OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 That's some pretty crazy helicity numbers. If we are able to get 1500 or even 2000 Cape then some of those storms will really take off. I'd aslo watch for the Valley areas where winds may locally back even more. Our local WRF is maintaining winds from 180 or 190 in the Connecticut Valley from BDL (edge of our domain) northward, as opposed to 240 or so behind the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Check out the 2-5 km updraft helicity north of ALY, that what I was getting at about the mesoscale guidance. Associated with the high reflecitivity storm north of ALY in this image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Our local WRF is maintaining winds from 180 or 190 in the Connecticut Valley from BDL (edge of our domain) northward, as opposed to 240 or so behind the warm front. Seeing a local model show that is great to see. Not too often do the NAM/GFS really pick up on that but more often than not, when warm fronts lift through here, the winds tend to stay backed longer at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Awesome stuff OceanStWx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Wow...that 2-5km updraft helicity is pretty impressive for this area. If there is moderate Cape in place for that than watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Seeing a local model show that is great to see. Not too often do the NAM/GFS really pick up on that but more often than not, when warm fronts lift through here, the winds tend to stay backed longer at the sfc. The atmosphere tends to have a "memory" of these sorts of features, and model guidance can definitely be too quick to wash these things out. Happens all the time with OFBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The atmosphere tends to have a "memory" of these sorts of features, and model guidance can definitely be too quick to wash these things out. Happens all the time with OFBs. While the MCS has greatly weakened over the past few hours that certainly had to leave some sort of outflow boundary, albeit weak somewhere there in eastern NY in the Albany area. Satellite trends are looking great though, showing tons of breaks in the clouds already and once the sun comes up we should get even more. Cloud tops have been rapidly warming. Can't wait to see how things look as we near sunrise and a few hours past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 While the MCS has greatly weakened over the past few hours that certainly had to leave some sort of outflow boundary, albeit weak somewhere there in eastern NY in the Albany area. Satellite trends are looking great though, showing tons of breaks in the clouds already and once the sun comes up we should get even more. Cloud tops have been rapidly warming. Can't wait to see how things look as we near sunrise and a few hours past. Well it certainly has the look of severe weather for our area, seeing as our ceilings at the office have lowered to below 1000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Going west again on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Nice to see the Pit in your "purple oval of doom". I wish this wasn't so late in the day (unless I'm interpreting things, we're looking more at evening than daytime, no?). I have to give a presentation at a conference on the north shore tomorrow. I want to hold off my drive to the hotel as long as possible tonight in case any storms come through. Meanwhile, picked up .39" overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Nice to see the Pit in your "purple oval of doom". I wish this wasn't so late in the day (unless I'm interpreting things, we're looking more at evening than daytime, no?). I have to give a presentation at a conference on the north shore tomorrow. I want to hold off my drive to the hotel as long as possible tonight in case any storms come through. Meanwhile, picked up .39" overnight. The latest runs of the HRRR are trying to indicate a couple rounds possible. Late afternoon with the southern edge of the decaying MCS and another that fires off the lakes breezes from Erie/Ontario and tracks east in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The latest runs of the HRRR are trying to indicate a couple rounds possible. Late afternoon with the southern edge of the decaying MCS and another that fires off the lakes breezes from Erie/Ontario and tracks east in the evening. Thanks. Hopefully any of the evening activity would be before 8:00--that's already later than I'd like to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Besides the extreme thermodynamics present on 6/1, he's sort of right in that thunderstorms are expected in the late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Got some good rains last night which was nice to cleanse the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Got some good rains last night which was nice to cleanse the air. This. Around 1/2" when all said and done. Heard a couple rumbles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The cloud cover is a wrench into the forecast too. Hopefully the mid level junk thins out a bit after this s/w moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 There is a decent s/w that dips down from the NW this evening. I think that helps maintain convection for a bit, so I like seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I think the issue will come down to instability. While the GFS maps look great the GFS is also printing out some ridiculous looking sfc dew points. Low 70s in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I think the issue will come down to instability. While the GFS maps look great the GFS is also printing out some ridiculous looking sfc dew points. Low 70s in many areas. Never even thought to check if the GFS was overdoing dews...damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Never even thought to check if the GFS was overdoing dews...damnStill a decent setup, regardless. MOS dew-points look much more realistic. MAV/MET in fair agreement with mid-60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Still a decent setup, regardless. MOS dew-points look much more realistic. MAV/MET in fair agreement with mid-60's. MET is noticeably less though. At BDL it goes from upper 50s to low 60s by this afternoon. The 65/66 on MAV is closer to what you'd want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 MET is noticeably less though. At BDL it goes from upper 50s to low 60s by this afternoon. The 65/66 on MAV is closer to what you'd want.As is too often the case, everything has to line up just right around here and as far as dews go, far from ideal. Hopefully Wiz can get west or northwest. Timing is also a bit later than we'd like for N CT as guidance wants to push storms in 6-8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 RAP model has a nice severe line around 8 PM in western Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 It'll be a nighttime show in Ct. After 9:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 It'll be a nighttime show in Ct. After 9:00 yea appears that way, loss of daytime heating and marine air, climo says best west as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 yea appears that way, loss of daytime heating and marine air, climo says best west as usual. Yeah I don't really expect much in CT outside of areas NW of Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I don't know why the GFS gets stupid with dewpoints. It's done that for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I don't know why the GFS gets stupid with dewpoints. It's done that for a while now. Yeah the last 2 years it's been whacky. Has traded places with the NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yeah the last 2 years it's been whacky. Has traded places with the NAM lol. NAM instability looks more realistic. Like you mentioned,it will come down to how unstable it gets which will be related to cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 RPM looks ominous @bobmaxon: Whoa. RPM model for around 8:00pm. SVR weather from ENY moves ESE. Must be watched. Download our APP to follow these. http://t.co/LZpnhMqeZE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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