CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Remember those who knew months ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 I would almost rather go into winter expecting very little...I hate seeing real good progs all summer and fall. The hype will start flowing and at this rate, folks will be expecting 2000-2001 to walk through, which brought 200" to Green Mtn villages (with like 5 feet of pack) while upper elevations had 400-500" and a 12-foot snowpack. Or in SNE the expectation will be 95-96 if enough folks jump onboard, lol. We should just expect 2001-2002 and then no one can be disappointed, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 I would almost rather go into winter expecting very little...I hate seeing real good progs all summer and fall. The hype will start flowing and at this rate, folks will be expecting 2000-2001 to walk through, which brought 200" to Green Mtn villages (with like 5 feet of pack) while upper elevations had 400-500" and a 12-foot snowpack. Or in SNE the expectation will be 95-96 if enough folks jump onboard, lol. We should just expect 2001-2002 and then no one can be disappointed, lol. Those outlooks should always be taken with a grain of salt. Hell remember when everyone was cancelling winter in early feb? Whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Those outlooks should always be taken with a grain of salt. Hell remember when everyone was cancelling winter in early feb? Whoops. Oh yeah, most certainly... you wait though...by Halloween the hype for an epic record winter will be uncontrollable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Oh yeah, most certainly... you wait though...by Halloween the hype for an epic record winter will be uncontrollable I hate hype. It used to be fun, now it's getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 10, 2013 Author Share Posted August 10, 2013 I would almost rather go into winter expecting very little...I hate seeing real good progs all summer and fall. The hype will start flowing and at this rate, folks will be expecting 2000-2001 to walk through, which brought 200" to Green Mtn villages (with like 5 feet of pack) while upper elevations had 400-500" and a 12-foot snowpack. Or in SNE the expectation will be 95-96 if enough folks jump onboard, lol. We should just expect 2001-2002 and then no one can be disappointed, lol. I expect a huge winter period. Of course I could be wrong and if so...oh well...life goes on...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 I expect a huge winter period. Of course I could be wrong and if so...oh well...life goes on...lol The squirrels are scrambling, Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 10, 2013 Author Share Posted August 10, 2013 The squirrels are scrambling, Jerry. Those mofos suck. They lied to me big time in the fall of 2011...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Worried , very concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Worried , very concerned Well that settles it then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 ENSO has been dropping rapidly so we are likely to see more of a gradient pattern despite the Niño-like SST profile in the North Pacific. I also think the +PDO look will fade into the autumn as the global atmosphere shifts towards a cold ENSO look more thoroughly. SST in the North Atlantic don't necessarily favor a -NAO with a reverse tripole having prevailed this summer, as well as the first +NAO summer in five years. I think I'd be skeptical of the ECM's depiction of blocking but some of the analogs do suggest it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Worried , very concerned See now you get it....play it conservative, then it's a win-win no matter what. We have an awful winter, you can say you were right. We have a great winter, you win anyway with snow/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 The QBO is one red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 See now you get it....play it conservative, then it's a win-win no matter what. We have an awful winter, you can say you were right. We have a great winter, you win anyway with snow/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Can't wait to dust off the kiteboard this season. The blizzard option will always be on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 The QBO is one red flag. Although the 30mb level may be in the process of flipping as we head into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 An extremely boring shift at work has led me to look at youtube videos of the big Feb and Mar snowstorms around here. I definitely have a sickness....I'm ill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 The QBO is one red flag.We have a positive QBO, correct? I know the +QBO is only associated with stratospheric warming episodes with an active sun, which we certainly don't have. Overall, I believe most warming events have happened during a -QBO looking at the Holton-Tan relationships . I think another red flag for winter is the rapid cooling of ENSO and lack of tripole in the Atlantic which might make high latitude blocking and particularly -NAO periods hard to come by. Definitely mixed signals there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 We have a positive QBO, correct? I know the +QBO is only associated with stratospheric warming episodes with an active sun, which we certainly don't have. Overall, I believe most warming events have happened during a -QBO looking at the Holton-Tan relationships . I think another red flag for winter is the rapid cooling of ENSO and lack of tripole in the Atlantic which might make high latitude blocking and particularly -NAO periods hard to come by. Definitely mixed signals there. Yeah QBO is positive, but may try to reverse this winter. There is certainly much more than the QBO, so I'm not terribly worried. Also, despite the vortex being over the N Pole, we still have had times of a -NAO. We simply don't know how it will behave later this fall and winter, but the overall base decadal state seems to want to support one. The Pacific has been our friend so far. We probably will see those temps in the NPAC near AK cool, but all seasonal models so try to keep ridging nearby. That's not to say it will stay, but a good sign is not seeing a modeled blackhole over AK. I feel decent about this winter so far, but it's very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 An extremely boring shift at work has led me to look at youtube videos of the big Feb and Mar snowstorms around here. I definitely have a sickness....I'm ill. I pass a good deal of time at work doing similar things...shhhhh don't tell anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 I pass a good deal of time at work doing similar things...shhhhh don't tell anyone. Any job openings at either of your places? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 I pass a good deal of time at work doing similar things...shhhhh don't tell anyone. Lol last winter in the prelude to the feb blizzard and everything thereafter I would stop after every delivery and check what the latest model buzz was, snap pics of QPF maps and send them to friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Still too early for me to get any kind of a feel on this winter. ENSO is unlikely to be a big factor this year. The QBO is tough to figure out sometimes because you have different levels for it and it behaves a bit differently depending on ENSO state. That said, I'm not that scared of a positive QBO. Our last two positive QBO winters were 2010-2011 and 2008-2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 There are plenty more caution flags apparent this year than we've had. All this chucking weendogs is a bit alarming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 There are plenty more caution flags apparent this year than we've had. All this chucking weendogs is a bit alarming What caution flags are there? This doesn't seem overly different than any other year...just that with the lack of an ENSO signal, its a bit harder to peg the longwave hemispheric pattern for winter, but even in stronger ENSO years, we don't really have any clue about our snowfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 If we can hang on to that NPAC another 4-6 weeks we're in remarkable shape. Kevin is in the reverse psychology made ala his pooh poohing 5 days out of one of the great blizzards of modern times. Should I be right, he claims reverse psychology. Should I bust, he claims told ya so. So Kevin, what's your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 If we can hang on to that NPAC another 4-6 weeks we're in remarkable shape. Kevin is in the reverse psychology made ala his pooh poohing 5 days out of one of the great blizzards of modern times. Should I be right, he claims reverse psychology. Should I bust, he claims told ya so. So Kevin, what's your call? That was epic...he trashed the Euro for like 3 days straight citing the December bust, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 That was epic...he trashed the Euro for like 3 days straight citing the December bust, lol. It really is a win-win for a snow lover to play it conservative though...that way the busts don't hurt . Reverse psych or being able to claim you were right. Plus I'd be hesitant too after his winter last season...there's almost no where to go but down in that area of CT after jackpotting last winter. Maybe climo catches up and he watches Pike north get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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