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2013 New England Severe General Discussion


Quincy

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The flow aloft and quick turning to the west and even west-northwest is really nice.......but of course instability is the question. If we ever could get some nice heating...things would really pop. But we have to get through the crap in ern NY state still.

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The flow aloft and quick turning to the west and even west-northwest is really nice.......but of course instability is the question. If we ever could get some nice heating...things would really pop. But we have to get through the crap in ern NY state still.

That looks like most of it will swung thru Mass heading west - east
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Just stating the obvious in that we need these clouds to break for a few hours. We will see if the sun burns off some of the low clouds for a bit allowing that to happen. Certainly models show a decent amount of shear/helicity if things can get cranking. The best chance of a tornado would obviously be with any discrete cells that are able to develop.

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Pretty much have to go all the way back to BGM for some appreciable clearing.

Looks like E NY shouldn't have too much trouble destabilizing, but western New England is a bit more of a question mark.

 

 

This is gonna be pretty meh for 90% of SNE unless we clear out by 18-21z. Maybe a Copake/Great Barrington Special today. I'd much prefer to rely on some actual surface heating rather than overdone modeled dewpoints.

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This is an ENY show.  Locally backed surface winds in the Hudson Valley combined with modest instability could produce a tornado or two along with some borderline severe hail.  The Euro barely gets good instability into western CT and western MA  

 

I wouldn't expect much of anything ORH/PVD but along and west of the CT River is pretty primed I think given the current visible satellite loop.

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Satellite loop looks good. Clearing to just about the NYS line. West of the River in the Pioneer Valley, Berkshire foothills, and Litchfield Hills/Taconics should do well.

I'm trying to figure out where those good dewpoints are coming from.  60-65 dewpoints to the SW of SNE and ENY.  925mb/850mb dews aren't all that great either to mix down higher dews.  Euro has 68+ in the Hudson Valley at 21z.  

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The 12z NAM initialized 2m dew points fairly well. Between ET, moisture transport, and pooling mid 60s seem reasonable... certainly less than the GFS was spitting out (as usual) but sufficient. 

 

Models showed a strong push of theta-e advection after 18z or so and that would probably really help boost up dewpoints a few degrees.  

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