed up to an hour.  Just barbaric.

 

Frankly I'm surprised your tomato plants survived.

 

Maybe we got it worse off out this way.............

 

 

 

 

.....or maybe I just forgot what a real thunderstorm is like.  :ph34r:

 

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those who didn't get any storms yesterday might cash in today. more scattered expected but we're not in any risk level.  Wouldn't shock to see us "bump" into a see text later.

 

 

Well can't really get philly any closer to the SLight risk without actually being in the slight risk.

 

day1otlk_1300.gif

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