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2013 New England Severe General Discussion


Quincy

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Yeah as always the threat is conditional on instability. There are a few interesting things with this one... i.e. decent shear and fairly long/curved hodographs. Could very well be nothing but there are a few elements to this one that deserve a longer look. 

No doubt, not throwing in the towel or anything.  Hopefully it's a dangerous afternoon and evening for all.

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SNE is NOT out of the discussion for severe...  

 

These things take time to evolve.  Particularly, the clearing that is for real and racing east now into western Mass, will overtake the rest of the region during the afternoon.  Steady destablization will occur, with regardless of what the Euro or what have you guidance suggests... low-level lapse rate, near warm frontal SRH, combined with small mid-level speed maxes nearing NYS, all contributing to the threat.   

 

It's hard to get one's head around it when they are sitting under slate gray murk -- understood, but you have to think outside the box.   Summer days are long.  It can clear as late as 3 pm, and with a warm sector arriving, the temp can soar 20+ degrees by 6 -- I have seen it happen.   In June of 1987 a MCS developed at 5pm near ALB and roared down the Rt 2 Corridor.  The day was 63/63 until 2:30 in Middlesex County.  It was 87/70 by 5:30 out ahead of the MCS.  Not an analog for today, no... but the point is, it can turn around quickly.   

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1123 cdt:

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

DECREASING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL
FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY AFTERNOON FROM SWRN ONTARIO TO THE
LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD EWD
THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A STRONG...WLY
WIND FIELD. A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

 

 

Eh... already 12:30pm, have lots of work to do, and highest dews are still in low 60s:

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