easternsnowman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Its pretty much not good for anyone north of NYC either...at least in the U.S. Its the worse the further south you go from the border. Our most recent +AO winters are 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 2006-2007, 2001-2002, 1999-2000, 1998-1999, 1996-1997, 1994-1995, 1992-1993, 1991-1992, 1990-1991. I'm going to guess that for the northeast US, all of those winters stunk for NYC-southward...and I know only a few were OK in New England. 1992-1993 was probably the closest to being decent further south...interior Mid-Atlantic did pretty good, but the coast still didn't. That was the one epic winter for New England...'07-'08 was epic for CNE/NNE...pretty solid for SNE north of CT/RI. 1996-1997 was ok. I was looking at the data for norhteast pa and the southern tier of NY state, while not great in comparison to NYC south relative to average snowfall it was a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 probably the most +AO winter there was is 1988-89...it was a bad snow year...last year the AO was very negative in March...Only nine other years had a lower daily AO reading...March was a good snow month in the NE...The ten years with the lowest daily AO values are... dates...................weather at the time...-7.433...01/15/1977.....5" of snow 1/14-15...-2 degrees 1/17...-6.365...03/05/1970.....Cold month with late month snowstorm...-6.226...01/19/1985.....-2 on 1/21...-5.821...12/21/2009.....11" snow 12/19-20...-5.291...02/05/1978.....18" snow 2/6-7...-5.282...02/13/1969.....15" snow 2/9-10...-5.172...12/14/2010.....20" 12/26-27...-5.130...01/28/1966..... 7" 1/30...8 degrees 1/28...-5.010...01/21/1963..... 4 degrees 1/21...4" snow 1/26...-4.854...02/25/2001..... 6" snow 2/22...-4.802...03/19/2013..... 3" snow 3/18...Some of the coldest snowiest winters are on this list...I'll be watching the ao closely again this year...we can only hope we see an AO as low as these years...these winters were either some of the coldest or snowiest in recent years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 probably the most +AO winter there was is 1988-89...it was a bad snow year...last year the AO was very negative in March...Only nine other years had a lower daily AO reading...March was a good snow month in the NE...The ten years with the lowest daily AO values are... dates...................weather at the time... -7.433...01/15/1977.....5" of snow 1/14-15...-2 degrees 1/17... -6.365...03/05/1970.....Cold month with late month snowstorm... -6.226...01/19/1985.....-2 on 1/21... -5.821...12/21/2009.....11" snow 12/19-20... -5.291...02/05/1978.....18" snow 2/6-7... -5.282...02/13/1969.....15" snow 2/9-10... -5.172...12/14/2010.....20" 12/26-27... -5.130...01/28/1966..... 7" 1/30...8 degrees 1/28... -5.010...01/21/1963..... 4 degrees 1/21...4" snow 1/26... -4.854...02/25/2001..... 6" snow 2/22... -4.802...03/19/2013..... 3" snow 3/18... Some of the coldest snowiest winters are on this list...I'll be watching the ao closely again this year...we can only hope we see an AO as low as these years...these winters were either some of the coldest or snowiest in recent years... down here in the MA, there are some great years as well as dogs on that list snow-wise sadly, there are so many things that can go wrong for the MA, it doesn't matter how "great" one or two indexes may be...we can find a way to fook it up on a consistent basis during the winter months would I like to see the AO-? sure, but it's far from a lock down here especially when you consider a few of those winters Will posted above that had very +AO actually gave BWI near or above normal snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Its pretty much not good for anyone north of NYC either...at least in the U.S. Its the worse the further south you go from the border. Our most recent +AO winters are 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 2006-2007, 2001-2002, 1999-2000, 1998-1999, 1996-1997, 1994-1995, 1992-1993, 1991-1992, 1990-1991. I'm going to guess that for the northeast US, all of those winters stunk for NYC-southward...and I know only a few were OK in New England. 1992-1993 was probably the closest to being decent further south...interior Mid-Atlantic did pretty good, but the coast still didn't. That was the one epic winter for New England...'07-'08 was epic for CNE/NNE...pretty solid for SNE north of CT/RI. 1996-1997 was ok. Half a loaf for 06-07, the most schizo winter I can remember - epic horror show thru mid-Jan, one of the best thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 The waves, while impressive, have nudged the "radiative-beginning" stages of a rapidly cooling vortex into the coldest part of the NH. The first disturbance came before the mid-level portion of the vortex even formed (quite unusal). In January that's fine and the same signal would mean a weakening NAM, but in October it will just allow parcels to radiatively cool much faster than if the vortex was just in climo-position (it is going to continue to rapidly cool this time of year and parcels are sitting/moving over Siberia more than normal). The MMC-tropical forcing will also become unfavorable soon and help force alignment from mesosphere down once we move into early November, aided by the QBO. The possibility of a wave 2 response is there but it still is October and it will succumb to the same fate as the wave 1 response (if not even weaker). If it wasn't for the "near El Nino" last year (led to more ozone availability), subtropical u=0 line and bouts of strengthening MMC this year, I would be calling for a wall-to-wall warm/positive AO winter. These features will help to put a lid on that potential, most likely. See above of course but yes the Wave 1 - Aleutian Low - response has been amazing. It has prompted the CPC analogs to list some rather impressive winters too, cold-wise. The problem is that you better have a good reason to suspect this feature will stick around. In most of the CPC-analog years listed, they certainly did have a good reason. Why would a typhoon-aided, convective/oceanic KW-aided, El Niño-like period in October (with residual W PAC walker uplift, intensifying the MMC further) stick around into the winter? +AO winter for majority ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 +AO winter for majority ...? The SAI is probably going to predict a near neutral to slightly positive AO unless we pick it up some near the end of the month. We're slowing dow right now which is not good for a +AO winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 probably the most +AO winter there was is 1988-89...it was a bad snow year...last year the AO was very negative in March...Only nine other years had a lower daily AO reading...March was a good snow month in the NE...The ten years with the lowest daily AO values are... dates...................weather at the time... -7.433...01/15/1977.....5" of snow 1/14-15...-2 degrees 1/17... -6.365...03/05/1970.....Cold month with late month snowstorm... -6.226...01/19/1985.....-2 on 1/21... -5.821...12/21/2009.....11" snow 12/19-20... -5.291...02/05/1978.....18" snow 2/6-7... -5.282...02/13/1969.....15" snow 2/9-10... -5.265...12/18/2010.....20" 12/26-27... -5.130...01/28/1966..... 7" 1/30...8 degrees 1/28... -5.010...01/21/1963..... 4 degrees 1/21...4" snow 1/26... -4.854...02/25/2001..... 6" snow 2/22... -5.688...03/19/2013..... 3" snow 3/18... Some of the coldest snowiest winters are on this list...I'll be watching the ao closely again this year...we can only hope we see an AO as low as these years...these winters were either some of the coldest or snowiest in recent years... I doubled checked the numbers and last year the AO was -5.688 on 3/20/13...I don't know where I got the other number from unless it was revised?...I probably screwed up some where...Dec 2010 was off also...the AO is forecast to rise as high as +3.000 in a week or so...lets hope that doesn't happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 As long as a +AO doesn't completely include a black hole over AK it's not the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 The SAI is probably going to predict a near neutral to slightly positive AO unless we pick it up some near the end of the month. We're slowing dow right now which is not good for a +AO winter I would guess a AO from (-.5 to 1.5) i.e near neutral to slightly positive (maybe to 1.0 instead of 1.5) would make the AO much less a prime factor for the winter, for sne (esp pike N ) but that would be a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 As long as a +AO doesn't completely include a black hole over AK it's not the end of the world. Yes...if we avoid that, then I'm ok with a +AO...like '07-'08, '92-'93, '83-'84, '75-'76, '71-'72, '66-'67, and '56-'57. I'd obviously prefer a -AO as those are way better...we'll see how the final 10 days of October shake out with the pattern and SAI, but my guess is that it will not be going for a -AO if I had to guess now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 If you look at the current snow distribution it's quite a bit like 2002 except not nearly the coverage between 55-60N north of the Ukraine. But it looks like a major low pressure system will dig in over that region the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Yes...if we avoid that, then I'm ok with a +AO...like '07-'08, '92-'93, '83-'84, '75-'76, '71-'72, '66-'67, and '56-'57. I'd obviously prefer a -AO as those are way better...we'll see how the final 10 days of October shake out with the pattern and SAI, but my guess is that it will not be going for a -AO if I had to guess now.Definitely a bit of a difference between what someone range forecasters seem to be thinking vs some of the more skillful long range guidance. The guidance hasn't backed down either. I thought maybe we could see more of a backend -NAO this winter but then thought it might come in earlier with the SAi as of 10 days ago. Not asrobust of a signal now with the SAI. We'll see how it shakes out. My gut tells me we won't have a snowless winter in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Proposed thread title change. Current version: "The early speculation on winter 2013-14" Proposed change: "The speculation on early winter 2013-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Definitely a bit of a difference between what someone range forecasters seem to be thinking vs some of the more skillful long range guidance. The guidance hasn't backed down either. I thought maybe we could see more of a backend -NAO this winter but then thought it might come in earlier with the SAi as of 10 days ago. Not as robust of a signal now with the SAI. We'll see how it shakes out. My gut tells me we won't have a snowless winter in these parts. To clarify, I'm not so sure we go to a big +AO with low anomalies near AK for a prolonged period of time. Obviously we will at some point like we do every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 To clarify, I'm not so sure we go to a big +AO with low anomalies near AK for a prolonged period of time. Obviously we will at some point like we do every winter. This agrees with you, JB tweeted this out, CFS 2 and JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 The latest CFS v2 has above average temps for December and Below Average for January and Well Below Average for February for the Eastern 2/3rds of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 The latest CFS v2 has above average temps for December and Below Average for January and Well Below Average for February for the Eastern 2/3rds of the US. Sounds like an El Nino type progression, which seems strange, but a couple of the longer term models seem to be going that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 The latest CFS v2 has above average temps for December and Below Average for January and Well Below Average for February for the Eastern 2/3rds of the US.Weren't many of the 50's and 60's Ninas and cold-neutrals like that? Thinking 55-56 and 66-67 in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Weren't many of the 50's and 60's Ninas and cold-neutrals like that? Thinking 55-56 and 66-67 in particular. '55-'56 was a strong La Nina. '66-'67 was a neutral coming off a potent El Nino. Some of the early 1960s winters were cold neutrals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Most peculiar prog on the CFS as well. Monster +NAO but ridging over the NW territories and western Canada. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html Problem is that it's a dangerous rope to walk on. I just don't know if the Pacific will be as good as progged there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Most peculiar prog on the CFS as well. Monster +NAO but ridging over the NW territories and western Canada. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html Problem is that it's a dangerous rope to walk on. I just don't know if the Pacific will be as good as progged there. Looks like a gradient pattern the first half of winter on the CFS and we flip to the -NAO for the second half, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Looks like a gradient pattern the first half of winter on the CFS and we flip to the -NAO for the second half, FWIW.that seems to be the route we are heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Latest JAMSTEC run is much improved with ENSO, but still torches the East. September run had around 0 for region 3.4 through the winter. New run has us warm neutral, up to +0.4c or so for DJF. Looks like some blocking and a continued cold Europe, but a poor NPAC signal. The temp profile is much colder in the Western US on this latest run (congrats them) but still warm in the East. Interestingly though, if you look at the precip anomalies, there seems to be a baroclinic zone along the east coast w/ above normal precip for us now, and below normal just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=forums&module=post§ion=post&do=reply_post&f=20&t=41113&qpid=2445744 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 It seems absolutely ludicrous that , since the heavy snow cover began a week or two early (late Sept) instead of Oct. that this actually throws the SAI into something unfavorable for a -AO due to the slope thanks to a high snow cover in late sept. I mean i wonder how strong the correlation is in these circumstances, seems silly. What im saying is can u not run the numbers from sept x to oct 31 , (if if if late sept is very snowy) to get a alternate and imo more likely representation of what the original work was about and what would that show. Agreed. Ironically, the 2013 SAI is currently partially being hurt by there being so much snow near the end of Sep. and during the first few days of Oct. as that has caused the sloped line to start at almost 2 million sq. km. The other three years started at under 1/2 million sq. km. Had 2013 also started around 1/2 million sq. km, the 2013 current slope would have been much higher than it is and a good bit higher than 2007. Isn't it sort of counterintuitive that just starting the month with "too much" snow, via causing the SAI indicator to be lower than it otherwise would have been, will reduce the prospects for a good (-AO) winter? Does it make sense that above average late Sep. to very early Oct. snow hurts the SAI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 It seems absolutely ludicrous that , since the heavy snow cover began a week or two early (late Sept) instead of Oct. that this actually throws the SAI into something unfavorable for a -AO due to the slope thanks to a high snow cover in late sept. I mean i wonder how strong the correlation is in these circumstances, seems silly. What im saying is can u not run the numbers from sept x to oct 31 , (if if if late sept is very snowy) to get a alternate and imo more likely representation of what the original work was about and what would that show. ehhh you really have no basis to make to that statement. I would re-read that thread and specifically what HM said about October being a transition month I mean, I see the point you are making and I do believe over time, r values do decrease usually in LR when they are very high to start. But, if you are going to bash the connection, you better supply us with something more than this. Believe me, I'm all about the bigger players and do believe the snow cover is a middle component here in cause/effect; but, it is a little crazy to call this connection "weak." The time period is not really arbitrary. October sees a transition from monsoonal flow/trough across E Asia to Mongolian High and the development of a full polar vortex. It is truly a transition month and Cohen simply measured how fast/slow we are transitioning with this metric. There is nothing wrong with that... Why? If September into early October is characterized by a warm-season regime and the rest of October sees a transition and then a full placement into a cold-season regime, why would late September be as big of a deal? The rapid onset of "winter" mid-late October will more often than not be correctly measured or implied by the advancement of the sustainable snow cover in this period. Yes, I agree. October also sees a transition from summer to winter in the form of "standing waves" which are unique to the NH. They, along with the polar vortex, become established this month. A lot of various things that work together have been simplified for us by Cohen with the SAI. Is it perfect? Nope... Are there larger-scale factors at play? Yes... But in the end, that transition and full-scale beginning of the cold season that takes over mid to late October is definitely being picked up by the SAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Some years I'm looking at are 1985, 1992, and 2008. All were ENSO neutral winters and both seem to match up quite well with how the QBO is transpiring...not that the QBO is everything obviously but with the ENSO signal rather weak, it's going to be tough for the Pacific to be much of a driver. Def have to see how the NAO/AO/PNA pan out but I just don't really have any idea how to try and forecast those this far out or even would know how to attempt to do so...plus, not only figuring out the state but where the strongest anomalies set up probably play just as much as a role as the sign itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWX1226 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 A very interesting blog article on the potential for a cold and possible snowy period upcoming in early November. It seems that the recent tropical activity in the Northwest Pacific will alter the trough/ridge pattern across the Northern Hemisphere leading to more troughiness in the eastern U.S.--and to top it all off latent heat release has lead to an increase in Ozone, which will likely lead to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event! Much more can be found here: http://weatherworksinc.com/early-November-snow-threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2341/full Game on kids, lets get this party started The area that explains the most variance in autumn snow cover across Eurasia includes a region from northern Scandinavia into the West Siberian Plain (PC 1). Autumn snow cover across this region was strongly related to winter temperatures across the interior of North America during January and the eastern and southeastern United States during February. Temperatures were as much as 5 °C lower during January and February over portions of the interior of North America in years with more frequent autumn snow cover in the West Siberian Plain versus years with less frequent snow cover. More frequent autumn snow cover across the West Siberian Plain appears to be associated with a negative AO/NAO during the winter, which results in reduced temperatures across much of eastern North America. This mechanism has been explored in multiple studies, but until now there has been no suggestion of the importance of particular regions of Eurasian snow cover. The research presented here does not explicitly address the physical mechanism in which the thermal perturbation due to anomalous snow cover alters the atmospheric circulation and subsequent winter temperatures over North America. Instead, we draw on the extensive literature during the past decade that documents the relationship between Eurasian snow cover and North American temperatures as teleconnected through the AO. Future research comparing climate forecasts that use Eurasian snow cover extent as a whole to those that use individual regions of Eurasian snow cover is recommended. Most of the previous research has dealt with Eurasian snow cover as a whole, but the results from this study suggest that autumn snow cover from northern Scandinavia to the West Siberian Plain plays a much larger role on winter North American temperatures than snow cover over other regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Steve, What's the link to the first image? I might have it in my bookmarks but probably buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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