Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Steve, What's the link to the first image? I might have it in my bookmarks but probably buried. I like the second image better but heres the old school link first http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 I like the second image better but heres the old school link first http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Ryans Station liking 1963 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/091/mwr-091-04-0209.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Ryans Station liking 1963 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/091/mwr-091-04-0209.pdf Interesting. I'll keep this in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 1962-1963 was a pretty cold winter season. However, at least in NYC, it wasn't too great in the snowfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Ryans Station liking 1963 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/091/mwr-091-04-0209.pdf The more i look into things, 1962-1963 is actually a pretty decent match. It matches quite well with how ENSO has fared since spring, that winter alow followed an ENSO neutral winter, that winter occurred during the +AMO phase and -PDO phase, and also occurred during a low period of sun spot activity. 1981-1982 was another year I was looking at but doesn't really match all that well with how some things are (that occurred during -AMO/+PDO period and higher sun spot activity. 1981-1982 also occurred during an easterly QBO as opposed to what we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 1962-1963 was a pretty cold winter season. However, at least in NYC, it wasn't too great in the snowfall department. I remember a major storm in January unless a winter early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 I remember a major storm in January unless a winter early. there was a storm near the end of January with 4-6" that ended as a mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 1962-63 was very cold from the second week in December to March 1st...It was also one of Europe's coldest winters...The Giants and Packers played in the championship game at the end of the month in single digit temperatures...Not to mention gale winds and a blizzard in Maine...NYC had at least five cold waves with temps 10 degrees or lower ... something like that hasn't happened in 20 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 My two analogs are 1962-1963 and 2008-2009 which I'm working with but I'm leaning more towards 2008-2009 as given how the AMO might end up more neutral or perhaps slightly negative this winter which may make way for more of a positive NAO overall which is what occurred in 2008-2009. Also stratosphere this fall has been more like that of 2008-2009 than 1962-1963. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I'd make out with you if we had '08-'09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Most hemispheric snow cover since 04/05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I'd make out with you if we had '08-'09. I know very little about long-range but from what I have tried working with, it seems like a decent analog. Matches well with how ENSO has gone this year, it occurred during a +AMO phase, but the AMO actually went slightly negative that winter, and that may happen this winter...there is a cold pocket of SST's south of Greenland that has been strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The temps of 1962-1963 and precipitation amounts of 2008-2009 will make your eyes bloodshot in amazement. What I'm talking about is the possibility of Super Clippers. The typical way of delivering several cold snaps of this magnitude are Clippers and Miller B type events. Although, if this winter has traits of an El Nino, then Clippers will be common. Also, remember that the magnitude of cold air could ensure that snow is certain, at least for I-80 going north. If we don't hang on to our current dry regime, then there's a possibility for a few very potent Clippers. That's just my thoughts on the analogues that I observed. If I'm wrong, then you guys can correct me because even though I've been observing weather patterns for over 10 years, I've always learned new things from more knowledgeable people, mainly from this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 My two analogs are 1962-1963 and 2008-2009 which I'm working with but I'm leaning more towards 2008-2009 as given how the AMO might end up more neutral or perhaps slightly negative this winter which may make way for more of a positive NAO overall which is what occurred in 2008-2009. Also stratosphere this fall has been more like that of 2008-2009 than 1962-1963. both had snowfall on the ground Christmas morning from a storm almost a week before...other analogs like 1959 and 1961 had deeper snow on the ground Christmas morning...every neutral negative December had a negative AO on average including 2001... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 both had snowfall on the ground Christmas morning from a storm almost a week before...other analogs like 1959 and 1961 had deeper snow on the ground Christmas morning...every neutral negative December had a negative AO on average including 2001... Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Interesting! year..........AO.....NAO.....PNA 1959......-0.043...+0.44...+0.66 1960......-0.343...+0.06...+1.46 1961......-1.668....-1.48....-1.24 1962......-0.711....-1.32....-0.08 1966......-1.401...+0.72...+0.09 1967......-0.347....-0.45....-0.82 1978......-0.980....-1.57....-0.72 1980......-0.057...+0.78....-0.27 1981......-1.216....-0.02....-0.12 1985......-1.948...+0.22...+1.39 1989......-0.644....-1.15...+0.87 1996......-1.721....-1.41....-1.23 2001......-1.322....-0.83...+0.56 2012......-0.111...+0.17....-1.01 only 1989 and 2001 had all three in our favor and 2001 was the warmest December on record while 1989 was one of the coldest on record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 year..........AO.....NAO.....PNA 1959......-0.043...+0.44...+0.66 1960......-0.343...+0.06...+1.46 1961......-1.668....-1.48....-1.24 1962......-0.711....-1.32....-0.08 1966......-1.401...+0.72...+0.09 1967......-0.347....-0.45....-0.82 1978......-0.980....-1.57....-0.72 1980......-0.057...+0.78....-0.27 1981......-1.216....-0.02....-0.12 1985......-1.948...+0.22...+1.39 1989......-0.644....-1.15...+0.87 1996......-1.721....-1.41....-1.23 2001......-1.322....-0.83...+0.56 2012......-0.111...+0.17....-1.01 only 1989 and 2001 had all three in our favor and 2001 was the warmest December on record while 1989 was one of the coldest on record... December 2001 is such an interesting case...you wouldn't expect such warmth in the east given the NAO/AO states but it occurred. I wonder if the stratosphere played a major role in that? Looking at 50mb temp anomalies, the stratosphere wias cooler than average across the east while the warmth in the stratosphere was out in the west, where the coldest sfc anomalies were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Any thoughts on the October SAI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 December 2001 is such an interesting case...you wouldn't expect such warmth in the east given the NAO/AO states but it occurred. I wonder if the stratosphere played a major role in that? Looking at 50mb temp anomalies, the stratosphere wias cooler than average across the east while the warmth in the stratosphere was out in the west, where the coldest sfc anomalies were In 2001, the Arctic source region was so extraordinarily warm that the period of blocking sustained the month's unseasonable warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 In 2001, the Arctic source region was so extraordinarily warm that the period of blocking sustained the month's unseasonable warmth. The EPO was strongly positive in December 2001 despite a -AO/-NAO...therefore it favored a very mild pattern over North America while the blocking favored much colder conditions over Asia and Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The EPO was strongly positive in December 2001 despite a -AO/-NAO...therefore it favored a very mild pattern over North America while the blocking favored much colder conditions over Asia and Europe. That probably was one of the reasons the Arctic was so warm. Below are the December 2001 EPO anomalies: 2001 12 01 37.46 2001 12 02 18.89 2001 12 03 22.00 2001 12 04 -17.94 2001 12 05 30.72 2001 12 06 80.45 2001 12 07 76.61 2001 12 08 61.62 2001 12 09 35.66 2001 12 10 3.14 2001 12 11 3.21 2001 12 12 57.47 2001 12 13 87.98 2001 12 14 100.91 2001 12 15 131.63 2001 12 16 169.51 2001 12 17 192.80 2001 12 18 181.87 2001 12 19 149.29 2001 12 20 154.54 2001 12 21 172.01 2001 12 22 146.28 2001 12 23 134.93 2001 12 24 149.14 2001 12 25 76.76 2001 12 26 12.37 2001 12 27 -13.04 2001 12 28 -34.67 2001 12 29 -106.38 2001 12 30 -162.36 2001 12 31 -172.05 ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The EPO was strongly positive in December 2001 despite a -AO/-NAO...therefore it favored a very mild pattern over North America while the blocking favored much colder conditions over Asia and Europe. Actually, for a good portion of the SE US like Atlanta, the snowfall during the winter of 2001-02 was well above average due to a 4-6" snowfall in early January. The winter of 2001-2 is also infamous for the extreme cold bias of the GFS (then known as the MRF/AVN). This model was bringing down record cold airmasses on many runs and its cold runs hardly let up through the winter! I still have some of those runs saved. This was largely a result of a major model modification (cooling) that was implemented on 5/15/01 mainly to reduce the number of false tropical cyclones. That goal was reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 That winter was the famous "vodka cold" which was always coming but never did. There was a good snow event over the interior northeast during January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Actually, for a good portion of the SE US like Atlanta, the snowfall during the winter of 2001-02 was well above average due to a 4-6" snowfall in early January. The winter of 2001-2 is also infamous for the extreme cold bias of the GFS (then known as the MRF/AVN). This model was bringing down record cold airmasses on many runs and its cold runs hardly let up through the winter! I still have some of those runs saved. This was largely a result of a major model modification (cooling) that was implemented on 5/15/01 mainly to reduce the number of false tropical cyclones. That goal was reached. I recall a huge snowstorm for NC in January 2002...not sure if that was the same system that brought snow to Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 That winter was the famous "vodka cold" which was always coming but never did. There was a good snow event over the interior northeast during January. We had a pretty good snow event in SNE on December 8, 2001. Biggest of the season for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I recall a huge snowstorm for NC in January 2002...not sure if that was the same system that brought snow to Atlanta. It is the same one. It fell Jan. 2-3. It singlehandedly resulted in winter snow totals that were well above normal in Atlanta, Raleigh, Columbia, and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 That winter was the famous "vodka cold" which was always coming but never did. There was a good snow event over the interior northeast during January. Yup, which made us all a bit smart 2 years ago when it didnt come either (despite predictions to the contrary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 In 2001, the Arctic source region was so extraordinarily warm that the period of blocking sustained the month's unseasonable warmth. The EPO was strongly positive in December 2001 despite a -AO/-NAO...therefore it favored a very mild pattern over North America while the blocking favored much colder conditions over Asia and Europe. Thanks for the response! I actually didn't even think to look at the EPO for that month. EPO certain;y can have major implications on our pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The NPAC was abysmal in Dec 2001, and this is why I hold that the EPO signal is generally most important for cold in the CONUS. Absolute vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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