The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[tamarack]

1962-63 was very cold from the second week in December to March 1st...It was also one of Europe's coldest winters...The Giants and Packers played in the championship game at the end of the month in single digit temperatures...Not to mention gale winds and a blizzard in Maine...NYC had at least five cold waves with temps 10 degrees or lower ... something like that hasn't happened in 20 years...

 

That game day was "warming" up for 12/31, which recorded Central Park's strongest December winds, with temps 13/4 (and leafless oaks ripped out of semi-frozen ground in NNJ.)  Jerry Kramer was 3-of-5 kicking field goals, hitting from 30 yards in and mssing from a bit farther out.

 

Large storms were hard to come by in NYC metro 1962-65 (though the city got 11.5" from the Jan 1964 storm, prob the one wethafella recalls) because large precip events were uncommon.  1962 was a top-10 driest year, 1963 was a wet November away from being #1, 1964 broke the record and 1965 obliterated it.

[uncle W]

That game day was "warming" up for 12/31, which recorded Central Park's strongest December winds, with temps 13/4 (and leafless oaks ripped out of semi-frozen ground in NNJ.)  Jerry Kramer was 3-of-5 kicking field goals, hitting from 30 yards in and mssing from a bit farther out.

 

Large storms were hard to come by in NYC metro 1962-65 (though the city got 11.5" from the Jan 1964 storm, prob the one wethafella recalls) because large precip events were uncommon.  1962 was a top-10 driest year, 1963 was a wet November away from being #1, 1964 broke the record and 1965 obliterated it.

the January 12-13th 1964 storm was a good as it gets...NYC recorded 12.5" with a 13" snow depth the next morning...I still feel that storm was measured after it stopped...It was one of many times we had snow with temperatures below 15 during the 1960's...January 65 had a mini blizzard and surprise 6-8" snowfall...1963-65 are in the top five driest on record for NYC...1970 comes in sixth making four of the six driest years on record came in an eight year period...

driest years

year.......total precip."

1965......26.09"

1964......32.99"

1910......33.72"

1935......33.85"

1963......34.28"

1970......35.29"

1885......35.37"

1895......35.37"

1954......35.58"

1892......35.60"

[weathafella]

Some friends and I took the bus into the city and tried to go to that game...couldn't get in so we opted to go to the rangers featuring Doug Harvey and Gump Worsely against the Leafs featuring stars up and down the lineup. I think the Leafs won 4-1. Moving to #1 on the charts was walk right in by the rooftop singers.

[uncle W]

Some friends and I took the bus into the city and tried to go to that game...couldn't get in so we opted to go to the rangers featuring Doug Harvey and Gump Worsely against the Leafs featuring stars up and down the lineup. I think the Leafs won 4-1. Moving to #1 on the charts was walk right in by the rooftop singers.

 

Some friends and I took the bus into the city and tried to go to that game...couldn't get in so we opted to go to the rangers featuring Doug Harvey and Gump Worsely against the Leafs featuring stars up and down the lineup. I think the Leafs won 4-1. Moving to #1 on the charts was walk right in by the rooftop singers.

Walk right in was the pick hit of the week...I couldn't find the ranger game for that date...

http://www.musicradio77.com/Surveys/1962/surveydec2562.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NYR/1963.html

[weathafella]

Walk right in was the pick hit of the week...I couldn't find the ranger game for that date...

http://www.musicradio77.com/Surveys/1962/surveydec2562.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NYR/1963.html

Funny hiw you mingle memories. But it seems so clear. I do remember the big Newfoundland vortex and thinking it will be cold but it may be tough to get good snow.

[uncle W]

Funny hiw you mingle memories. But it seems so clear. I do remember the big Newfoundland vortex and thinking it will be cold but it may be tough to get good snow.

I was at the first Jet game at Shea Stadium in 1964 when they beat the Broncos...I remembered the score as 41-6 for a long time until I checked it on line and it was 30-6...The Jets had Wahoo McDaniel at line backer who became a famous wrestler and Dick Wood at quarterback...49 years ago...that's scary...

[tamarack]

the January 12-13th 1964 storm was a good as it gets...NYC recorded 12.5" with a 13" snow depth the next morning...I still feel that storm was measured after it stopped...It was one of many times we had snow with temperatures below 15 during the 1960's...January 65 had a mini blizzard and surprise 6-8" snowfall...

 

That was a phenomenon I'd hardly ever seen before then - maybe the Feb 1958 storm qualifies, but other than that, snow fell with temps within a few degrees of freezing, or "it was too cold to snow."  Then came 3/60 (teens), 12/60 (low teens), 1/61 (high singles and teens), 1/64 (teens), 1/65 (teens, but smaller storm, esp in BWI where I was at college), finally 2/67 (most of our 15" fell at 5-8F, and the snow just wouldn't pack under the tires of my father's heavy Pontiac.)  Might add the St. Patty's Day mega-clipper in 1967, 6" in 6 hr as temps fell from 13 to 8 with winds gusting into the 30s, outrageous temps for that late in the season.

[CoastalWx]

San Ap is low, but sunspot number rose. We'll have to keep an eye on this since we don't want this to put a 2011 and help strengthen the vortex.

 

[weatherwiz]

Here is a winter outlook made by GeoEnvironmental Atmosphere, the organization I have started working with last month.  Myself, and several others all contributed thoughts and such.  I believe though to read the background behind it you have to download the PDF attached.

 

http://www.geoea.org/2013/11/04/2013-winter-outlook/

[sebastiaan1973]

I wonder why do you think the SAI of october 2013 will lead to a neutral AO in the winter?

Here is a winter outlook made by GeoEnvironmental Atmosphere, the organization I have started working with last month.  Myself, and several others all contributed thoughts and such.  I believe though to read the background behind it you have to download the PDF attached.

 

http://www.geoea.org/2013/11/04/2013-winter-outlook/

 

[weatherwiz]

I wonder why do you think the SAI of october 2013 will lead to a neutral AO in the winter?

 

I actually did not write that portion of the outlook and I have very little knowledge of the SAI

[It's Always Sunny]

I wonder why do you think the SAI of october 2013 will lead to a neutral AO in the winter?

I think it's because the snow advancement over Eurasia was about average for this October when compared to years past. That would make sense considering a +SAI correlates with a -N/AO and a -SAI index correlates with a +N/AO.

[Damage In Tolland]

Man Donny S is just torching winter and basically cancelling it. He;s had good calls and bad ones the last few years. Hopefully this is one of the bad ones, but it is somewhat worrisome

[CoastalWx]

Man Donny S is just torching winter and basically cancelling it. He;s had good calls and bad ones the last few years. Hopefully this is one of the bad ones, but it is somewhat worrisome

He's rolling over analog years. They are pretty nasty for the whole part but not all were abysmal.

[Damage In Tolland]

He's rolling over analog years. They are pretty nasty for the whole part but not all were abysmal.

It looks like it could be bad NYC south but decent north of there if his annys are correct

[Damage In Tolland]

Using analogs though to formulate a winter forecast never works very well

[CoastalWx]

It looks like it could be bad NYC south but decent north of there if his annys are correct

We are likely going to have a +AO winter it seems. That can work with a ridge in the Aleutians or near AK. His post is interesting although you can have a +AO and a not so cold arctic depending on the H5 pattern. It doesn't work that way...IOW a stronger AO means a colder arctic. It's not linear. This is why I hate those index values and rather look at H5. There really is one thing you need to worry about, it's the AK vortex. That's are death, not necessarily the AO. If that shows up, forget it.

[weathafella]

We are likely going to have a +AO winter it seems. That can work with a ridge in the Aleutians or near AK. His post is interesting although you can have a +AO and a not so cold arctic depending on the H5 pattern. It doesn't work that way...IOW a stronger AO means a colder arctic. It's not linear. This is why I hate those index values and rather look at H5. There really is one thing you need to worry about, it's the AK vortex. That's are death, not necessarily the AO. If that shows up, forget it.

That's why this year is encouraging. When we've had it, it tends to in and out. EPO seems to better want to form. Of course the speculation can be wrong but ssta in the GOAK in September is meaningful to me for this reason.

[sebastiaan1973]

I think it's because the snow advancement over Eurasia was about average for this October when compared to years past. That would make sense considering a +SAI correlates with a -N/AO and a -SAI index correlates with a +N/AO.

In the start of october there was a big area of snowcover, in the end of october we came close to average snowcover. So, the SAI can't be that good or even neutral.

[KEITH L.I]

Using analogs though to formulate a winter forecast never works very well

Weather is not human.It doesn't have a memory.Every winter is different

[It's Always Sunny]

Using analogs though to formulate a winter forecast never works very well

Yes and no. I think it provides a foundation to work with but you're right, you never know how it will actually pan out. That's why I take seasonal forecasts as a grain of salt and filter much of the banter and speculation that occurs on this board regarding it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Latest CFS is now colder for Dec. that thing changes almost daily

[It's Always Sunny]

Latest CFS is now colder for Dec. that thing changes almost daily

Reminds me of the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 graphics too, especially for precip.

[donsutherland1]

A few quick things regarding my early thoughts:

 

1. The rolled-forward partial analogs are used largely to observe possible trends e.g., are things looking colder/warmer based on those cases.

2. ENSO and teleconnections help shape my overall thoughts. I usually look at those factors 1-2 weeks before the start of a month. I did post what things look like a little earlier with respect to December, but had noted that neither the CFSv2 nor those cases have demonstrated much skill from this far out.

3. The sample of seasonal forecasts I've seen over the years suggests that some skill may exist in the area of temperature anomalies, but neither precipitation nor snowfall forecasts have consistently been skillful. A better idea about regional snowfall does become evident during December.

 

Having said that, my early thoughts are that the region's temperature anomalies will probably be colder than 2011-12 and warmer than 2012-13, but some potential for warmth closer to 2011-12 exists. The farther north on goes, the closer anomalies in New England could be closer to normal. The state of the Pacific could be key to what happens in what very likely looks to be an AO+ winter (some periods of blocking are possible, but much less than what occurred last winter).

 

My biggest worry about snowfall: Ongoing dry conditions might persist and warmth could predominate leading to fewer opportunities for snow. A big storm or two could still have a big impact on seasonal accumulations.

[CoastalWx]

A few quick things regarding my early thoughts:

 

1. The rolled-forward partial analogs are used largely to observe possible trends e.g., are things looking colder/warmer based on those cases.

2. ENSO and teleconnections help shape my overall thoughts. I usually look at those factors 1-2 weeks before the start of a month. I did post what things look like a little earlier with respect to December, but had noted that neither the CFSv2 nor those cases have demonstrated much skill from this far out.

3. The sample of seasonal forecasts I've seen over the years suggests that some skill may exist in the area of temperature anomalies, but neither precipitation nor snowfall forecasts have consistently been skillful. A better idea about regional snowfall does become evident during December.

 

Having said that, my early thoughts are that the region's temperature anomalies will probably be colder than 2011-12 and warmer than 2012-13, but some potential for warmth closer to 2011-12 exists. The farther north on goes, the closer anomalies in New England could be closer to normal. The state of the Pacific could be key to what happens in what very likely looks to be an AO+ winter (some periods of blocking are possible, but much less than what occurred last winter).

 

My biggest worry about snowfall: Ongoing dry conditions might persist and warmth could predominate leading to fewer opportunities for snow. A big storm or two could still have a big impact on seasonal accumulations.

 

Thanks for your input man. I agree with the AO, but like you...I don't know how the PAC is shaping up. Early indications leading into early December seem to have a semi-favorable look here in New England, but I couldn't say how long it will last. We'll need to see how the tropical pacific helps.

[weatherwiz]

A few quick things regarding my early thoughts:

 

1. The rolled-forward partial analogs are used largely to observe possible trends e.g., are things looking colder/warmer based on those cases.

2. ENSO and teleconnections help shape my overall thoughts. I usually look at those factors 1-2 weeks before the start of a month. I did post what things look like a little earlier with respect to December, but had noted that neither the CFSv2 nor those cases have demonstrated much skill from this far out.

3. The sample of seasonal forecasts I've seen over the years suggests that some skill may exist in the area of temperature anomalies, but neither precipitation nor snowfall forecasts have consistently been skillful. A better idea about regional snowfall does become evident during December.

 

Having said that, my early thoughts are that the region's temperature anomalies will probably be colder than 2011-12 and warmer than 2012-13, but some potential for warmth closer to 2011-12 exists. The farther north on goes, the closer anomalies in New England could be closer to normal. The state of the Pacific could be key to what happens in what very likely looks to be an AO+ winter (some periods of blocking are possible, but much less than what occurred last winter).

 

My biggest worry about snowfall: Ongoing dry conditions might persist and warmth could predominate leading to fewer opportunities for snow. A big storm or two could still have a big impact on seasonal accumulations.

 

Great stuff, Don!

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for your input man. I agree with the AO, but like you...I don't know how the PAC is shaping up. Early indications leading into early December seem to have a semi-favorable look here in New England, but I couldn't say how long it will last. We'll need to see how the tropical pacific helps.

I agree. I hope that all new members understand the limits of trying to forecast in the extended range. And, of course, I hope no matter the forecasts, the southern New England area has a snowy winter.  

[CoastalWx]

I agree. I hope that all new members understand the limits of trying to forecast in the extended range. And, of course, I hope no matter the forecasts, the southern New England area has a snowy winter.  

 

Same to you. Gotta get my little one seasoned...lol.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm encouraged by the breaking down of the AK vortex on the Euro ensembles in the long range. If that occurs, it would lead us into a decent pattern for December. Probably some type of gradient pattern, but we've seen that before in in recent Decembers. Still too early obviously to see just how the N PAC will shake out, but I'm at least not spooked by the AK vortex...very transient it appears.

[Typhoon Tip]

A few quick things regarding my early thoughts:

 

1. The rolled-forward partial analogs are used largely to observe possible trends e.g., are things looking colder/warmer based on those cases.

2. ENSO and teleconnections help shape my overall thoughts. I usually look at those factors 1-2 weeks before the start of a month. I did post what things look like a little earlier with respect to December, but had noted that neither the CFSv2 nor those cases have demonstrated much skill from this far out.

3. The sample of seasonal forecasts I've seen over the years suggests that some skill may exist in the area of temperature anomalies, but neither precipitation nor snowfall forecasts have consistently been skillful. A better idea about regional snowfall does become evident during December.

 

Having said that, my early thoughts are that the region's temperature anomalies will probably be colder than 2011-12 and warmer than 2012-13, but some potential for warmth closer to 2011-12 exists. The farther north on goes, the closer anomalies in New England could be closer to normal. The state of the Pacific could be key to what happens in what very likely looks to be an AO+ winter (some periods of blocking are possible, but much less than what occurred last winter).

 

My biggest worry about snowfall: Ongoing dry conditions might persist and warmth could predominate leading to fewer opportunities for snow. A big storm or two could still have a big impact on seasonal accumulations.

 

It may be my own ignorance claiming (  ) ...but I don't see how the Pac and AO are very correlated.   In fact, my own experience shows that that polarward field indices (less the EPO) are rather disconnected, and have oft' trumped seasonal outlooks that were more dependent on Pac, particularly, the ENSO's impact on the flow.  Even NCEP has in recent autumns begun to capitulate to the stochastic nature of these northern indices in modulating temperature and precipitation departures, in their seasonal outlooks.  

 

Also, I am having a problem seeing why this is an +AO winter.  I am getting a lot of this and I don't see why that is.  As Cohen (and others, such as myself) have noted for years that positive AO tendencies in autumns, tend to reverse in DJF.  Early studies related that to early cryosphere snow/ice production kinematics, but I suspect there are other factors, such as ozone in the stratosphere and solar fluxes.  

 

Anyway, the multi-decadal oscillation would offer a linear suggestion (trend) that negative is preferred.  The QBO is the only reason I can see that supports a positive AO, and that may very well prove to be the dominating factor, okay.  But, there are a lot of years where the positive QBO phase broke down.  2010-2011 is suspect, but there are others.  Papers, also about that, show that the positive phase of the QBO is the weaker correlation vs the negative.  

 

I still think this could be a good winter for the NP-GL-NE and yes, the MA.  But, this is admittedly based only what I have noticed is scale-able.