Quincy Posted May 11, 2013 Author Share Posted May 11, 2013 Early morning RAP looks bullish wrt the ingredients at least. 6z NAM simulated radar shows a squall line moving into western CT by 4pm, and it looks decent until it begins to collapse with loss of daytime heating and interaction with a more stable air-mass in the CT River valley by 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Yawn for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 9:31 AM, CoastalWx said: Yawn for today. I think your yawning might be do to Bryce waking you--that's pretty earlly post even for you! Would be nice to get a storm, but I'm ready to merely enjoy a cool, showery kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 9:43 AM, moneypitmike said: I think your yawning might be do to Bryce waking you--that's pretty earlly post even for you! Would be nice to get a storm, but I'm ready to merely enjoy a cool, showery kind of day. I think your area runs the best risk of getting good storms. Other than that, I'm not sure it's much of anything for most other than typical tstms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Wind damage for everyone seems to be the big threat today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 10:28 AM, Wx Hype said: Wind damage for everyone seems to be the big threat today For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 11, 2013 Author Share Posted May 11, 2013 Still a meh/marginal setup, but some drier air over eastern PA will try to move in. This may lead to some minimal destabilization by midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 If we can muster up some some today we'll see some severe. Can't even rule out some near 1'' hail or so with high helicity is we can get 1000-1250 Cape...mesoanaylsis shows 1000 up to NY/CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 The line is already passing through BGM...not going to give us much time for much sun really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 10:28 AM, Wx Hype said: Wind damage for everyone seems to be the big threat today I'm in the fallout shelter with my leather helmet on just to be safe. I don't think much severe here too strong a wind off the south side will knock down any storms as they move east of about Rte 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Skies starting to get a bit brighter here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Today is certainly not a great setup by any means, however, helicity values are pretty high and LCL's are extremely low. Vertical shear should also continue increasing as the afternoon goes on. Lack of instability is certainly an issue and satellite doesn't really show any substantial breaks in the clouds until you get towards DCA. Anyways, mlvl lapse rates have slightly increased and we do have 500-1000 J/KG of SBCape just to our west. If we can really get 1000 J/KG into at least western regions you certainly will have to watch any cores that develop. Extremely marginal but certainly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Still pretty early, would like to see some pockets of >1000j/kg sbcape show up before getting too interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 4:35 PM, BIrving said: Still pretty early, would like to see some pockets of >1000j/kg sbcape show up before getting too interested. It's possible we can get some breaks of sun just out ahead of the line but we'll see. We'll certainly need to see some instability though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Even if we get sun...showers ahead of the line are killing mlvl lapse rates. Will be hard to get much instability really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 4:55 PM, weatherwiz said: It's possible we can get some breaks of sun just out ahead of the line but we'll see. We'll certainly need to see some instability though Yeah, that would help. It looks like the SPC slight risk aligns with where the best instability is present, basically cutting off near Jersey/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 5:11 PM, BIrving said: Yeah, that would help. It looks like the SPC slight risk aligns with where the best instability is present, basically cutting off near Jersey/NY. Yeah they have stronger instability down that way. We did have 500-1000 J up to the NY?CTborder, however, showers have been developing and we've seen mlvl lapse rates weaken so instability has decreased. Just have to watch and see if anything gets going where the better instability is. If they can get action then it could spill into perhaps SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 A little development back towards BGM, too. Maybe some storms can spill into WNE later, but "not really much to see here". next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 With regard to instability in CT, it seems all the models have now backed off their earlier optimism. GFS is the only model still showing a small area of CAPE = 1000 that barely extends into a part of SNE. Satellite trends are not encouraging either, any sunlight will likely be minimal in area and brief in duration. In short, as others have already said, it's looking very meh. Cold still be a surprise or two, but if so it will be because of unpredictable small-scale interactions, again as others have already said. Worth keeping an eye on, I suppose, if you have nothing else to do today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Certainly appears as if there are more and more breaks developing out ahead of the line with an area of clearing racing northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Wiz, threat looks real down here today. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 6:13 PM, sbos_wx said: Wiz, threat looks real down here today. Thoughts? Pretty solid presence of instability down your way along with some pretty strong shear. Should have multiple lines of t'storms, all with the potential to produce damaging winds. While helicity isn't really high, there is enough vertical shear present along to where large hail (1'') could be possible in the really strong cores and can't even rule out some rotation...especially with the cells capable of large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Wow...12z WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Also, has the line dying as it move into central CT...like quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 That's a beast west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 7:42 PM, Ginxy said: That's a beast west of NYC Even been some weak rotation within the cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 7:52 PM, weatherwiz said: Even been some weak rotation within the cell Had a good couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On 5/11/2013 at 7:54 PM, Ginxy said: Had a good couplet nice bowing structure as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Would have been more interesting had we generated sunshine...oh well...it's early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Looking potent to my nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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