CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Anyway we're out chasing today in our nice new truck. Wrapping some stuff up for a story in Monson then hanging out in Great Barrington to go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I don't think it's a stretch to expect strong storms to reach at Least CON to ORH to IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Anyway we're out chasing today in our nice new truck. Wrapping some stuff up for a story in Monson then hanging out in Great Barrington to go from there. My friend and I are going to Hudson area if my boss let's me go. How far is that from Great Barrington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I don't think it's a stretch to expect strong storms to reach at Least CON to ORH to IJD meh... depends on your definition of strong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Seeing sun trying to break out here in Coventry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 My friend and I are going to Hudson area if my boss let's me go. How far is that from Great Barrington? Not too far. The problem with parts of NY in Columbia and Dutchess Counties is that they're terrible dead zones for cell coverage and especially data coverage. It really sucks around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Few breaks in the OVC here in Danbury. 63/62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Not too far. The problem with parts of NY in Columbia and Dutchess Counties is that they're terrible dead zones for cell coverage and especially data coverage. It really sucks around there. Yes, I was looking at that last night. I have a Virgin Mobile wireless air card and in that part of NY there is very little coverage...same thing with Sprint. Is Great Barrington better? Maybe we'll shoot out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Models showed a strong push of theta-e advection after 18z or so and that would probably really help boost up dewpoints a few degrees. Mesoanalysis on weather.cod showing it nicely right now. Nice theta-e advection ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Mesoanalysis on weather.cod showing it nicely right now. Nice theta-e advection ongoing. Yeah pretty decent push of theta-e. Mesoanalysis map as of 14z had low 60's dews throughout PA/NJ and working into NY. But that was as of 14z...might just need to go look locally for more up to hour obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 For your area totally. Most of SNE isn't in the game today. Yeah, i was speaking overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yeah pretty decent push of theta-e. Mesoanalysis map as of 14z had low 60's dews throughout PA/NJ and working into NY. But that was as of 14z...might just need to go look locally for more up to hour obs Td up to 62 here in DXR-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yeah, i was speaking overall. Yeah as always the threat is conditional on instability. There are a few interesting things with this one... i.e. decent shear and fairly long/curved hodographs. Could very well be nothing but there are a few elements to this one that deserve a longer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Td up to 62 here in DXR-land. Awesome!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yeah as always the threat is conditional on instability. There are a few interesting things with this one... i.e. decent shear and fairly long/curved hodographs. Could very well be nothing but there are a few elements to this one that deserve a longer look. Just a setup where we may not see widespread action or a great deal of severe wx but given the parameters it only takes one cell to really go off and do something major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Partial clearing and some sunshine in Waterbury now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Chris just said sun coming out at home in Litchfield or Torrington or wherever he's from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yeah as always the threat is conditional on instability. There are a few interesting things with this one... i.e. decent shear and fairly long/curved hodographs. Could very well be nothing but there are a few elements to this one that deserve a longer look. Good way to sum it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Sun is roaring in everywhere now. Looks like its time to get serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 This is an ENY show. Locally backed surface winds in the Hudson Valley combined with modest instability could produce a tornado or two along with some borderline severe hail. The Euro barely gets good instability into western CT and western MA Well, there's always hoping. Sun just broke through here at the Pit. Currently, 57.2/57. Quite a ways to go to hit the progges 74 on my p/c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Sun is roaring in everywhere now. Looks like its time to get serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 No basis for this thought - but this feels like there could be a potential for an over-performer. I remember times like this last year where it looked like it would turn out to be nothing, but we all walked away pretty impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 OVC 66 here in Great Barrington, but clearing is not far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Well off to my work and talk to my boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I hope schools have early dismissal due to this massive outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Mesoscale Discussion 853 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PA...MUCH OF NY...SRN VT...WRN MA...WRN CT...NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291538Z - 291745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NY/PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO EASTERN LOWER MI. SCATTERED TCU/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...N OF DET AND OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. STRONG HEATING IS NOW OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL NY/PA WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROMOTING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks like maybe an STW later -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0853.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Up to 70/64 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Sun is roaring in everywhere now. Looks like its time to get serious lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 On my way to work and noting patches of blue sky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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