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2013 Mt. Holly CWA Convection Thread


SouthernNJ

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Heavy wind driven rain now in National Park, wind has dropped to 25-30 gusts now...when it broke, broke very quickly, wind and rain roared for several minutes...would estimate sustained 30 for about 7 minutes, several gusts to 50 maybe a bit higher in that span...torrential rain now, ponding on streets and also one of the more noticeable near instant temp drops experienced

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Rain total so far today in East Nantmeal Twp

NW Chesco PA

 

  • 2.65" today
  • 9.15" June MTD this now ranks as the 7th wettest June since 1894 here in Chester County
  • Today's 2.65" is the 3rd daily rain total this month exceeding 2.00" each of those days also represents a daily rainfall record for Chester County today's old record was 1.62" back in 2000
  • June 7th (2.94") old record 2.00" in 1938
  • June 10th (2.13") old record 0.72"  in 1957
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Rain total so far today in East Nantmeal Twp

NW Chesco PA

 

  • 2.65" today
  • 9.15" June MTD this now ranks as the 7th wettest June since 1894 here in Chester County
  • Today's 2.65" is the 3rd daily rain total this month exceeding 2.00" each of those days also represents a daily rainfall record for Chester County today's old record was 1.62" back in 2000
  • June 7th (2.94") old record 2.00" in 1938
  • June 10th (2.13") old record 0.72"  in 1957

 

3 miles away and over an inch less for me - 1.57" for the day - which is fine with me.

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Upgrade to SLight RIsk for us 15% wind/hail.

...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
   INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE
   WEAK MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION
   THIS AFTERNOON.  THE ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR
   SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   IMPULSE CAN SUPPORT STORM CONSOLIDATION...ANY ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
   MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
 

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Upgrade to SLight RIsk for us 15% wind/hail.

...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE

   WEAK MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL

   APPALACHIANS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION

   THIS AFTERNOON.  THE ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR

   SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER

   IMPULSE CAN SUPPORT STORM CONSOLIDATION...ANY ASSOCIATED COLD POOL

   MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

 

 

Good move...there is a -13c pocket at 500mb with the associated vort max over W-C PA (the low-level lapse rates are of course favorable but even the mid level lapse rates are decent with this feature). The 12z GFS brings this into NW NJ by 00z 6/25. The CAPE is also very "fat" with MLs ~ 2000 j/kg and SBs exceeding 3000 j/kg. A cold pool organization may offset the lack of wind shear and bring some isolated severe gusts.

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ww0355_radar_big.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 355
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   245 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
     DELAWARE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND
     NEW JERSEY
     EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
     NORTHERN VIRGINIA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   TRENTON NEW JERSEY TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON DISTRICT
   OF COLUM.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 354...

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING ALONG AND TO THE
   EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
   TO CONGEAL ...WITH CONSOLIDATING SURFACE COLD POOLS...AS IT DEVELOPS
   EASTWARD INTO A VERY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
   PLAIN.  LARGE CAPE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE HAIL...AND THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   INCREASE AS UPSCALE GROWTH PROCEEDS.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27025.


   ...KERR
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Quite bullish on the wind probs too:

 

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

Low (10%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

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