2013 New England Severe General Discussion

[Cold Miser]

Tornado warning for a potentially large and dangerous TOR on ground in S/E michigan. Heads up tommorrow in western sne.

If a "tornado" touches ground in SNE and Wiz is not off from work to witness it, does said tornado truly exist?

[yoda]

If this looks good in the AM you can bet I'm asking my boss if I can not do it.  

 

I see you are not feeling well Wiz... is that a headache i sense coming on?

[weatherwiz]

I see you are not feeling well Wiz... is that a headache i sense coming on?

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Tornado warning for a potentially large and dangerous TOR on ground in S/E michigan. Heads up tommorrow in western sne.

Tippy?

[joey2002]

I hate living so far east during severe weather season... but the potential looks great around Albany into western SNE. 

[N. OF PIKE]

Tippy?

lol well that happend the day before the huge orh TOR way back when.

[weatherwiz]

Well the 0z NAM certainly grew closer to the 18z GFS

[OceanStWx]

I think our s/wv in question is situated over WI at this time. I just did a quick time of arrival based off WV imagery, and it supports the late show depicted by modeling. I have it more or less at the Hudson River by 00z.

[weatherwiz]

I think our s/wv in question is situated over WI at this time. I just did a quick time of arrival based off WV imagery, and it supports the late show depicted by modeling. I have it more or less at the Hudson River by 00z.

 

Really?  oh wow  

 

so I def have to go west tomorrow.  

 

 

EDIT:

 

have the s/w near there or the activity?  assuming the activity?

[joey2002]

Go west!!!

[weatherwiz]

Go west!!!

 

Discussing several options with my friend:

 

1) Ask my boss if he absolutely needs me.  I'm sure he would really love to have me since I know what I'm doing, but if he has the help to cover it would be fine.  

 

2) If the action really could be coming into the Hudson that late, I could be done by 6...7 the latest and we could just run west and intersect it at some point.  

 

3) If I have to work, then I told my friend to just go out and chase.  

[weatherMA]

I have tomorrow off from work...I would like to go west but I don't know. I've never chased before. I have one possible person to chase with but its tentative. I won't go alone or I'll probably kill myself lol. 

[Quincy]

Really looking solid for NY and probably into western Mass./southern VT. Question is, do the storms arrive too late to tap into instability across the lower Hudson Valley and northern CT?

I think there's a strong possibility of a SVR Watch and could even see a TOR Watch go up.

00z NAM looks better as does the 21z SREF. Maybe not widespread, but a relatively good threat of some potent storms...

[OceanStWx]

Really?  oh wow  

 

so I def have to go west tomorrow.  

 

 

EDIT:

 

have the s/w near there or the activity?  assuming the activity?

 

Well I was tracking the leading edge of the cooler WV imagery, so the lift associated with the s/wv. However, there will be pretty broad lift across the area well before the arrival of the main s/wv trough. So once that morning inversion is eroded storms could begin to fire just due to differential heating, etc.

 

Like you're well aware though, the best chance at anything with significant rotation to it will be tied to the warm frontal boundary. Instability by ALB is impressive, but low level helicity is driven by speed and not directional shear.

[weatherwiz]

Well I was tracking the leading edge of the cooler WV imagery, so the lift associated with the s/wv. However, there will be pretty broad lift across the area well before the arrival of the main s/wv trough. So once that morning inversion is eroded storms could begin to fire just due to differential heating, etc.

 

Like you're well aware though, the best chance at anything with significant rotation to it will be tied to the warm frontal boundary. Instability by ALB is impressive, but low level helicity is driven by speed and not directional shear.

 

The llvl winds certainly are strong, however, there really isn't much in the way of speed shear in the llvls...not much change between wind speeds between 925-700mb which is yielding to lower helicity values.  NAM has mainly SW sfc winds as well but if these back to S or SE more...llvl helicity will certainly boost some.  

[Quincy]

I didn't take a close look at LCL heights, but I'd imagine they're on the lower side too and that's always a plus. I think SREF had high probs for <1000m.

[OceanStWx]

The llvl winds certainly are strong, however, there really isn't much in the way of speed shear in the llvls...not much change between wind speeds between 925-700mb which is yielding to lower helicity values.  NAM has mainly SW sfc winds as well but if these back to S or SE more...llvl helicity will certainly boost some.  

 

I checked a few Bufkit soundings for the area, and ALB is around 150 m²/s² during the convective activity. If you look closer to the warm front (middle CT River Valley sites like 1V4 and LEB or even CON) helicity climbs to near 300.

[weatherwiz]

I didn't take a close look at LCL heights, but I'd imagine they're on the lower side too and that's always a plus. I think SREF had high probs for <1000m.

 

BDL around 750-800m or about so pretty low

[Quincy]

I checked a few Bufkit soundings for the area, and ALB is around 150 m²/s² during the convective activity. If you look closer to the warm front (middle CT River Valley sites like 1V4 and LEB or even CON) helicity climbs to near 300.

2z RAP has 150 down though most of CT. Hard to tell on graphics, but looks like 250+ in the ALB area by 20z.

[weatherwiz]

I checked a few Bufkit soundings for the area, and ALB is around 150 m²/s² during the convective activity. If you look closer to the warm front (middle CT River Valley sites like 1V4 and LEB or even CON) helicity climbs to near 300.

 

150 m2s2 is pretty shabby...especially around here and would be supportive of possible spin-ups.  But yeah...once you get a bit closer to the warm front helicity completely sky rockets.  

[weatherwiz]

2z RAP has 150 down though most of CT. Hard to tell on graphics, but looks like 250+ in the ALB area by 20z.

 

where are you looking at the RAP?  Few places i went only have 0z runs 

[Quincy]

where are you looking at the RAP? Few places i went only have 0z runs

Weatherbell. How about TwisterData? I can only look at certain sites on my phone.

[weatherwiz]

Weatherbell. How about TwisterData? I can only look at certain sites on my phone.

 

was using that...only had 0z 

[weatherwiz]

From twitter

 

stormchaser4850 (Johnny Kelly)

UPDATE: Numerous reports of MAJOR TORNADO DAMAGE in Genesee Co., Michigan tonight (People trapped in homes and in collapsed bar)

[OceanStWx]

150 m2s2 is pretty shabby...especially around here and would be supportive of possible spin-ups.  But yeah...once you get a bit closer to the warm front helicity completely sky rockets.  

 

Given the shear profiles, I'm expecting more in the way of clusters. However, my eye would be no the frontal boundary for something more interesting. The NAM is pretty bullish just north of the Capitol Region to about Glens Falls.

[weatherwiz]

Given the shear profiles, I'm expecting more in the way of clusters. However, my eye would be no the frontal boundary for something more interesting. The NAM is pretty bullish just north of the Capitol Region to about Glens Falls.

 

I agree...I think we should see more in the way of clusters.  Early on we will see discrete activity...like at initiation but storms should converge rather quickly.  If some decent instability can develop right along the front than we could certainly see some interesting cells...and we really wouldn't need alot of instability...just develop an instability axis and that's all you need.  

[weatherwiz]

Well GFS continues to look rather impressive and some of the point and click soundings show impressive hodo's near the ALB area.  

[Quincy]

Well GFS continues to look rather impressive and some of the point and click soundings show impressive hodo's near the ALB area.

Also centers max SCP values right over ALB of 4-5. That's about the mean for historical tornado environments in the vicinity.

[OceanStWx]

I agree...I think we should see more in the way of clusters.  Early on we will see discrete activity...like at initiation but storms should converge rather quickly.  If some decent instability can develop right along the front than we could certainly see some interesting cells...and we really wouldn't need alot of instability...just develop an instability axis and that's all you need.  

 

I think we'll probably see some pretty good theta-e pooling in the Hudson and Connecticut Valleys. Dew points in the low 60s aren't too far away from the lower Hudson Valley as things stand at this hour anyway.

[weatherwiz]

I think we'll probably see some pretty good theta-e pooling in the Hudson and Connecticut Valleys. Dew points in the low 60s aren't too far away from the lower Hudson Valley as things stand at this hour anyway.

 

Yes...forgot to mention that in a previous post...theta-e pooling looks pretty impressive so llvl moisture will not be a concern.  Wonder if we can get some dews of 65-66 (which is down in MD) to work up this way