Porsche Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 I'm having our annual development yard sale this Sat and know we are going to get some wet weather, had checked out the short range sim radar and it looks pretty wet for Sat, any others have an idea on whether we are looking to get a good amount of rain or are the showers/storms isolated? We usually get 500+ so that is why I'm asking and we sell over 300 hot dogs, so depending on the weather it will certainly impact my business Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 You're going to get soaked between 7am and 5pm per NWS point and click for Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Should be a very solid looking Fropa. Hoping for a later time for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 Oh man that sucks, if it can come just a few hours later that would be great. Guess I'll check it again tomorrow but it doesn't sound too promising. Thanks for the replies guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 looking at the models. the euro has the brunt of the precip around 18z or about noon, but it has about .3 before hand... the gfs is later with the timing and holds off the steadier stuff after 18z...but does have some scattered stuff before hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 Thanks Tombo, that gives me a ray of hope, if I can make it till noon without the heavy stuff I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Yeah I'm having a outdoor/indoor party for my 21st around 7-11pm. How does Bensalem look, for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 Does it appear the heavier stuff may come earlier overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Looks like scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop as early as 4-5pm this evening across portions of Eastern PA. More steady showers move in over night tonight, say around midnight or so, then hangs around for most of the day Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Slight risk issued for our area. Sun poking out here in Aston. Lets see what can happen. Already decent shear and thermos in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 12z spc WRF for later; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Mesoscale Discussion 631 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF MD AND VA...SERN PA...DE...SRN NJ...NERN NC... CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 111744Z - 111915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH 20Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA COMBINED WITH A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING LOWER-MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AVERAGING 40KTS/ ACROSS THE AREA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NRN VA NWD INTO SERN PA/SRN NJ THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR DESTABILIZATION. ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH...THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE OWING TO STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND SCTD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A CONFLUENT AXIS FROM SERN VA SWD INTO ERN NC. SCTD TSTMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. GIVEN PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE STRONGER TSTMS THIS AFTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FOR A PSBL WW. A MORE TEMPORALLY/SPATIALLY LIMITED THREAT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LEADS TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEED FOR A WW. ..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 05/11/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted May 11, 2013 Author Share Posted May 11, 2013 Well I made it till about 12:30pm without any rain, yard sale went well, didn't sell quite as many hot dogs as I wanted too, but all in all much better than I was anticipating considering the weather. Had some good downpours around 12:30, looks like we could get some more later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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