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2013 New England Severe General Discussion


Quincy

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Ryan,

 

What time do you think we start to see the heavier rainfall move in?  We have Hershey track tonight at 5 and when I go into work my boss is going to ask me what I think.  The WRF shows the steadier/heavier axis of rainfall arriving around 7 PM but I'm thinking we could certainly see some more widespread activity move in prior to that.  

 

I know we're going to see on and off showers/t'storms during the day which is fine...obviously lightning would cancel it but if it's just hit and miss showers or on and off that isn't an issue.

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Meh on today

 

I was impressed to find that the BD air mass is STILL plaguing NE MA.   There's like no support for it synoptically, yet it persists. 

 

Btw, nice reporting on the false storm report.  I tried to tell Weatherwiz and gang the day those images were posted that it was just a beaver tale feature, and wasn't associated/connect with an organized meso, and got a lot of "I don't -- looks legit to me".    Nice to have that validated. 

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How many tornado warnings today? Can we go 3/3?

 

Looking at the sat/rad trends alone suggests that the threat is shifting away from that and more toward heavy rain. Deep layer flow appears to have lost the direction component to helicity.  

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I was impressed to find that the BD air mass is STILL plaguing NE MA. There's like no support for it synoptically, yet it persists.

Btw, nice reporting on the false storm report. I tried to tell Weatherwiz and gang the day those images were posted that it was just a beaver tale feature, and wasn't associated/connect with an organized meso, and got a lot of "I don't -- looks legit to me". Nice to have that validated.

Good call!

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That scud pic from vortex 95 reminds me that on that evening i was driving north on 95 and was trying to get pics as it was on the northside of the highway by a cpl miles near / north of woburn exits. Look'd beautiful but trees/buildings sort ruin the viewing to an extent. Then i recall it absolutely began to pour 20 mins later in wakefield,ma

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Pretty surprising to see an MCD issued with 60% probability of a watch to follow. 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1023 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE       VALID 231523Z - 231800Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT      SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL SEVERE   HAIL HAZARD WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS FAR   ERN PA/NRN NJ. A WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WHERE GREATER   CLUSTER/LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS APPARENT.      DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN   RADAR IMAGERY FROM NEAR THE ABE/TTN TO 20 NW EWR AREA AS CONVECTIVE   TEMPERATURES OFF THE 12Z APG/WAL RAOBS HAVE BEEN BREACHED WITH   MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IN 15Z METARS. AMIDST A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER   60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...MLCAPE HAS ALREADY REACHED 500-1000 J/KG.   MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE RIGHT   ENTRANCE REGION OF A FAST UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL   CONVECTION WHICH MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS   PRIMARILY PRODUCING SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE   HAIL.      ..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013
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