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2013 Mt. Holly CWA Convection Thread


SouthernNJ

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Updraft strength sucked big time yesterday in the wake of the giant MCS and it wasn't enough in the highly shear environment for sustainment (so SPC did a great job removing the SLT and my interest in the situation was too optimistic). The wind profiles were pretty awesome, though, and it was cool to mimic an OKC/OUN type of directional component without having marine influence from the low-level backed winds. Very unusual for this area to do that successfully (usually we need a "NW Flow event" to pull off proper directional shear and CAPE)...

 

I think it was Adam a while ago who had interest in warmth and possible C Plains severe around 6/20 (it's looking good). It appears the latest GFS/GEFS and EPS indicate another EML attempt for the Midwest-Mid Atlantic during this time (day 7-10 it may advect) with plenty of convective opportunities. I'll see you all then...

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I knew yesterday's severe potential was in trouble when in Ohio that line didn't turn southeast like most MCS's. I kept waiting for it to turn Southeast into the lower MA but instead it kept moving east. I know the NAM didn't even have an MCS so it's severe perameters were going to be in trouble.

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Wouldn't be shocked to see some storms this afternoon, which the rap is hititng on. Decent shear, cape and LI, so if we can get a trigger they should have no problem in forming. I would favor from about the city on west where the strongest instability and shear is.

Decent cumulus field.

e6ame3yq.jpg

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  

406 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

NORTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...  

NORTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...  

SOUTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...  

SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  

 

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT  

 

* AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR PARADISE...MOVING SOUTHEAST  

AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE  

HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  

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