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2013 New England Severe General Discussion

Quincy

By Quincy,
in New England

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

Next Sunday looks pretty decent right now! 

Certainly looks great for NY PA ONT.  if there's any type of lee trof it could be very interesting for W SNE.  We definitely need to hold onto a decent s/w and slp coming out of the lakes, though.  if the flow gets strung out, threat cancel.  Strong storms far wne Sunday PM night, heavy rainers overnight.  Could be very exciting if things work out, as we'll have an airmass supportive of severe weather, as well as a decent wind field.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Certainly looks great for NY PA ONT.  if there's any type of lee trof it could be very interesting for W SNE.  We definitely need to hold onto a decent s/w and slp coming out of the lakes, though.  if the flow gets strung out, threat cancel.  Strong storms far wne Sunday PM night, heavy rainers overnight.  Could be very exciting if things work out, as we'll have an airmass supportive of severe weather, as well as a decent wind field.

 

Looks like we could have some strong shear to work with as well.

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

"lee trof" was sort of a joke, Ryan will be in CO soon,  iirc. :>  But often times it seems we'll see a secondary severe maximum WNE/CNE if a front gets hung up late day across NY/PA, at least by June climo.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

Certainly looks great for NY PA ONT.  if there's any type of lee trof it could be very interesting for W SNE.  We definitely need to hold onto a decent s/w and slp coming out of the lakes, though.  if the flow gets strung out, threat cancel.  Strong storms far wne Sunday PM night, heavy rainers overnight.  Could be very exciting if things work out, as we'll have an airmass supportive of severe weather, as well as a decent wind field.

Nice not to see a marine taint. Sorry people out west, I know S winds are better for you. There would be plenty of instability and heating. Nothing really too alarming for anything widespread right now. I guess we hope the low comes in further south to make the day more interesting for actual severe.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

"lee trof" was sort of a joke, Ryan will be in CO soon,  iirc. :>  But often times it seems we'll see a secondary severe maximum WNE/CNE if a front gets hung up late day across NY/PA, at least by June climo.

 

I like where we appear to be in respect to the ridge...have chances to be under a more westerly flow aloft at 500mb if things setup correctly.  Could also be good perhaps later on in the period for some MCS activity spilling over from the Lakes

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

Anywhere near the coast will likely struggle to clear out especially the south coast. Hell, everyone struggles to clear out from what I see in BUFKIT. It's really messy. Crappy potential is high. I think the directional shear decreases as the day continues, so does the helicity. 

 

I think Wednesday is the day to break out the rain gauge and be happy your garden is being watered. Rain makers.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

BOX's take. Sounds right : 

*/WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

FOR THE MORNING...INSTABILITY HARD TO COME BY WITH ABSENCE OF AN
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AND LACK OF SURFACE DESTABILIZATION. SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL LEVELS WITH SIGNIFICANT 0-1/0-3 KM HELICITY ALONG
THE LIFTING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THIS
IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. BUT WITH
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR...ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE YIELDING A SMALL HAIL THREAT. BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AND SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. A STABLE
BOUNDARY BOUNDARY LAYER /DECOUPLED/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE
PROPAGATION OF THE WARM FRONT NORTH AND EAST WITH ATTENDANT CLOUD
COVER. SHOULD THE SUN BUST OUT...A CONVECTIVE THREAT IS CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2K J/KG OF CAPE...WITH
CONTINUED MODEST SHEAR. WHILE 0-1/0-3 KM HELICITIES WEAKEN...0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE. THE WEAKENED HELICITY IS
CONSEQUENTIAL OF SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS PARENT WITH NORTHWESTLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPH PROFILE SIGNIFIES LINE-
ECHO WAVE PATTERNS AND MULTI-CELLULAR STRUCTURES. CAN NOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL BOWING SEGMENTS. WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PUSH FREEZING LEVELS HIGHER LESSENING THE HAIL THREAT.

WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE OF A TORNADO THREAT...BUT IF WINDS AT THE
SURFACE BECOME MORE EASTERLY...A BRIEF SPIN-UP IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Actually sounded subdued to me and pretty typical

 

 

You mean Kevin hyped up and misrepresented a discussion? Shocking!

 

 

It does look like it could be semi-interesting if we get heating...but yeah, they pointed out a lot of potential issues like rising FRZ heights and helicity weakening as the day goes on. But NW flow aloft with a warm sector can def produce. Just hope the Euro goes back to warm sectoring us better than today's run which basically kept us in stratiform precip until after lunchtime.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

You mean Kevin hyped up and misrepresented a discussion? Shocking!

It does look like it could be semi-interesting if we get heating...but yeah, they pointed out a lot of potential issues like rising FRZ heights and helicity weakening as the day goes on. But NW flow aloft with a warm sector can def produce. Just hope the Euro goes back to warm sectoring us better than today's run which basically kept us in stratiform precip until after lunchtime.

Speaking of helicity..for those who do not know heres a great definition;

Helicity is related to:

(a): speed shear from surface to 3 km (about 700 hPa) - how much the wind speed changes over this altitude band.

(B): directional change of the wind over the same altitude band.

©: the strength of the low-level wind contributing to the speed / directional shear

Higher helicity values in the morning seem to be related to the pre warm front wind direction. When the wf comes through, then winds go sw and decreases the directinal shear and therefore the helicity. So either its no instability or increased shear. Pick your poison.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

It will also be interesting to see what happens with the lapse rates...the NAM is more meh while the GFS is pretty decent with the lapse rates...wonder if 0z GFS will stay consistent with that.

I think lapse rates will be getting worse rather than better as the day continues. I don't like warm fronts... it seems like so much more of a battle. Sure there is plenty of lift but you have warm air surging in, cloud problem... etc. Sunday has such a better story line if it comes to fruition. Cold front, maximized daytime heating, at least marginal shear. Wish we could have an eml or cap to help out and get us a widespread event. With the waa we get high shear/low instability and caa low shear/high instability. Seems to always be one or the other. But as I always think, if there is no modest ML lapse rates, forget it and understand we aren't seeing widespread severe.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

SPC is meh... though there is a SLGT risk

..NORTHEAST STATES    THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN  QUEBEC AND INFLUENCING THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT IS  FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.  A  35 KT WSWLY LLJ WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/ INTO THE REGION AND ACT TO DESTABILIZE  THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  FAIRLY STRONG  H85-H7 FLOW /40-50 KT/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS  SHOW 500-1250 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING WITHIN A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL  WLY WIND PROFILE WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE  THREAT.  
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