N. OF PIKE Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Oh thats right , meh we all had a pretty crappy 11-12 Cept pete think he had 88-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 You are thinking of '11-'12. I got smoked in '10-'11. Dec 26 2010 was basically a bullseye over my condo. I remember the Boston area getting nailed with that. From what I found Boston got 18.2". It pushed back my GRE exam a week which gave me more time to study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 That storm had sick n flow into the city for a lp location so close to cape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 I remember the Boston area getting nailed with that. From what I found Boston got 18.2". It pushed back my GRE exam a week which gave me more time to study. Yeah a good 18-20" or so over the region. Low level frontogenesis including the coastal front really helped out because we were practically dryslotted aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 That storm had sick n flow into the city for a lp location so close to cape! Ageostrophic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Ya ageo flow , but i just wonder if that was one of the closest lp tracks to coast where bos lock'd in that drain flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Yeah a good 18-20" or so over the region. Low level frontogenesis including the coastal front really helped out because we were practically dryslotted aloft. Yeah I remember Tip and others melting down in that one as western SNE got smoked in the deform band, while coastal areas got smoked from low level stuff....and inbetween was like a 6-10" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Ya ageo flow , but i just wonder if that was one of the closest lp tracks to coast where bos lock'd in that drain flow Yeah doesn't get closer than that. Combo of high pressure placement and rapid deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Yeah I remember Tip and others melting down in that one as western SNE got smoked in the deform band, while coastal areas got smoked from low level stuff....and inbetween was like a 6-10" storm. No, the deform band was even west of that into Columbia county NY and the lower Hudson Valley. Western SNE didn't do much (if any) better than the rest of the region...it was a strange storm in how far west the deform pushed, but the circulation was huge in it...it was not as compact as a storm like 1/12/11 or 2/8/13. Maybe extreme western Berkshire county got a bit more. I forgot what Mitch said he had in that one. ...FRANKLIN COUNTY... HEATH 8.0 339 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER CHARLEMONT 7.0 1100 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER WHATELY 4.5 132 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER...HAMPDEN COUNTY... BLANDFORD 9.5 812 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO WESTFIELD 6.8 200 PM 12/27 MEDIA SOUTHWICK 6.8 847 AM 12/28 EAST LONGMEADOW 6.5 830 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO CHICOPEE 5.3 811 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO WEST SPRINGFIELD 5.0 829 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO AMHERST 3.0 839 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO AGAWAM 2.8 756 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO SPRINGFIELD 2.8 737 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY... PLAINFIELD 12.5 235 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER CHESTERFIELD 7.5 727 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO WORTHINGTON 6.0 1045 PM 12/26 SPOTTER WESTHAMPTON 6.0 1100 AM 12/27 AMHERST 5.5 1210 PM 12/27 GENERAL PUBLIC GRANBY 5.0 1115 AM 12/27 EMERGENCY MANAGER WARE 4.1 828 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 No, the deform band was even west of that into Columbia county NY and the lower Hudson Valley. Western SNE didn't do much (if any) better than the rest of the region...it was a strange storm in how far west the deform pushed, but the circulation was huge in it...it was not as compact as a storm like 1/12/11 or 2/8/13. Maybe extreme western Berkshire county got a bit more. I forgot what Mitch said he had in that one. Yeah we got dry-slotted for sure in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Not really on topic but I was just going through the December NOWdata for DXR and I noticed the 1940's hold a staggering amount of record lows (13), ten of which occurred from 1942 to 1944. Must have had a lot of Ninas in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 No, the deform band was even west of that into Columbia county NY and the lower Hudson Valley. Western SNE didn't do much (if any) better than the rest of the region...it was a strange storm in how far west the deform pushed, but the circulation was huge in it...it was not as compact as a storm like 1/12/11 or 2/8/13. Maybe extreme western Berkshire county got a bit more. I forgot what Mitch said he had in that one. ...FRANKLIN COUNTY... HEATH 8.0 339 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER CHARLEMONT 7.0 1100 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER WHATELY 4.5 132 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER...HAMPDEN COUNTY... BLANDFORD 9.5 812 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO WESTFIELD 6.8 200 PM 12/27 MEDIA SOUTHWICK 6.8 847 AM 12/28 EAST LONGMEADOW 6.5 830 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO CHICOPEE 5.3 811 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO WEST SPRINGFIELD 5.0 829 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO AMHERST 3.0 839 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO AGAWAM 2.8 756 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO SPRINGFIELD 2.8 737 PM 12/26 HAM RADIO...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY... PLAINFIELD 12.5 235 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER CHESTERFIELD 7.5 727 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO WORTHINGTON 6.0 1045 PM 12/26 SPOTTER WESTHAMPTON 6.0 1100 AM 12/27 AMHERST 5.5 1210 PM 12/27 GENERAL PUBLIC GRANBY 5.0 1115 AM 12/27 EMERGENCY MANAGER WARE 4.1 828 PM 12/27 HAM RADIO Wow, I didn't know that was so bad out there... 2-4" amounts in the CT River Valley. That's brutal as weren't the models showing like 1" QPF back that way? Didn't that storm smoke SW CT though? But anyway, big bust for that one but the funny thing was like 3-4 days prior the models had it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Wow, I didn't know that was so bad out there... 2-4" amounts in the CT River Valley. That's brutal as weren't the models showing like 1" QPF back that way? Didn't that storm smoke SW CT though? But anyway, big bust for that one but the funny thing was like 3-4 days prior the models had it out to sea. I assume SW CT did well....I live near there in Westchester (though I now have my own place in the Bronx) and had 13".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Wow, I didn't know that was so bad out there... 2-4" amounts in the CT River Valley. That's brutal as weren't the models showing like 1" QPF back that way? Didn't that storm smoke SW CT though? But anyway, big bust for that one but the funny thing was like 3-4 days prior the models had it out to sea. They didn't do quite that bad...note that the lowest amounts are timestamped on the evening of the 26th (one of my pet peeves...leaving old data in the PNS)...but it was definitely pretty crappy in spots with 4-7" amounts. The models did have a pretty noticeable shadow in CT River Valley, but none of them predicted it to be as bad as it was...and there was plenty of other area dryslotted too that wasn't related to any shadowing effect. The funny part is that for anyone who got like only 6" in that...if you offered that to them on the morning of Christmas Eve, they would have taken it and ran, lol. I considered myself fortunate to "escape" with 12" in that storm. Being right on the eastern edge of the ORH spine I think helped...managed to get a bit of orgraphics underneath the 600-700mb dryslot from those howling NE winds. BOS metro cashed in beautifully on the CF...Scooter def couldn't complain about getting screwed in that one. Pretty amazing storm actually. It sucked for those who ended up with 6-7" of windblasted white sand...but the meteorology of the storm was pretty amazing starting with the epic model bust. The winds were pretty intense too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 I was at a friends for that storm in bridgewater mass. Absolutely disgusting as they went to rain after near midnite but back to some snow later. On ride home to framingham you could see cf never got west of norton and back in framingham there was like 10 inches give or take a bunch lol of wind swept powder! Ppl should have been thankful for anything considering epic model and hydro pred center bust. You couldnt pay me to move back to se mass for an entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Maybe if the summer is any indication, we might get a pretty nasty winter. Summer of 1995 was pretty hot and look what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Maybe if the summer is any indication, we might get a pretty nasty winter. Summer of 1995 was pretty hot and look what happened. I haven't found any correlation...summer of 1988 was brutal too and we got an awful winter. Same with 1999. On the flip side, we had cold summers in 2000 and 2004 and both of the winters after were great. Then of course we had cold summers in 2001 and 1985 but the following winters sucked...2009 sort of screwed us too after a cold summer though it was epic for the Mid-Atlantic. 1993, 2002, and 2010 were scorching summers with great winters afterward too. So no real correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Wow, I didn't know that was so bad out there... 2-4" amounts in the CT River Valley. That's brutal as weren't the models showing like 1" QPF back that way? Didn't that storm smoke SW CT though? But anyway, big bust for that one but the funny thing was like 3-4 days prior the models had it out to sea. We did pretty well here, 17-18 inches give or take... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 They didn't do quite that bad...note that the lowest amounts are timestamped on the evening of the 26th (one of my pet peeves...leaving old data in the PNS)...but it was definitely pretty crappy in spots with 4-7" amounts. The models did have a pretty noticeable shadow in CT River Valley, but none of them predicted it to be as bad as it was...and there was plenty of other area dryslotted too that wasn't related to any shadowing effect. The funny part is that for anyone who got like only 6" in that...if you offered that to them on the morning of Christmas Eve, they would have taken it and ran, lol. I considered myself fortunate to "escape" with 12" in that storm. Being right on the eastern edge of the ORH spine I think helped...managed to get a bit of orgraphics underneath the 600-700mb dryslot from those howling NE winds. BOS metro cashed in beautifully on the CF...Scooter def couldn't complain about getting screwed in that one. Pretty amazing storm actually. It sucked for those who ended up with 6-7" of windblasted white sand...but the meteorology of the storm was pretty amazing starting with the epic model bust. The winds were pretty intense too. That bold statement is so true if you read some of the threads leading up to that storm. I remember reading those in the past year, and the whole emotional rollarcoaster is pretty funny. Folks absolutely losing it when the models took it away before Xmas, then going nuts for the Xmas miracle model runs that bring back big amounts...then losing it again during the actual storm with the persistent dry slot. That storm was fascinating from a model watching stand point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 That bold statement is so true if you read some of the threads leading up to that storm. I remember reading those in the past year, and the whole emotional rollarcoaster is pretty funny. Folks absolutely losing it when the models took it away before Xmas, then going nuts for the Xmas miracle model runs that bring back big amounts...then losing it again during the actual storm with the persistent dry slot. That storm was fascinating from a model watching stand point. I find the funny part about that storm is how it kind of overshadowed the pretty large model bust in the 1/27/11 storm. That storm was forecasted in the final 36 hours to almost whiff SNE...just giving us a 2-4/3-5" storm except warning amounts on the Cape. Then it roared back NW all day on the 26th starting with the RUC model. Strange winter that was for short term model busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I find the funny part about that storm is how it kind of overshadowed the pretty large model bust in the 1/27/11 storm. That storm was forecasted in the final 36 hours to almost whiff SNE...just giving us a 2-4/3-5" storm except warning amounts on the Cape. Then it roared back NW all day on the 26th starting with the RUC model. Strange winter that was for short term model busts. But we had so much snow by that point...no one thought anything of it...I remember people saying to me (since the snow was over by 6a), why was school cancelled for just a couple inches? lol(We really had almost a foot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Anyway, back to the winter of 2013/2014, any thoughts about the bath-water North Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Anyway, back to the winter of 2013/2014, any thoughts about the bath-water North Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I find the funny part about that storm is how it kind of overshadowed the pretty large model bust in the 1/27/11 storm. That storm was forecasted in the final 36 hours to almost whiff SNE...just giving us a 2-4/3-5" storm except warning amounts on the Cape. Then it roared back NW all day on the 26th starting with the RUC model. Strange winter that was for short term model busts. and it dumped a bonus 3-5 here in the early hours of 1/27 that was not forecast at all. There was a lull, then the real storm came that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Anyway, back to the winter of 2013/2014, any thoughts about the bath-water North Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 You can almost stick a fork in El Nino I think...but if by some miracle we get a +PDO and neutral, we might see some brutal arctic outbreaks that have generally been absent since 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The subsurface is cold again so whatever wave causing the warmer water is gone and colder -PDO waters SE of Hawaii taking over. The NPAC is interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The subsurface is cold again so whatever wave causing the warmer water is gone and colder -PDO waters SE of Hawaii taking over. The NPAC is interesting though. I think neutral is almost a lock..weak La Nina isn't off the table though. I think El Nino is done. Pretty amazing how bad it got shredded. I'm interested in the N PAC...if we somehow keep that temp profile, we could see some massive arctic outbreaks. They've all gone over to Asia in recent years with the Barents blocking, but a healthy +PDO might turn the tables somewhat. We got some major cold in the 2002-2005 +PDO regime and we basically haven't seen it since...just some ticklers in Jan 2009 and Jan 2011. Late January this past year too, but that was weak sauce with low snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I think neutral is almost a lock..weak La Nina isn't off the table though. I think El Nino is done. Pretty amazing how bad it got shredded. I'm interested in the N PAC...if we somehow keep that temp profile, we could see some massive arctic outbreaks. They've all gone over to Asia in recent years with the Barents blocking, but a healthy +PDO might turn the tables somewhat. We got some major cold in the 2002-2005 +PDO regime and we basically haven't seen it since...just some ticklers in Jan 2009 and Jan 2011. Late January this past year too, but that was weak sauce with low snow cover. Yeah looks that way. Amazing how stable the NPAC has been over the last couple of years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Take this with a grain of salt, but at least the CFSv2 and Euro seasonal models have ridging over the AK area this winter. CFS further east and euro further west near the Aleutians, but it beats seeing a vortex of death there. It may change, but I don't see any real scary yellow flags just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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