ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I see what you are saying however the models all agree on PNA ridging developing next week. The image you posted doesn't even have the PNA going positive That is because the ridging is further west than a classic +PNA...we end up with more of a neutral PNA and a -EPO. Late in the period the ensemble mean does go slightly positive on the PNA...you can see it on the 14 day forecast at the bottom of the graph Tip posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 So what's the significance of one recurving while two do not? Sice the West Pac got active about a month ago, TC track seems based on point of origin. Those forming 130E and westward don't recurve, or even close to it, 135E and eastward do, completely. Anything getting much above 25N makes the hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That is because the ridging is further west than a classic +PNA...we end up with more of a neutral PNA and a -EPO. Late in the period the ensemble mean does go slightly positive on the PNA...you can see it on the 14 day forecast at the bottom of the graph Tip posted. Interesting. I noticed this on the last GFS run. The Ridge was off the West Coast instead of in the West like you said. Seems to flatten the pattern out because of this also. Like Tip said still very early but learned something new about why the position of a ridge can be important to getting cold air here in the States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The day 11 ENS analogs read like a page out of Jerrys book, 2002, 1960, 1995, 1993,1957 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I see what you are saying however the models all agree on PNA ridging developing next week. The image you posted doesn't even have the PNA going positive No, ALL models do not... Every one of those curves in that image presents a model run. Just let it go... The PNA mean is not positive until the very distant extended edge in the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That is because the ridging is further west than a classic +PNA...we end up with more of a neutral PNA and a -EPO. Late in the period the ensemble mean does go slightly positive on the PNA...you can see it on the 14 day forecast at the bottom of the graph Tip posted. Did you see the 00z oper. GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 SAI on the Eurasian side looks like it will do well south of 60N...that is the side we care most about. Far eastern Siberia has less influence...at least according to the Cohen studies. It looks like a lot of eastern and central Canada will start building up snow pack for sure. Interesting.. I know the whole domain used in the study is called Eurasia, but I didnt recall reading that the western side is more important than the eastern side.. in that case it looks pretty good I guess for that 15th-25th time frame roughly. I still wonder if we hit a brick walla with advancement though at the end with the lwo hght anomalies being a little too closer to the pole for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The day 11 ENS analogs read like a page out of Jerrys book, 2002, 1960, 1995, 1993,1957 It will get quite cold in the final 10 days of the month if this verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 It will get quite cold in the final 10 days of the month if this verifies... It's awesome to see these -EPO clusters ...and encouraging for latter October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 My guess is the heart of the cold will hang west over the Plains and Lakes, but we should see pieces breaking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 My guess is the heart of the cold will hang west over the Plains and Lakes, but we should see pieces breaking off. Yeah without much NAO help and the shorter wavelengths this time of year, it def favors northern plains to Lakes and up in Canada...but that type of pattern could still give the interior an outside shot at some weenie flakes or even an event. Ways out there still though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah without much NAO help and the shorter wavelengths this time of year, it def favors northern plains to Lakes and up in Canada...but that type of pattern could still give the interior an outside shot at some weenie flakes or even an event. Ways out there still though. Oh yeah for sure. It only takes one good cold shot even if it's brief. But I have zero complains with the pattern progged. I think we'd all take the pattern if it were December on...even November for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Oh yeah for sure. It only takes one good cold shot even if it's brief. But I have zero complains with the pattern progged. I think we'd all take the pattern if it were December on...even November for that matter. Yeah that is a November 2002 type PAC...and Feb 2003. If we somehow got that type of PAC in the winter, it would be pretty epic. But I do not think the PAC will be that nice looking . But as as long as there are hhigher height anomalies in the EPO region, I don't mind a GOA low. We've dealt with a GOA low in a lot of recent winters that turned out very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah that is a November 2002 type PAC...and Feb 2003. If we somehow got that type of PAC in the winter, it would be pretty epic. But I do not think the PAC will be that nice looking . But as as long as there are hhigher height anomalies in the EPO region, I don't mind a GOA low. We've dealt with a GOA low in a lot of recent winters that turned out very good. So I'm assuming that the euro ensembles keep ridging right through D15 in the EPO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 So I'm assuming that the euro ensembles keep ridging right through D15 in the EPO region. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yep.Even the 12z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Even the 12z suite? Yessir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yessir.Troughing over the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Troughing over the lakes? Yeah, and over much of the eastern US. Must be music to your ears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Euro weeklies warm significantly week 4 as they retro the SE ridge, NAO goes positive and trough goes back to west. Hope they're wrong on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Euro weeklies warm significantly week 4 as they retro the SE ridge, NAO goes positive and trough goes back to west. Hope they're wrong on that Week 4 has been about as accurate as Jerry's squirrels. It's a weak SE ridge and temps near normal. Still ridging into nrn Greenland and borderline -EPO although it's more of a Bering sea ridge. Canada is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah, and over much of the eastern US. Must be music to your ears... Freaking out over troughing in late October is bad...even for weenie standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah, and over much of the eastern US. Must be music to your ears...Yes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 It will get quite cold in the final 10 days of the month if this verifies... strange to see so many NINOs (mod-strong at that) on that list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 strange to see so many NINOs (mod-strong at that) on that list The atmosphere is acting ninoish right now it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 strange to see so many NINOs (mod-strong at that) on that list Its a very Nino-ish N PAC pattern for October. Whether its fleeting or not, impossible to say yet, but I certainly would hedge against that type of PAC pattern in the winter months...but I hope I'm wrong as it would be a sweet pattern to have that type of western and N PAC ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Its a very Nino-ish N PAC pattern for October. Whether its fleeting or not, impossible to say yet, but I certainly would hedge against that type of PAC pattern in the winter months...but I hope I'm wrong as it would be a sweet pattern to have that type of western and N PAC ridging. yeah, a lot of Nino features including the snow cover over the Pole notice how 76 and 02 are on that list, #1 and #2 respectively for fall Eurasia snow cover and look what we have up there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 There is also a bit of a STJ currently as well, but that can disappear easily too. Just something I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 There is also a bit of a STJ currently as well, but that can disappear easily too. Just something I noticed.Ensembles also have that going for the next two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The waters in the equatorial Pacific still have quite a cold pocket east of the dateline. Near and west of the dateline the waters have been warm. Not surprisingly easterly and westerly anomalies accompany cold and warm areas respectively. I suppose the good news is that warmer waters can at least help any MJO wave propagate east towards the dateline. The stat models still are the coldest of the ENSO models right now. If they were to be too cold and we get slight warming...I suppose the atmosphere will try to adjust to a changing regime even if the definition is still neutral per temps. A warming trend is more important than the actual SST value IMO. However, the problem is that we are just about out of time to see any pronounced benefit of ENSO warming...if there were to be any. So neutral it likely will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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