Mid May cold snap

[Sugarloaf1989]

Gun in your mouth type forecast for Fairbanks with the cold and snow reloading and heading south in Central Alaska again. Really amazing cold when you consider that daylight length is now nearly 19 hours and that the normal temperature split is 61/37:

 

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered sprinkles and flurries. Lows in the mid 30s. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph.

Friday: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers and snow showers in the morning. Rain and snow likely after noon. No snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds to 10 mph.

Friday Night: Cloudy. Rain and snow likely in the evening. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Local gusts around 25 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. A chance of rain showers after noon. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Local gusts around 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=AKZ222

 

 

Potential historic cold weather:

 

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
331 AM AKDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CENTER WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. TWO
DISTINCT LOW CENTERS ARE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WRANGEL ISLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME REORIENTED
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...BY SATURDAY THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST AND
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD.

AT THE SURFACE...A 991 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND WILL MOVE TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO 250 MILES NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FILLING TO AROUND 995 MB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A SHARPLY COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE AS COLD AS -18
TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS TODAY...AND AS COLD AS -14 TO -16 DEGREES
CELSIUS SATURDAY. AT FAIRBANKS...AN 850 MB TEMPERATURE OF
-14 DEGREES CELSIUS WOULD BE THE COLDEST EVER OBSERVED THIS
LATE IN THE SEASON. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY IN THE 30S. SNOW
OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD.

PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST TODAY...
WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...OR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SNOW...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

 

[Mr Torchey]

Man, Euro says we may have to add on to this thread. Potential record cold next weekend? Possible on the Euro. Long ways out though.

Strange month, talk of very cold weather yet all 4 majors above normal for may without any heat.

[N. OF PIKE]

Strange month, talk of very cold weather yet all 4 majors above normal for may without any heat.

lol strange is right, usually this much sun would yield temps +5 or so since the normal below ave days are wet and chilly. I mean i bet the average day with full sun in mid may is Def 70 and seve had soo many sunny days

[ORH_wxman]

Strange month, talk of very cold weather yet all 4 majors above normal for may without any heat.

 

 

Our rainy period was quite mild...very high mins. So we didn't see any big daytime heat this month, but lows in the mid 50s helped build up positive departures before the cold snap.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Hartford Bradley is a whopping + 0.1F on the month. There have been some large negative departures there the last three days.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Record cold and snow amounts:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKDT THU MAY 16 2013

...LATE WINTER STORM TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL COMBINE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ON FRIDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF WINTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL NEVER BEFORE SEEN THIS LATE IN THE SEASON.

AKZ101-171330-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0035.130518T0300Z-130518T2100Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
410 PM AKDT THU MAY 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO
1 PM AKDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1
PM AKDT SATURDAY.

* SNOW...3 TO 6 INCHES WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE AFTER 7 PM FRIDAY AND
  TAPER OFF TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED
  IN HEAVY SNOWFALL.

 

[powderfreak]

Killington Peak, Vermont had 4" of snow in August of 1984 at 4,000' of elevation, I am not sure what storm that was related to.

You sure that wasn't August 1986 (the winter Will referred to as being really cold)?

I just ask because Mansfield COOP had no snow in AUG 1984 but recorded measurable snow in AUG 1986.

[tamarack]

You sure that wasn't August 1986 (the winter Will referred to as being really cold)?

I just ask because Mansfield COOP had no snow in AUG 1984 but recorded measurable snow in AUG 1986.

 

Can't recall any extreme coolness in August 1984 (in Ft.Kent) but we did see flakes in late August 1982.  By 1986 I lived south of Augusta in the banana belt, also means I missed the 20"+ pre-Thanksgiving dump in N.Maine that year.

 

Drove thru dz on the way to work this morning, not enough to wet the roads but wipers were needed.  Fed considerable numbers of blackflies in the Kingfield area yest afternoon, though they weren't yet biting farther north near Flagstaff Lake.

[Sugarloaf1989]

You sure that wasn't August 1986 (the winter Will referred to as being really cold)?

I just ask because Mansfield COOP had no snow in AUG 1984 but recorded measurable snow in AUG 1986.

 

 

I got the year confused, sorry for that, it was August of 1982. Mt Washington had snow on August 21st-22nd and again on August 28th-29th. It looks to have been a cool and wet month with 18 days out of 31 below 50F and only one sunny day according to Weather Underground.

 

I have a book about Killington, that's how I know that it snowed on Killington Peak that year in August. Unfortunately, no date is given for the snowfall.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Less than four months now until the 9/15 frost date for Mt Tolland.

[eekuasepinniW]

This talk of cold is alarming.  What sort of cold?  I was planning on beginning planting on Monday.  Ideally, I want lower 50's but the occasional 48 would be ok.

[Damage In Tolland]

Less than four months now until the 9/15 frost date for Mt Tolland.

First freeze typically isn't until mid - late October, don't get frosts on fall and certainly not in Sept

[N. OF PIKE]

Some 30's in cold spots tonite, beautiful

[Sugarloaf1989]

The endless winter of 2012 continues in Alaska with snow currently in Anchorage and 35F:

 

http://www.borealisbroadband.net/Vid-Sheraton1.htm

[ORH_wxman]

The endless winter of 2012 continues in Alaska with snow currently in Anchorage and 35F:

 

http://www.borealisbroadband.net/Vid-Sheraton1.htm

 

 

The Nenana Ice Classic still going...now the 2nd latest date in their 97 years of record. The tripod needs to make it about another 3 days to get the 1964 record.

[CoastalWx]

That's amazing. Anchorage is going to shatter the record. Super impressive,

[ORH_wxman]

That's amazing. Anchorage is going to shatter the record. Super impressive,

 

 

Yeah the northern plains had their December 1989 last month...Alaska is having theirs this month..well they kind of had it in April too, this month is going to shatter some pretty tough records. Several sites may challenge their all time May low temps, even though its 17 days into the month. Maybe we'll get ours again sometime soon.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah the northern plains had their December 1989 last month...Alaska is having theirs this month..well they kind of had it in April too, this month is going to shatter some pretty tough records. Several sites may challenge their all time May low temps, even though its 17 days into the month. Maybe we'll get ours again sometime soon.

We'll get ours eventually. Maybe all this blocking will melt the ice over the north pole and cause a ring of ice to form from 50-60N lol.

[dendrite]

MOS keeps dropping lower for CON tonight...MAV is now down to 34F.

[CoastalWx]

MOS keeps dropping lower for CON tonight...MAV is now down to 34F.

Tomorrow night will be chilly too. Awesome weather. Swamp azz season will be here soon enough so any day where we can grap temps near 70 is fine with me.

[ORH_wxman]

We'll get ours eventually. Maybe all this blocking will melt the ice over the north pole and cause a ring of ice to form from 50-60N lol.

 

 

We've "lucked out" in terms of the cold here. The northeast and Quebec have been a bit of an island so far this month surrounded by cold.

 

But the source regions remain cold for now which is what helps fuel these glancing blows. If the Euro was right, next weekend would probably break some record lows.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

I do like those weather bell maps even if they run a tick cold. Nice display of global temps.

[CoastalWx]

In other news, equatorial Pacfic is an ice cube despite some warmer water under the surface.

[ORH_wxman]

I do like those weather bell maps even if they run a tick cold. Nice display of global temps.

 

 

Their spatial distribution is accurate, they just run about a tenth or two cold celsius on the composite vs the '81-'10 average. But on the monthly scale, that is not really noticeable....its not going to really change -3C in a spot...you can maybe say it was -2.85C.

[CoastalWx]

Their spatial distribution is accurate, they just run about a tenth or two cold celsius on the composite vs the '81-'10 average. But on the monthly scale, that is not really noticeable....its not going to really change -3C in a spot...you can maybe say it was -2.85C.

Yeah exactly....gives the overall picture which is really all we care about...well, all I care about anyways. I'm not gonna fuss over a couple of tents of a degree.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Accumulating snowfall in downtown Anchorage on May 17th during the middle of the afternoon:

 

http://www.borealisbroadband.net/vid-townsquare.htm

[Ginx snewx]

Accumulating snowfall in downtown Anchorage on May 17th during the middle of the afternoon:

http://www.borealisbroadband.net/vid-townsquare.htm

My brother lives there, totally sick of it. Pete's best friend Pete in Willow has SN+ with expected and 20 OTG. Short short summer

[Sugarloaf1989]

It's currently 30.4F in Fairbanks, Alaska and 28.7F on Mt Washington, New Hampshire. It's amazing how cold that mountain is.

[beavis1729]

Yeah the northern plains had their December 1989 last month...Alaska is having theirs this month..well they kind of had it in April too, this month is going to shatter some pretty tough records. Several sites may challenge their all time May low temps, even though its 17 days into the month. Maybe we'll get ours again sometime soon.

Incredible that the Nenana Ice Classic continues to this date.

 

44 consecutive days of below normal temps in Fairbanks, going back to April 4.

 

Fairbanks monthly temps:

March 2013:  7.1 (departure -4.3)  

April 2013:  18.0 (departure -14.5)

May 2013 to date:  35.6 (departure -10.8)

 

Also:

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK

700 PM AKDT TUE MAY 7 2013

...FAIRBANKS COLDEST APRIL 3RD THROUGH MAY 7TH...

IF YOU THINK...OR FEEL...THAT THE PAST 5 WEEKS IN FAIRBANKS HAS

BEEN ONE OF COLDEST 5 WEEK PERIODS THIS LATE IN SPRING...YOU ARE

CORRECT. THE 5 WEEKS ENDING MAY 7, 2013 WILL GO ON THE RECORD

BOOKS AS THE COLDEST APRIL 3RD THOUGH MAY 7TH IN FAIRBANKS

RECORDED HISTORY. RECORDS DATE BACK 109 YEARS TO 1904.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FROM APRIL 3RD THROUGH MAY 7TH OF THIS

YEAR IS 19.9 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY EVENING. IN

SECOND PLACE IS THE YEAR 1924 WITH 20.6 DEGREES...3RD IS 1911 WITH

22.6...4TH IS 1927 WITH 23.6...AND 5TH IS 1948 WITH 24.6 DEGREES.

FAIRBANKS COLDEST APRIL 3RD THROUGH MAY 7TH PERIODS ON RECORD:

   YEAR........AVERAGE TEMPERATURE(F)

1. 2013........19.9

2. 1924........20.6

3. 1911........22.6

4. 1927........23.6

5. 1948........24.6

[Baroclinic Zone]

38f