Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Short Range Forecast


Porsche

Recommended Posts

I'm having our annual development yard sale this Sat and know we are going to get some wet weather, had checked out the short range sim radar and it looks pretty wet for Sat, any others have an idea on whether we are looking to get a good amount of rain or are the showers/storms isolated?  We usually get 500+ so that is why I'm asking and we sell over 300 hot dogs, so depending on the weather it will certainly impact my business :)

 

Thanks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop as early as 4-5pm this evening across portions of Eastern PA. More steady showers move in over night tonight, say around midnight or so, then hangs around for most of the day Saturday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

post-810-136829597555.jpg

Mesoscale Discussion 631

< Previous MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF MD AND VA...SERN

PA...DE...SRN NJ...NERN NC...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111744Z - 111915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH 20Z

AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TRENDS ARE

BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY

THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION

AREA COMBINED WITH A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN

MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING

LOWER-MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR /AVERAGING 40KTS/ ACROSS THE AREA.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH

ACROSS NRN VA NWD INTO SERN PA/SRN NJ THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME

DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR DESTABILIZATION. ORGANIZED

MULTICELLS/SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING

WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE OWING TO STRONGER

DIURNAL HEATING AND SCTD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A CONFLUENT AXIS

FROM SERN VA SWD INTO ERN NC. SCTD TSTMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE

WEST OF THIS AREA NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. GIVEN PW VALUES OF

AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE STRONGER

TSTMS THIS AFTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND

ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS THE

DISCUSSION AREA FOR A PSBL WW. A MORE TEMPORALLY/SPATIALLY LIMITED

THREAT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LEADS TO GREATER

UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 05/11/2013

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well I made it till about 12:30pm without any rain, yard sale went well, didn't sell quite as many hot dogs as I wanted too, but all in all much better than I was anticipating considering the weather.  Had some good downpours around 12:30, looks like we could get some more later today.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...