ORH_wxman Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Take this with a grain of salt, but at least the CFSv2 and Euro seasonal models have ridging over the AK area this winter. CFS further east and euro further west near the Aleutians, but it beats seeing a vortex of death there. It may change, but I don't see any real scary yellow flags just yet. I see some signals for cold this year...doesn't necessarily mean snowy, but weak ENSO and +PDO is often quite cold for us..as mentioned earlier, a good chance for some arctic outbreaks. I'm not convinced we see a +PDO yet, but that water is getting awfully warm in the GOA. If the PDO goes negative and we get a +NAO, then we're probably in hell like '90-'91...but I'm confident that NAO era won't return just yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I see some signals for cold this year...doesn't necessarily mean snowy, but weak ENSO and +PDO is often quite cold for us..as mentioned earlier, a good chance for some arctic outbreaks. I'm not convinced we see a +PDO yet, but that water is getting awfully warm in the GOA. If the PDO goes negative and we get a +NAO, then we're probably in hell like '90-'91...but I'm confident that NAO era won't return just yet . Well lets hope the signs continue. After this past month, Fall can't some soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I see some signals for cold this year...doesn't necessarily mean snowy, but weak ENSO and +PDO is often quite cold for us..as mentioned earlier, a good chance for some arctic outbreaks. I'm not convinced we see a +PDO yet, but that water is getting awfully warm in the GOA. If the PDO goes negative and we get a +NAO, then we're probably in hell like '90-'91...but I'm confident that NAO era won't return just yet . Sounds promising, though the boldface is certainly true. However, I'd take another oxymoronic winter like 02-03, when Farmington ran -5.5 for a 10-week period from early Jan to mid-March. Easily my coldest of 15 winters, but only 12th of 15 for snow, 20" below avg. OTOH, it kept 1"+ snow for 146 days, tops for my place, 4 days more than mega-snow 07-08. We were below avg for temps eight straight months, from Oct 02 thru May 03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 I'm as confident of a big winter as I've ever been. Brutal cold with snow. If I can avoid turning my oil burner on and use the ductless working for ac now, it's a huge $$ win and I think that's probable. I'll then dump the tank and the burner next summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 I'm as confident of a big winter as I've ever been. Brutal cold with snow. If I can avoid turning my oil burner on and use the ductless working for ac now, it's a huge $$ win and I think that's probable. I'll then dump the tank and the burner next summer. hows the ductless work, throw me a link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 hows the ductless work, throw me a link This is the best I could find. We went with them after our neighbors glowing reviews both in winter and summer. http://www.daikinac.com/content/residential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 Steve it works like what you see in hotel rooms. Hot in winter, cold in summer. Air inverter. This is standard in Japan and increasingly in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Pretty much a heat exchanger, I have a similar setup in my outdoor electronics cabinets for work. I wonder how much electricity it uses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Steve it works like what you see in hotel rooms. Hot in winter, cold in summer. Air inverter. This is standard in Japan and increasingly in Europe. Thanks for the link Jerry, you will be my Guinea pig this winter. Let me know how well it handles cold and if the rooms feel warm to the floor and also energy savings. I am interested, next year I will decide . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Pretty much a heat exchanger, I have a similar setup in my outdoor electronics cabinets for work. I wonder how much electricity it uses? Jerrys link showed substantial savings versus gas ,oil,propane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 Pretty much a heat exchanger, I have a similar setup in my outdoor electronics cabinets for work. I wonder how much electricity it uses? Jerrys link showed substantial savings versus gas ,oil,propane. I'm told it uses less electricity vs gas, oil. Also, no burner to maintain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Jerrys link showed substantial savings versus gas ,oil,propane. No local contractors to me for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 Jerrys link showed substantial savings versus gas ,oil,propane. No local contractors to me for this? I'll find out. We used the same guy my neighbor did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Jerry--how're your squirrels doing? Since Dave mentioned he has had few of them, I've noticed that we don't have a single one. I've never paid them much heed since they really don't spend much time here, but it does seem to be a dearth of them. No squirrels is akin to losing a weather satellite for forecasting the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 I see some signals for cold this year...doesn't necessarily mean snowy, but weak ENSO and +PDO is often quite cold for us..as mentioned earlier, a good chance for some arctic outbreaks. I'm not convinced we see a +PDO yet, but that water is getting awfully warm in the GOA. If the PDO goes negative and we get a +NAO, then we're probably in hell like '90-'91...but I'm confident that NAO era won't return just yet . I've been getting a 2002-'03 vibe regarding this season......save for the Nino, but with regard to the Pacific and sensible weather impact. Obviously the Pacific would be watered down because that season was nuts, but I think that we see a lot of cold and above avg. snow. Prob. won't be as good for the mid atl. as that season was, either, but should be s ome similarities across the boards. I nailed last winter, so....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 We are def. predisposed to a neg NAO in this regime, as well as an unfavorable Pacific; however that does not mean that we can't have interludes of the unfavored with respect to any one index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 We are def. predisposed to a neg NAO in this regime, as well as an unfavorable Pacific; however that does not mean that we can't have interludes of the unfavored with respect to any one index. The QBO also is very westerly right now. Hopefully that starts to switch during winter, but that's a wild card. We've had a -NAO before with a westerly QBO, but just noting what the QBO is doing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Thanks for the link Jerry, you will be my Guinea pig this winter. Let me know how well it handles cold and if the rooms feel warm to the floor and also energy savings. I am interested, next year I will decide . I don't know if it's the same thing but I lived in a condo for a few years with an electric forced hot air heat exchanger and I remember it had problems with really cold mornings. The outside unit would ice up and put out steam or something. I thought it was going to blow-up! It's a little different than a mini-split but the heat exchanger is the same idea I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 Thanks for the link Jerry, you will be my Guinea pig this winter. Let me know how well it handles cold and if the rooms feel warm to the floor and also energy savings. I am interested, next year I will decide . I don't know if it's the same thing but I lived in a condo for a few years with an electric forced hot air heat exchanger and I remember it had problems with really cold mornings. The outside unit would ice up and put out steam or something. I thought it was going to blow-up! It's a little different than a mini-split but the heat exchanger is the same idea I think. My neighbor said if anything it's too hot and you have to set the thermostat lower. This unit guarantees 75 indoors with outdoor as cold as -13F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 My neighbor said if anything it's too hot and you have to set the thermostat lower. This unit guarantees 75 indoors with outdoor as cold as -13F. Hopefully you get a day that challenges the working limits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 Hopefully you get a day that challenges the working limits I asked the guy...what about -30F. He said you'd still be able to maintain AOA 60 in the house. Considering it hasn't happened in modern history I'm confident my house will be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 I asked the guy...what about -30F. He said you'd still be able to maintain AOA 60 in the house. Considering it hasn't happened in modern history I'm confident my house will be warm. I was looking at some data for winters past and ran across this 1933/34 Bos Dec ave temps of 26.9 Jan 29.5 and Feb 17.5 with 62 inches and that was with a basically snowless .8 Jan. what a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Its gon snow and be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Its gon snow and be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 There was virtually no snow in Jan 1934 in any of the SNE climo sites yet temps ave was 29 or so. Feb made up for the winter with region wide max/min averages 7-8 degrees colder than any month ever recorded. 4.45 inches of precip fell. Amazing winter. Can you imagine coming off a cold Dec with 16 inches of snow to a completely dry cold Jan with less than an inch? Baffling then an absolute winter pounding with 30-40 inches of snow in Feb with wind and cold to the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 I could survive with a neutral to slight +NAO, Just don't need an extreme negative one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 There was virtually no snow in Jan 1934 in any of the SNE climo sites yet temps ave was 29 or so. Feb made up for the winter with region wide max/min averages 7-8 degrees colder than any month ever recorded. 4.45 inches of precip fell. Amazing winter. Can you imagine coming off a cold Dec with 16 inches of snow to a completely dry cold Jan with less than an inch? Baffling then an absolute winter pounding with 30-40 inches of snow in Feb with wind and cold to the max Reminds me of 66-67 in NNJ (though we weren't nearly as cold as 2/34.) I recorded just over 100" that season, but only 2" in January. Dec, Feb, Mar each had a bit over 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 I could survive with a neutral to slight +NAO, Just don't need an extreme negative one lol we are on the same page...I'll take my chances with anything but a wildly suppressed pattern. Even cutters usually have upslope storms on the backside or front end thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 lol we are on the same page...I'll take my chances with anything but a wildly suppressed pattern. Even cutters usually have upslope storms on the backside or front end thumps. A 2010 redux no thank you, We don't need a NAO index in the -3 or more range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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