yoda Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 RPM looks ominous @bobmaxon: Whoa. RPM model for around 8:00pm. SVR weather from ENY moves ESE. Must be watched. Download our APP to follow these. http://t.co/LZpnhMqeZE Heavy heavy damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 looks like a shallow EML made it to the nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The flow aloft and quick turning to the west and even west-northwest is really nice.......but of course instability is the question. If we ever could get some nice heating...things would really pop. But we have to get through the crap in ern NY state still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The flow aloft and quick turning to the west and even west-northwest is really nice.......but of course instability is the question. If we ever could get some nice heating...things would really pop. But we have to get through the crap in ern NY state still.That looks like most of it will swung thru Mass heading west - east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Just stating the obvious in that we need these clouds to break for a few hours. We will see if the sun burns off some of the low clouds for a bit allowing that to happen. Certainly models show a decent amount of shear/helicity if things can get cranking. The best chance of a tornado would obviously be with any discrete cells that are able to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Pretty heavy overcast here right now. Going to be tough to scour out to get the heating going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Never even thought to check if the GFS was overdoing dews...damn RAP is doing the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Will be pretty much a no show here, Today reminds me of all of last week, overcast, showers and temps in the 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Pretty much have to go all the way back to BGM for some appreciable clearing. Looks like E NY shouldn't have too much trouble destabilizing, but western New England is a bit more of a question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Pretty much have to go all the way back to BGM for some appreciable clearing. Looks like E NY shouldn't have too much trouble destabilizing, but western New England is a bit more of a question mark. This is gonna be pretty meh for 90% of SNE unless we clear out by 18-21z. Maybe a Copake/Great Barrington Special today. I'd much prefer to rely on some actual surface heating rather than overdone modeled dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 That clearing / breaks in clouds appears to be working fairly quickly. It's approaching POU soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 RPM looks ominous @bobmaxon: Whoa. RPM model for around 8:00pm. SVR weather from ENY moves ESE. Must be watched. Download our APP to follow these. http://t.co/LZpnhMqeZE One day, we will tell our grandkids about the epic line of severe icing on 5/29/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 One day, we will tell our grandkids about the epic line of severe icing on 5/29/13. LOL...interesting map. SVR freezing rain moving through this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Still murky at the ground level, but up above, looks like the sun's trying to burn through with shadows being cast. 55.7/55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 @bobmaxon: An important ingredient to late t'storms is showing up in NYS right now...sunny breaks. Temps jump to 80, storms by 6 http://t.co/OCo3htcbwu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Destructive damaging sunshine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Destructive damaging sunshine... Well UV rays can cause skin damage..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 This is an ENY show. Locally backed surface winds in the Hudson Valley combined with modest instability could produce a tornado or two along with some borderline severe hail. The Euro barely gets good instability into western CT and western MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I'm not sure how I feel about that Day 5 outlook already. Seems early in the going given the differences in trough progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Satellite loop looks good. Clearing to just about the NYS line. West of the River in the Pioneer Valley, Berkshire foothills, and Litchfield Hills/Taconics should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 This is an ENY show. Locally backed surface winds in the Hudson Valley combined with modest instability could produce a tornado or two along with some borderline severe hail. The Euro barely gets good instability into western CT and western MA I wouldn't expect much of anything ORH/PVD but along and west of the CT River is pretty primed I think given the current visible satellite loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Satellite loop looks good. Clearing to just about the NYS line. West of the River in the Pioneer Valley, Berkshire foothills, and Litchfield Hills/Taconics should do well. I'm trying to figure out where those good dewpoints are coming from. 60-65 dewpoints to the SW of SNE and ENY. 925mb/850mb dews aren't all that great either to mix down higher dews. Euro has 68+ in the Hudson Valley at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Still have a line of showers back in the Catskills, then we're home free. Enroute to the Albany area at the moment. Light rain here in Waterbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yeah I don't really expect much in CT outside of areas NW of Hartford. I just can't get excited for today. Sunday's the better day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Rick - Logan11 is in the best spot methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I just can't get excited for today. Sunday's the better day. For your area totally. Most of SNE isn't in the game today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The 12z NAM initialized 2m dew points fairly well. Between ET, moisture transport, and pooling mid 60s seem reasonable... certainly less than the GFS was spitting out (as usual) but sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Much of NYS will be in decent heating by noon and western CT/MA probably by 1 at the very latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The 12z NAM initialized 2m dew points fairly well. Between ET, moisture transport, and pooling mid 60s seem reasonable... certainly less than the GFS was spitting out (as usual) but sufficient. Models showed a strong push of theta-e advection after 18z or so and that would probably really help boost up dewpoints a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 We'll see what happens but I'll have camera at the ready in the car this evening. Hopefully get a round in here before dark. The past few years I've really started to appreciate how good this area is for severe wx watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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