toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The waters in the equatorial Pacific still have quite a cold pocket east of the dateline. Near and west of the dateline the waters have been warm. Not surprisingly easterly and westerly anomalies accompany cold and warm areas respectively. I suppose the good news is that warmer waters can at least help any MJO wave propagate east towards the dateline. The stat models still are the coldest of the ENSO models right now. If they were to be too cold and we get slight warming...I suppose the atmosphere will try to adjust to a changing regime even if the definition is still neutral per temps. A warming trend is more important than the actual SST value IMO. However, the problem is that we are just about out of time to see any pronounced benefit of ENSO warming...if there were to be any. So neutral it likely will be.So does this help promote a STJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The waters in the equatorial Pacific still have quite a cold pocket east of the dateline. Near and west of the dateline the waters have been warm. Not surprisingly easterly and westerly anomalies accompany cold and warm areas respectively. I suppose the good news is that warmer waters can at least help any MJO wave propagate east towards the dateline. The stat models still are the coldest of the ENSO models right now. If they were to be too cold and we get slight warming...I suppose the atmosphere will try to adjust to a changing regime even if the definition is still neutral per temps. A warming trend is more important than the actual SST value IMO. However, the problem is that we are just about out of time to see any pronounced benefit of ENSO warming...if there were to be any. So neutral it likely will be. I'd be shocked if we ended up with a Nino-ish winter pattern but stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I'd be shocked if we ended up with a Nino-ish winter pattern but stranger things have happened.DT says we are 100% in a weak niño winter this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I'd be shocked if we ended up with a Nino-ish winter pattern but stranger things have happened. well, I stare at that list of analog years and think, is the Eurasia snow cover and that list a fluke or will I be looking at this thread in late MAR after 30+" (> 150% of my normal) has fallen thinking "there it was, the writing was on the wall in early OCT and I chose not to believe it"....idk I think I'd prefer to believe it and if it doesn't happen, what's another let down when it comes to snow in the MA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I'd be shocked if we ended up with a Nino-ish winter pattern but stranger things have happened. Yeah I don't see it either, I suppose if we somehow see warming and the atmosphere tries to adjust in January or something like that...but seems like a steady-state neutral to warm neutral perhaps. But like I said...if we can keep waters near the dateline warmer it would at least allow for the MJO to propagate east as long as other variables allow for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 DT says we are 100% in a weak niño winter this year I don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 well, I stare at that list of analog years and think, is the Eurasia snow cover and that list a fluke or will I be looking at this thread in late MAR after 30+" (> 150% of my normal) has fallen thinking "there it was, the writing was on the wall in early OCT and I chose not to believe it"....idk I think I'd prefer to believe it and if it doesn't happen, what's another let down when it comes to snow in the MA! Well the analog list looks pretty Nino-ish right now, but just last week it was filled with years like 1999 and 1971...so it can change quickly. We'll see how everything evolves in the next 2 weeks. Perhaps there will be some staying power to that N PAC pattern, but I'm skeptical right now. Doesn't mean we can't have a decent winter...but that type of N PAC in winter is rare...like '76-'77, '02-'03, '60-'61 type stuff. All of those were in very different setups vs this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah I don't see it either, I suppose if we somehow see warming and the atmosphere tries to adjust in January or something like that...but seems like a steady-state neutral to warm neutral perhaps. But like I said...if we can keep waters near the dateline warmer it would at least allow for the MJO to propagate east as long as other variables allow for it. I'll take what I can get down here but if I was sitting where you are, I'd feel like a Boy Scout alone in a National Geographic warehouse right about now wrt the upcoming winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I should add on that this year is really tough to forecast...we're coming off a faux weak Nino last year that went almost La Nina in spring. Weird ENSO progression that doesn't really match other years. Given the currently weak ENSO on top of that, there's no real clear ENSO signal. SAI in Eurasia is going very well at the moment, so we can be optimistic on that front. PDO is still raging negative which will not promote any positive feedback on ridging in the GOA region...one reason to be skeptical of a monster N PAC pattern in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I don't see that. Just telling you what he posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I'll take what I can get down here but if I was sitting where you are, I'd feel like a Boy Scout alone in a National Geographic warehouse right about now wrt the upcoming winter Eh, you shouldn't be so down and the opposite applies here. If any SE ridge is weak and the EPO remains mostly negative with help from Greenland..you'll be ok. It's just too early to know right now. I know you guys were porked last year, but look at those RIC storms. What if that were another 100-150 miles north? You just don't know these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Eh, you shouldn't be so down and the opposite applies here. If any SE ridge is weak and the EPO remains mostly negative with help from Greenland..you'll be ok. It's just too early to know right now. I know you guys were porked last year, but look at those RIC storms. What if that were another 100-150 miles north? You just don't know these things. yeah, I'm fairly optimistic actually, certainly more than usual, but I'm usually too optimistic anyway lol it helps with sanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Just telling you what he posted Yeah I know...but I just don't see clues yet about any signs or adjustments to Nino. Maybe they occur over the next month..but even having a trimonthly of 0.6 JFM may be too late. Usually the adjustments start to follow or even precede the SSTs changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Check out OK Powdahs thread on the recurving super typhoon on the main board. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Check out OK Powdahs thread on the recurving super typhoon on the main board. Good stuff That helps. The pattern change actually starts from a cutoff ease of Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 That helps. The pattern change actually starts from a cutoff ease of Hawaii. Yeah the disturbance near Hawaii plays a nice role in anchoring the anticyclonic wavebreaking along the west coast, rather than it spilling over into the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Yeah the disturbance near Hawaii plays a nice role in anchoring the anticyclonic wavebreaking along the west coast, rather than it spilling over into the CONUS I saw you mention that in that post. But what a ridge developing with that system. Basically two ways to get cold and without the MJO help, that will have to suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 CFS looks awful now..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Wait a minute, how is the CFS 2m temps giving that look with the H7 pattern progged? Something isn't right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 CFS is playing with the weenies hearts and minds. Maybe some pattern where the surface doesn't reflect the upper level flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 CFS is playing with the weenies hearts and minds. Maybe some pattern where the surface doesn't reflect the upper level flow? I mean it's not very warm...but I wouldn't have guessed that temp distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 The Cfs daily report today has a normal December, a torch January/february, cool Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Check out OK Powdahs thread on the recurving super typhoon on the main board. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 A warmer January or Feb wouldn't hurt areas in New England upstate Pa or NY state as far as snow goes because the averages are cold for us, areas south of us would have to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I would think snowy winters in the Southeast US are generally almost all El Nino years, in the Mid-atlantic mostly El Nino years, and once to NYC's latitude a tendency toward El Nino. You really need the active STJ for locations south of PHL especially. Weak El Nino's often have many Miller B redevelopers which is partially why Long Island into SNE hit the jackpot in the 2003-2005 time frame.January 25, 2000 gave Raleigh 20" and even near-coastal Greenville, NC had about 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 You have been behind the eight ball a lot lately. Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 10/12/13 8:17 PM Newest visible image shows Typhoon Wipha expanding as eye appears. Extra-large. Could become very intense (Cat 5). pic.twitter.com/NSaP3SOJuj @RyanMaue: Typhoon #Wipha finally developing an eye. Expect Super Typhoon status shortly. http://t.co/t35t0eS2l3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 You have been behind the eight ball a lot lately. Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 10/12/13 8:17 PM Newest visible image shows Typhoon Wipha expanding as eye appears. Extra-large. Could become very intense (Cat 5). pic.twitter.com/NSaP3SOJuj @RyanMaue: Typhoon #Wipha finally developing an eye. Expect Super Typhoon status shortly. http://t.co/t35t0eS2l3 Well in his defense, it's not a super typhoon yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Well in his defense, it's not a super typhoon yet. Nobody face palms Ginxy and gets away with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Nobody face palms Ginxy and gets away with it Well in his defense, it's not a super typhoon yet. Nobody face palms Ginxy and gets away with it face palm worthy? Seriously? Come on all I did was point a link to SAMs thread. Size wise this is FORECASTED to be on par with Katrina IKE wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 You have been behind the eight ball a lot lately. Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 10/12/13 8:17 PM Newest visible image shows Typhoon Wipha expanding as eye appears. Extra-large. Could become very intense (Cat 5). pic.twitter.com/NSaP3SOJuj @RyanMaue: Typhoon #Wipha finally developing an eye. Expect Super Typhoon status shortly. http://t.co/t35t0eS2l3 You wish! ... you flat out miss-quoted him. That's your onus, not mine. You are so obsessed with recurving typhoon theory, and cold weather patterns, that you filter everything through an exaggeration lens. Then, you dig and dig on the internet to find any shred of data that might substantiate your exaggeration/miss-quote -- nice. That helps the veracity of forum! BTW, NCEP holds it at major status. It may yet attain Category 5 status, but the clock is ticking as it gains latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.