free_man Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Severe-free zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 ughhh...my friend comes down tomorrow and doesn't look like chance for much really through next weekend...but looks like it could be active in the Plains and MS Valley this week so perhaps that can slide east for the following week. Even if we would have to go to like PA or NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 That stinks paul, is there no hope for thur/fri/sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 That stinks paul, is there no hope for thur/fri/sat Nothing that stands out right now. But I do think the following week could have some action as that trough continues to slowly slide east. I guess if we have to go out to like may be IA I could talk to my friend about it lol...just stay there for a few nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Wednesday could be a very interesting severe weather day. There is a tremendous amount of low level shear with NW winds above the boundary layer and S/SW winds at the surface. Hodographs look very impressive... with enough 0-1km helicity to be concerned about tornadoes. 500mb flow is weak-ish... around 30 knots... but there is quite a bit of directional shear in the 0-6km level. The question is how much instability we can manage. The GFS is pretty juicy while the NAM Is a bit more meh with a more marine influence. Best chance for anything would be Berkshires/Litchfield Hills but this is worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Wednesday could be a very interesting severe weather day. There is a tremendous amount of low level shear with NW winds above the boundary layer and S/SW winds at the surface. Hodographs look very impressive... with enough 0-1km helicity to be concerned about tornadoes. 500mb flow is weak-ish... around 30 knots... but there is quite a bit of directional shear in the 0-6km level. The question is how much instability we can manage. The GFS is pretty juicy while the NAM Is a bit more meh with a more marine influence. Best chance for anything would be Berkshires/Litchfield Hills but this is worth watching. I have to work that Hershey event that was cancelled Thursday so I probably wouldn't be able to chase. I'll be flipping pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Wednesday could be a very interesting severe weather day. There is a tremendous amount of low level shear with NW winds above the boundary layer and S/SW winds at the surface. Hodographs look very impressive... with enough 0-1km helicity to be concerned about tornadoes. 500mb flow is weak-ish... around 30 knots... but there is quite a bit of directional shear in the 0-6km level. The question is how much instability we can manage. The GFS is pretty juicy while the NAM Is a bit more meh with a more marine influence. Best chance for anything would be Berkshires/Litchfield Hills but this is worth watching. Midwest EML? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Midwest EML? Doesn't have that look in the model soundings but it's worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Doesn't have that look in the model soundings but it's worth keeping an eye on. If this still looks good by Tuesday I will try and talk to my boss. He knows how upset I was about June 1st, 2011 and the baseball game. I'm sure he would let me not work but he would probably prefer if I did. Also...if there is a chance of rain or storms he will not be happy. On Thursday I told him this WEdnesday looked like it would be pretty nice...oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Wednesday is a day to watch, we'll see how much instability will be mustered, and also whatever seabreeze/backdoor progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 The 18z GFS would be a major severe weather outbreak on Wednesday. Tornado potential too. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 The 18z GFS would be a major severe weather outbreak on Wednesday. Tornado potential too. Impressive. I would have to doubt that New England has had many tornado threats within 5 days of a storm that produced snow in spots. Then again, maybe the historical gurus know of any such set-ups that brought tornado threats after an April snowfall or maybe one of the few May snow events we have had in the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 I would have to doubt that New England has had many tornado threats within 5 days of a storm that produced snow in spots. Then again, maybe the historical gurus know of any such set-ups that brought tornado threats after an April snowfall or maybe one of the few May snow events we have had in the past? Not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Not true Cool... got any examples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 I would have to doubt that New England has had many tornado threats within 5 days of a storm that produced snow in spots. Then again, maybe the historical gurus know of any such set-ups that brought tornado threats after an April snowfall or maybe one of the few May snow events we have had in the past? Definitely rare but the biggest example is 10/3/1979 F4 at Bradley with the earliest measurable of 1.3 on 10/10/1079 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Definitely rare but the biggest example is 10/3/1979 F4 at Bradley with the earliest measurable of 1.3 on 10/10/1079warm then cold has to be easier than snow then severe in the same week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Ryan just listed the only example I knew off the top of my head There could be others but the thing is...May snow is "relatively rare" anyways here as well as May tornadoes...May is usually much more kind to PA/NY (although 1985/1998 really help out with those numbers) and in the fall we typically don't see October tornadoes or even October snowfall...of course it can happen in northern New England and the high elevations. If there are other examples though which meet the criteria you mentioned it would be interesting and perhaps there could be some sort of connection...if anything it would just show how violate the weather pattern has been going from one extreme to the other. I was talking to this with a friend on the phone earlier today and noted this...look in April of 2011 how extreme the weather pattern was with all those tornadoes and how the pattern shifted east gradually and eventually we had our event...well look at this year how several weeks ago, they were getting record cold/snows in the mid-west and we ended up seeing a taste of that. Sometimes these extremes in one location, or region, can be a pre-cursor of what to expect downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 warm then cold has to be easier than snow then severe in the same week. Yeah that's what I was thinking...unseasonably warm airmass in Oct or Apr with severe storms, strong cold front then snow. The data set is very limited I'm sure, just due to lack of snow in months like Sept/May when I'd think the atmosphere would be more primed for severe weather like tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Definitely rare but the biggest example is 10/3/1979 F4 at Bradley with the earliest measurable of 1.3 on 10/10/1079 Oh wow...yeah that's a true case. I was thinking there might have been like an F-1 or F-0 in a brief weak spin up somewhere in New England within a week of snow in the area, but not an F-4 lol. I bet NY and PA would have more examples as they are more prone to wild severe and early/late season snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Got my virgin mobile broadband2go air card and activated it today!!! Paying $55 for the month of unlimited 4G and 5G's of 3G speeds. Just went on a drive and tested it and while not the fastest it worked! This, along with having gr lvl 2 analysts will be a MAJOR BOOST to my friend and I storm chasing...in the past we would have to stop at McDonalds or wherever had free wifi for radar checks and it wasted time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Looks like some ridging for my chase trip in the central plains based on euro/gfs ensembles. May wind up having to shift everything north to SD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 33F for the low this morning. Not bad for Memorial Day but I guess that's why many folks around here say don't plant tomatoes until after Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Looks like WF stuff Wednesday, but all the good stuff may ride to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Looks like WF stuff Wednesday, but all the good stuff may ride to our south. yeah... maybe be quite meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Looks like some ridging for my chase trip in the central plains based on euro/gfs ensembles. May wind up having to shift everything north to SD? AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 AWT I'm fine with that... was expecting to head north anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 When are you going Ryan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 yeah... maybe be quite meh. Oh, well. Maybe next time. Happy Memorial Day, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Oh, well. Maybe next time. Happy Memorial Day, everyone. I am actually pleased at this news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 My friend and I could head south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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