2013 New England Severe General Discussion

[weatherwiz]

Also centers max SCP values right over ALB of 4-5. That's about the mean for historical tornado environments in the vicinity.

 

If I don't have to work we are thinking of going to Hudson, NY as a start spot.  Albany, NY has too much traffic and there are a few routes around Hudson which can get us in any direction if we need too.  

[OceanStWx]

Yes...forgot to mention that in a previous post...theta-e pooling looks pretty impressive so llvl moisture will not be a concern.  Wonder if we can get some dews of 65-66 (which is down in MD) to work up this way

 

Pretty rapid cloud top warming of the western NY MCS, so that shouldn't impede the progress of the warm front very much in the near term.

[weatherwiz]

Pretty rapid cloud top warming of the western NY MCS, so that shouldn't impede the progress of the warm front very much in the near term.

 

Awesome to hear!

 

Also noting some steeper mlvl lapse rates working in as well so hopefully we don't see any strong MCS activity overnight to screw those up.  

[weatherwiz]

 

I got a Virgin Mobile wireless air card b/c you don't have to sign up for a contract and I got service until June 26th but this is their coverage map

 

http://www.virginmobileusa.com/check-cell-phone-coverage

[joey2002]

If I don't have to work we are thinking of going to Hudson, NY as a start spot.  Albany, NY has too much traffic and there are a few routes around Hudson which can get us in any direction if we need too.  

 

Hudson sounds like a perfect place to start... and you can always travel north or south from there pretty easily!

[ct_yankee]

where are you looking at the RAP?  Few places i went only have 0z runs 

Wiz, try the COD site, they already have the 3z RAP - well, part of it, anyway. Lately COD has been way ahead of Twisterdata with model updates, in fact they seem to be about the the fastest of the free model sites these days.

[weatherMA]

 

I got a Virgin Mobile wireless air card b/c you don't have to sign up for a contract and I got service until June 26th but this is their coverage map

 

http://www.virginmobileusa.com/check-cell-phone-coverage

I thought you had an iphone?

[weatherwiz]

Hudson sounds like a perfect place to start... and you can always travel north or south from there pretty easily!

 

Thing that sucks is the route we'd take there doesn't seem to have any data coverage for Virgin mobile

[weatherwiz]

I thought you had an iphone?

 

I do but my laptop has Gr lvl 2 analyst 

[weatherwiz]

Wiz, try the COD site, they already have the 3z RAP - well, part of it, anyway. Lately COD has been way ahead of Twisterdata with model updates, in fact they seem to be about the the fastest of the free model sites these days.

 

That actually was the other site I was using!

 

Thanks though...I see they do every 3 hour runs and see the 3z is nearly complete!  

 

Thank you  

[Quincy]

Wiz, try the COD site, they already have the 3z RAP - well, part of it, anyway. Lately COD has been way ahead of Twisterdata with model updates, in fact they seem to be about the the fastest of the free model sites these days.

COD is my new favorite. Fast updating and windows for the Northeast. It's helpful to see the convective parameters at a glance too.

[weatherMA]

I do but my laptop has Gr lvl 2 analyst 

oh true okay

[weatherwiz]

Well the 3z RAP is quite impressive.  Although, when it comes to the RAP..just like the RUC it often seems to overdo parameters and sometimes vastly.  There are times when the RAP is incredibly accurate though, especially when you get cooling aloft towards evening and that model will be one of the only to increase instability.  I know the RUC back in 2008 was extremely useful and accurate.  

[ct_yankee]

COD is my new favorite. Fast updating and windows for the Northeast. It's helpful to see the convective parameters at a glance too.

Agree. I had stopped using them after their website redesign, but the speed factor and the regional views made me take another look recently, and I saw they fixed some of the problems I had with the new site, so yeah right now they're about the best.

[weatherwiz]

Agree. I had stopped using them after their website redesign, but the speed factor and the regional views made me take another look recently, and I saw they fixed some of the problems I had with the new site, so yeah right now they're about the best.

 

I've started using this again a week or so as well...really loving it. 

[andyhb]

New D1 has 5% tornado probs across a large part of the region...Paul where are you?

 

...NORTHEAST STATES INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY   OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH ONE OR TWO OTHER   CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ALSO FACTORS LATER   TODAY. TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DIURNALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS AT   LEAST GLANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN   CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE   STREAMS INTO THE REGION...STORMS MAY BE QUASI-FOCUSED ON A WARM   FRONT AND/OR TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE SUSTAINED   MULTICELLS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...AT LEAST 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER   SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SOME   SUPERCELLS. THUS...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT   ACQUIRE UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE   FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

[yoda]

5/15/15 Wiz.... good luck

..NORTHEAST STATES INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND    A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY  OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH ONE OR TWO OTHER  CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ALSO FACTORS LATER  TODAY. TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DIURNALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS AT  LEAST GLANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN  CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  STREAMS INTO THE REGION...STORMS MAY BE QUASI-FOCUSED ON A WARM  FRONT AND/OR TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE SUSTAINED  MULTICELLS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS  SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...AT LEAST 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER  SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SOME  SUPERCELLS. THUS...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT  ACQUIRE UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE  FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.    

[free_man]

Can't wait to track the damage.

[andyhb]

Latest RAP runs are putting out some beefy stuff for New England tomorrow. 250-350 m²/s² 0-3 km SRH by 21z and 2000+ J/kg CAPE. Some strongly curved low level hodographs as well.

[OceanStWx]

Latest RAP runs are putting out some beefy stuff for New England tomorrow. 250-350 m²/s² 0-3 km SRH by 21z and 2000+ J/kg CAPE. Some strongly curved low level hodographs as well.

 

SPC putting out some beefy stuff too. Casually mentioning an isolated tornado or two, but a 5% tornado risk which isn't all that common around here.

[weatherMA]

Wow even central mass in 5% TOR.

[andyhb]

I see wiz is on...prepare for pants tents.

[OceanStWx]

Perhaps the longest near term AFD section I've ever written. I have to say, I enjoy having to forecast for severe weather again even if it's at 3 AM.

[weatherwiz]

On mobile and jiist keep waking up every hour or so.

Anyways given the parameters many of the models are spitting out I'm not all that shocked over the 5% tornado probs. If later on its apparent we will see moderate instability I could see an upgrade to 30% for winds.

[weatherwiz]

Perhaps the longest near term AFD section I've ever written. I have to say, I enjoy having to forecast for severe weather again even if it's at 3 AM.

Very intriguing setup for sure!

And 18 years ago today was the Great Barrington tornado.

[TalcottWx]

I'm thinking this looks somewhat hopeful for the extreme western portions of New England. We'll see how the instability develops. Wherever that warm front sits is going to be an area to flag for spin ups. Then as we have seen before, the storms will decrease in severity rather quickly the further east they get from the boundary. If you are say, east of ORH, I doubt you see much today.

[weatherwiz]

If the NAM/GFS were spitting out numbers like the RAP were showing we'd be looking at quite an event today.  In fact, the RAP would be capable of perhaps the threat for a strong tornado if any discrete supercells could form.  Judging by the past though, I would think the RAP is overdone but the trends do need to be watched.  

 

Key is get this AM crap out as quickly as possible and get some heating and lapse rates to rebound

[OceanStWx]

 

Crude, but hopefully effective.

 

This is the NAM depiction of the situation around 21z this afternoon, which seems reasonable at this time. Warm front is laying roughly along the red line, with a surface trough axis just west of the Hudson Valley. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should be in the vicinity of this trough. Main theta-e axis will align along the Hudson Valley, with a likely secondary axis through the Connecticut Valley. Blue lines represent 0-3 km helicity, and image is theta-e. The area bounded within the purple oval is what I think is the greatest threat area right now, given the favorable timing for diurnal heating and position of boundaries.

 

Outside of this area severe weather is still possible, but the tornado threat looks the greatest here. Though some remnant outflow boundaries could locally enhance threats elsewhere.

[weatherwiz]

That's some pretty crazy helicity numbers.  If we are able to get 1500 or even 2000 Cape then some of those storms will really take off.  I'd aslo watch for the Valley areas where winds may locally back even more.  

[OceanStWx]

Mesoscale models (HRRR and SPC WRF included) have been toying around with the idea of a more discrete supercell near this trough/warm front intersection.

 

MI is scattering out pretty quickly behind this now weakening MCS, so we'll see if that trend can continue into New England.