uncle W Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 if it's going to be a weak nino it better get started soon... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I listened to JB's Saturday talk on weatherbell...He said a warm Dry October is a bad sign...1947 and 1963 had warm dry Octobers and the winters that followed were great... 1947 especially - still NYC's top winter for SDD (though I don't have depth data for pre-1900.) And I've measured just under 1" precip since 9/14. However, I'd rather not repeat the dryness of those two Octobers (and autumns), as 1947 saw "the week Maine burned" - 200,000+ acres and 15 deaths, and 1963 saw the NJ Governor close the woods to al activity, even fishing, with numerous large fires burning down thru the duff layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Could that be the look of a "cold-phase" El Nino, such as 2009-10 and 1972-3? Well that would be a colder pattern for the northeast then 2009-2010 for sure because of the ridge anomalies further west and a wealer -NAO. I could be wrong, but part of me is still skeptical of that pattern. However, the model will not back down from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Well that would be a colder pattern for the northeast then 2009-2010 for sure because of the ridge anomalies further west and a wealer -NAO. I could be wrong, but part of me is still skeptical of that pattern. However, the model will not back down from that. The NAO is much more central based on the SIPS than some of the recent NAO winters we've had like 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 where it was more west based. That would definitely be a much colder look for us when combined with that N PAC pattern...but I also remain skeptical of the N PAC shown on the SIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Jerry has been on this. Good signs all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 i wonder if this will hurt the SIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 i wonder if this will hurt the SIA do you think it will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 i wonder if this will hurt the SIA Speculation only ... but now that we are 20 days + post the autumn equinox, the sun has set over the NP for it's bi-annual nocturn; I wonder if the acceleration of sea-ice build up and a slight on-going positive departure in land snow combined with no sun might off-set. Just a thought. But yeah, typically the +AO phase is the correlation for building SIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 do you think it will?hoping it does but i don't know enough about russian climatology to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Yeah I don't think it matters at this time of yearhttp://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/forecast/russia/Dzalinda-Siberia/Dzalinda-Siberia.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Active winter is my guess, jet stream likely to be strong and running northeast through the region, lots of different types of storms and rapid changes. Great Lakes, Midwest and inland Mid-Atlantic would perhaps do better for snow and cold in this pattern. But my speculation would be for plenty of variety in New England and a busy time on the forum no doubt. Chances would seem good in that scenario for at least one memorable snowfall or blizzard. I don't have much of a bias towards when this might occur so going with climatology, the early February new moon period looks best. I also think that northern New England could have a very heavy snow winter with the storm track closer to the coast than the height of land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Rogers forecast reminded me of winters that had major storms that tracked to far west to change snow to rain in NYC...We had three straight winters when the biggest noreaster tracked to close for all snow... 12/25-27/1969...6" of snow before turning to 1" of rain...1" of snow on the back side......2/19/1972 was pretty much like 12/69...March 3-4, 1971 was a near miss with snow at the start then heavy rain to 2" of snow on the back side...All three storms were huge north and west of NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Just curious but how well did the EURO SIPS do last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Just curious but how well did the EURO SIPS do last winter? Not too well for the first half of last winter. It kept insisting a below average temperature regime for much of December into the first half of January. For the second half of last winter, it did okay. It did figure out the below average temps, but struggled with the February Blizzard. That's all I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Not too well for the first half of last winter. It kept insisting a below average temperature regime for much of December into the first half of January. For the second half of last winter, it did okay. It did figure out the below average temps, but struggled with the February Blizzard. That's all I remember. The Euro SIPS is a seasonal forecasting tool run one time per month, so it has no daily forecasts. There is no prediction to compare it to for the February Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The Euro SIPS is a seasonal forecasting tool run one time per month, so it has no daily forecasts. There is no prediction to compare it to for the February Blizzard. Was it the Weeklies that had the February Blizzard? Sometimes I get confused between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Was it the Weeklies that had the February Blizzard? Sometimes I get confused between the two. Weeklies wouldn't show the Blizzard either. They forecast weekly anomalies. The Euro Operational picked out the Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Weeklies wouldn't show the Blizzard either. They forecast weekly anomalies. The Euro Operational picked out the Blizzard. Yes...and it was the first model to get it. It was one of those storms where the Euro latched on about 5 days out and never waivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I'll never forget that. Thought it was a euro fantasy bomb until 24 hrs later when the ensembles started to latch on and then eventually GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Rogers forecast reminded me of winters that had major storms that tracked to far west to change snow to rain in NYC...We had three straight winters when the biggest noreaster tracked to close for all snow... 12/25-27/1969...6" of snow before turning to 1" of rain...1" of snow on the back side......2/19/1972 was pretty much like 12/69...March 3-4, 1971 was a near miss with snow at the start then heavy rain to 2" of snow on the back side...All three storms were huge north and west of NYC... "West" was the key word for that 12/69 storm, especially for NNE. S/Cen Maine got 12-18" followed by a 3-7" deluge and flooding, NH got similar snowfall followed by IP/ZR, and VT got buried - almost 30" for BTV (tops there until the Jan 2010 freakydump), and reports of nearly twice that in the southern Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I'll never forget that. Thought it was a euro fantasy bomb until 24 hrs later when the ensembles started to latch on and then eventually GFS. With Euro's trough carving bias beyond D7, it's uniquely qualified -- might be natural to assume it to be the first model to dig an event out of the pattern out in la-la range. Problem, it tends to be wrong the other 9 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 With Euro's trough carving bias beyond D7, it's uniquely qualified -- might be natural to assume it to be the first model to dig an event out of the pattern out in la-la range. Problem, it tends to be wrong the other 9 out of 10 times. It didn't really have the storm until 5 days out though. This wasn't a D8 fantasy bomb. The Euro previously had tricked us around D5 though back on Dec 20-21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 It didn't really have the storm until 5 days out though. This wasn't a D8 fantasy bomb. The Euro previously had tricked us around D5 though back on Dec 20-21. O -- kay, yeah I read that like it was one of those eye-roller D9 deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Yes...and it was the first model to get it. It was one of those storms where the Euro latched on about 5 days out and never waivered. I think the biggest "fantasy" part of that storm was when models like the NAM started spitting out 4" QPF amounts. Once the Euro backed those up it was game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/?p=2440270 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Not really liking the ridging forecasted into Eurasia. I would imagine that would be detrimental to the SAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 18, 2013 Author Share Posted October 18, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/?p=2440270 The big question is now much. Positve AO is by no means the kiss of death particularly with a decent pacific. Eg the upcoming pattern has a big EPO and a positive AO it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 A positive AO is not good for anyone south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 A positive AO is not good for anyone south of NYC Its pretty much not good for anyone north of NYC either...at least in the U.S. Its the worse the further south you go from the border. Our most recent +AO winters are 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 2006-2007, 2001-2002, 1999-2000, 1998-1999, 1996-1997, 1994-1995, 1992-1993, 1991-1992, 1990-1991. I'm going to guess that for the northeast US, all of those winters stunk for NYC-southward...and I know only a few were OK in New England. 1992-1993 was probably the closest to being decent further south...interior Mid-Atlantic did pretty good, but the coast still didn't. That was the one epic winter for New England...'07-'08 was epic for CNE/NNE...pretty solid for SNE north of CT/RI. 1996-1997 was ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Not really liking the ridging forecasted into Eurasia. I would imagine that would be detrimental to the SAI. In particular, eastern Eurasia, which would be Siberia. But I'm not sure exactly if those positive heights have any effect on the SAI. The forecast for a city like Magadon, Russia...located in Siberia, is 20's with snow... http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/russia/magadan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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