CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 When are you going Ryan? Flying into Denver on 6/8 then going wherever. We will do the Dakotas if we need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Flying into Denver on 6/8 then going wherever. We will do the Dakotas if we need to. You think SE PA could be a good spot Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Flying into Denver on 6/8 then going wherever. We will do the Dakotas if we need to. Looks like we'll have troughing over the PAC NW so perhaps the Dakotas. But you never know....sometimes you get that wrly continental flow aloft and weak upslope SE winds at the surface and that's all you need for those sct supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Looks like we'll have troughing over the PAC NW so perhaps the Dakotas. But you never know....sometimes you get that wrly continental flow aloft and weak upslope SE winds at the surface and that's all you need for those sct supercells. Yeah exactly. Doesn't look like a monster ridge so I imagine we'll have a pretty fast flow with some s/ws racing through the N Rockies and upper midwest. That... plus scattered supercells in the high plains I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 27, 2013 Author Share Posted May 27, 2013 Wednesday doesn't look too impressive at this point as we don't maximize daytime heating and clouds, drizzle/fog try to hang around. Typical for these parts. If we can clear out though, it might get interesting. Better hopes for a backdoor cold front or similar frontal passage over the weekend or early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Backdoor front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 NAM looks better now for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 NAM looks better now for Wednesday. Looking at that now. Better instability into western CT by 18z along with decent shear/helicity. Right now thinking perhaps NE PA/SE NY area as a target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 0-3km EHI values pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Anyone know if ne mass 128 area ever had a tornado that was more then an ef1 on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Anyone know if ne mass 128 area ever had a tornado that was more then an ef1 on record August 21st, 1951 F2 August 25th, 1958 F2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 November 21st, 1956 F2 July 11th, 1958 F2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Wiz thanks, do you know what towns were hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Will try to find the towns but as far as counties goes: August 21st, 1951 was in Essex November 21st, 1956 was in Worcester (guess that might not count...it was in far NE Worcester county...not sure if that goes inside of 128 or not) July 11th, 1958 Middlesex and Duke August 25th, 1958 Middlesex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Looking at that now. Better instability into western CT by 18z along with decent shear/helicity. Right now thinking perhaps NE PA/SE NY area as a target. It really will all depend on any MCS activity in the morning and how we're able to destabilize and keep winds from veering to limit convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Sorry...actually zooming in, there has never been a tornado greater than an F1 inside of Rt. 128...the closest one was August 25th, 1958 and it occurred at 4:00 AM. Maybe it was Lynnfield but it was right near Newbury St right near I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 It really will all depend on any MCS activity in the morning and how we're able to destabilize and keep winds from veering to limit convergence. This will be something we probably decide Wednesday morning of where to head out. I know my boss is not going to be happy with the threat of rain/storms. Too bad they can't generate any instability in NE PA tomorrow...helicity is through the roof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 This will be something we probably decide Wednesday morning of where to head out. I know my boss is not going to be happy with the threat of rain/storms. Too bad they can't generate any instability in NE PA tomorrow...helicity is through the roof! Yeah it's all about overperforming instability. If that can happen and we're able to trigger something watching out... will be an enivonrment rich with low level shear and nice long and curved hodographs (for us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Yeah it's all about overperforming instability. If that can happen and we're able to trigger something watching out... will be an enivonrment rich with low level shear and nice long and curved hodographs (for us). It will be interesting to see what happens with the lapse rates. The 12z NAM bufkit, has some pretty steep lapse rates here, however, after 3 PM or so, the lapse rates really weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Sorry...actually zooming in, there has never been a tornado greater than an F1 inside of Rt. 128...the closest one was August 25th, 1958 and it occurred at 4:00 AM. Maybe it was Lynnfield but it was right near Newbury St right near I95 thanks wiz for lookin, just amazing to me that no f1 or greater tornadoes have happend inside 128. Lookin at the path of the great orh tornado which went to just ne of fayville mass , i prob would have caught a glimpse of that when i was near the western border of framingham. (Fayville is just sw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 thanks wiz for lookin, just amazing to me that no f1 or greater tornadoes have happend inside 128. Lookin at the path of the great orh tornado which went to just ne of fayville mass , i prob would have caught a glimpse of that when i was near the western border of framingham. (Fayville is just sw) No problem! Here'a great site for tornado data. Even has plots of the tornadoes...some of the plots may not be completely accurate but this site is amazing. This should be linked to MA http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/custom/2746492/map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 The op GFS would be total storm porn for my chase out west. As for closer to home the GFS is still very interesting for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 The op GFS would be total storm porn for my chase out west. As for closer to home the GFS is still very interesting for Wednesday. All about the cape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Next Sunday is the best looking day to me, but we'll see. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 How's the euro look for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 How's the euro look for Wednesday Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Ugly That's not good. Just had a chance to look at GFS bufkit soundings and really not bad...in fact, maybe even slightly better than the NAM, especially with the steep lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Toss Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Every model has rain Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 18z NAM still looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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