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The early speculation on winter 2013-14

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Weatheradvance.com winter projection.

I'm only posting this because it has the interior much above normal snowfall :weenie:

Can't take anything too seriously that spells below as "bellow." And what is below normal snow in Florida?

But I do hope their idea of coastal runners giving big interior snows that we haven't seen in a few winters is real...that BGM/SYR-ALB-BTV axis is due.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

PF any map that has BELLOW average ........

:lol: I know.

It was just a discussion piece...but we are due for some interior favoring nor'easter tracks like spring 2007 or some of those storms like Xmas 2002, Jan 2003, Dec 2003, Mar 2001, etc

We did have a good run with those interior jackpots (in the early 2000s, but haven't had that storm track set up really since 2007....while the past few winters have had more benchmark type tracks. Early 2000s was awesome in ALB when I was graduating high school....just deform pivot zones over eastern/central NY in several storms.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I have an uneasy feeling about this winter. Very uneasy

I don't think you can do much better relative to normal and relative to the rest of the region as you did last year. It will be hard to top that.

But I think if you set your expectations low enough (like I try to do each year, lol) then you will be happy with this winter.

Personally I'm not feeling a dead ratter and I'm usually pretty pessimistic to start each winter.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I don't think you can do much better relative to normal and relative to the rest of the region as you did last year. It will be hard to top that.

But I think if you set your expectations low enough (like I try to do each year, lol) then you will be happy with this winter.

Personally I'm not feeling a dead ratter and I'm usually pretty pessimistic to start each winter.

 

This is probably the kiss of death, but I think we'll be ok this winter...(at least near normal anyways) in this area. I mean things can change, but I don't see any glaring flags as of now.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

...I do hope their idea of coastal runners giving big interior snows that we haven't seen in a few winters is real...that BGM/SYR-ALB-BTV axis is due.

 

Thanks for that encouraging map PF.

Our last 2 winters have been huge disappointments.

Hopefully we catch up this year.

 

I can’t word it that strongly for our area, since last season’s snowfall wasn’t that low, but ’11-‘12 and ’12-’13 were the first back to back winters with below average snowfall here since I started keeping records.  It’s a small data set, and that’s bound to happen eventually of course, but more telling are the data in the upper right corner of the table below – those snowpack and maximum snow depth numbers are pretty atrocious relative to average.  Having those numbers back to back is pretty notable, and really kept ’12-’13 from approaching a semblance of “average”, so a rebound to something more typical would be nice.

 

Waterburywxsummarytable.jpg

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Posted

I asked the guy...what about -30F. He said you'd still be able to maintain AOA 60 in the house. Considering it hasn't happened in modern history I'm confident my house will be warm.

Is it both AC and heat or just heat?

Both. Now using the ac part. I think the technology hassle big leaps over the past 5-10 years. We'll see.

Big winter on the way!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I can’t word it that strongly for our area, since last season’s snowfall wasn’t that low, but ’11-‘12 and ’12-’13 were the first back to back winters with below average snowfall here since I started keeping records. It’s a small data set, and that’s bound to happen eventually of course, but more telling are the data in the upper right corner of the table below – those snowpack and maximum snow depth numbers are pretty atrocious relative to average. Having those numbers back to back is pretty notable, and really kept ’12-’13 from approaching a semblance of “average”, so a rebound to something more typical would be nice.

Waterburywxsummarytable.jpg

I guess the snow depth days don't lie, but I thought last winter was pretty average on the whole, though maybe 1-2 feet below normal in the valleys.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Weatheradvance.com winter projection.

I'm only posting this because it has the interior much above normal snowfall :weenie:

Can't take anything too seriously that spells below as "bellow." And what is below normal snow in Florida?

But I do hope their idea of coastal runners giving big interior snows that we haven't seen in a few winters is real...that BGM/SYR-ALB-BTV axis is due.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Out of curiousity--how do you go below (or bellow) the average for snow in FL and the gulf coast region??

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

 

The snow depth days doesn't look right.

Seems a bit low for last winter, but comparing his and my SDD records seems to show more differences than similarities.

........Waterbury...New Sharon (15-winter avg is 1,594)

07-08......2,518.....3,835

08-09......1,877.....2,489

09-10......1,040.....1,126

10-11......2,277.....1,740

11-12........688.......742

12-13........729.....1,311

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Lets hope for a couple whopper upslope storms... we didn't really get a good one (18-36" type event) last year. 

 

This was February 2012 which was the last major upslope event with 36" falling in 36 hours at the mountain and 18-20" in town. 

 

God I miss snow, lol.

 

incredible2.gif

 

IMG_2427_edited-1.jpg

 

IMG_2414_edited-1.jpg

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

The snow depth days doesn't look right.

 

 

Seems a bit low for last winter, but comparing his and my SDD records seems to show more differences than similarities.

........Waterbury...New Sharon (15-winter avg is 1,594)

07-08......2,518.....3,835

08-09......1,877.....2,489

09-10......1,040.....1,126

10-11......2,277.....1,740

11-12........688.......742

12-13........729.....1,311

 

Oh yeah, thanks for following up on that tamarack – I wasn’t sure if zuck’s comment was just rhetorical, so I didn’t know if I was going to respond or not.  Excel processes all the data, and each season I just enter the new numbers into the template and save it as a new file, so I’d be surprised if there was a change/error in the formula (it’s just a simple sum anyway).  The low number for snow depth days (SDD) this past season wasn’t surprising to me, having been out there documenting the snowpack every day, but just to be sure, I checked the formula and everything is kosher.  I think a look at my snowpack plot from this past season, with the mean snowpack depth shown in the green shading, is quite helpful in terms of convincing oneself that the 729 SDD is real.  If one just visually takes the area under this past season’s curve and compares it to the area of that mean in green shading, roughly half the average snowpack is certainly believable:

 

12-13snowpack.jpg

 

I’m not sure if zuck was surprised by the disparity between this season’s snowfall (~90% of average) and the SDD (~50% of average) in my data table?  In any event, I think that more than total snowfall, one of the better correlations in the table might be between maximum snow depth and SDD.

 

The maximum snow depth is much more related to the calculation of SDD than snowfall is – for example, each day the snowpack is sitting at 19 inches (last season’s max depth) instead a more typical ~30 inches, it’s a substantial hit to the SDD.  I’ve added my data table below again for reference, but one can see that the big SDD seasons (i.e. big “snowpack” seasons) have those bigger “maximum snow depth” numbers.

 

Waterburywxsummarytable.jpg

 

The higher one goes in elevation, or the more protected from episodes of above freezing temperatures one is, the more total snowfall will correlate with snowpack, but at the low elevation of our monitoring site, that relationship breaks down at times.  On a somewhat related note, we just didn’t get the usual number/magnitude of upslope events last season on the west slope of the Greens with the way storms were skirting off to the southeast, and I think that was part of what made it a somewhat sub-par winter season for our area.  I know that Powderfreak’s impression of the season was one of something closer to average, and I’d say that was the case in the Stowe area, but with ~90% of average snowfall and only ~50% of average snowpack at our site, and Bolton Valley up above us at just 78.5% of average snowfall, the feel was definitely below average.  For me, the 729 SDD we saw plays a big part in that assessment.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

I had slightly above avg snowfall last winter (90" vs avg 87") but just over 80% of avg SDDs. It was an "OK" year for snowfall but pretty lame for snowpack. At my foothills location, "good snowpack" begins when it reaches 20" - anything less, at least in Feb and most of March, is disappointing. Last winter I just touched 20", for two days, and never made it in 11-12. My avg for peak depth is 28", median is 26". (Two years reaching 48" and one 49" kicks up the avg.)

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Latest ECMWF forecast is for ridging into NW Canada and AK and again in the polar regions including Greenland. Temps as forecasted look near avg, but it's usually a better idea to look at the height anomalies since srfc temps can be of higher variability.

-AO -NAO from what I saw, happy happy happy
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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

-AO -NAO from what I saw, happy happy happy

 

Yeah an extremely cursory method of comparing current SSTAs with reasonably similar years (2010, 2004, 1996), averaging and rolling forward into December yields a -AO, -NAO as well, despite some fairly substantial differences between the years.  Not exactly ready to celebrate, but I suppose it's better than if it were the opposite.

 

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