It's Always Sunny Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 All winter outlooks generally look silly as they try to get too "cute" with the details. ...especially outlooks for public consumption. That said it's not that far off from what some have said on here with a SE ridge and trough in the center of the country...battleground in between. The one thing that's odd is they are calling for a torch for the first part of winter in the east and it seems a lot here think the icebox is coming early this winter. Yes and no. I just think the bottom map is way too intricate. I have no issue with the top map. As far as what the first half of this winter will be like, I really don't think anyone has a firm idea (no offense to those that take this seriously). I look at teleconnections a lot myself and hell I couldn't even put money down on what I think will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Payback for CT's relative jackpot last year? ORH-BOS snowing hard while it's IP in ALB and BDL... Well I'm not sure I deserve anything...5th snowiest winter on record here last year, lol. But yeah, in NE CT, it was probably slightly more anomalous on the plus side vs here. Prob like a top 3 winter there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 "Wet Episodes" lolz. Blizz tossed that outlook even before it came out to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That's another thing too....people look at the monthlies and see the SE ridge and a good portion automatically assume a torch. Idc who you are but you don't know when, how long, or the amplitude of it this far out. It's basically ripping and reading models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 It looks like a La Nina gradient winter. Something like 2007-2008/2008-2009 You won't here me complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That's another thing too....people look at the monthlies and see the SE ridge and a good portion automatically assume a torch. Idc who you are but you don't know when, how long, or the amplitude of it this far out. It's basically ripping and reading models. They may be looking at the models and perhaps Figuring climo with the atmospheric circulation still sort of in a Nina/- PDO look. That's why I thought it wasn't unreasonable although personally I'm not so sure the west will be cold and snowy. In the end it's just a forecast so have to start somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Lol inaccuweather, how did this work out for them last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 They may be looking at the models and perhaps Figuring climo with the atmospheric circulation still sort of in a Nina/- PDO look. That's why I thought it wasn't unreasonable although personally I'm not so sure the west will be cold and snowy. In the end it's just a forecast so have to start somewhere. Well it's not that I'm against their snow forecast, because it does render a La Nina/-PDO solution which tends to hold some weight (especially ENSO) but what I'm trying to say is that there are other players too that affect a seasonal forecast. EPO, NAO, PNA, AMO, snowfall in Siberia, just to name some more. That's basically the point I'm trying to get at. I know this is stuff you already know but I guess what I'm trying to say is that I personally tend to keep more of an open mind. I feel like some mets/hobbyists on here are more gung-ho on a specific solution (cold, warm, snowy, w/e it may be), but hey if they have reasoning behind it, I'd be the last one to bash it. I'm just speaking my mind on how I perceive it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Or maybe this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That's another thing too....people look at the monthlies and see the SE ridge and a good portion automatically assume a torch. Idc who you are but you don't know when, how long, or the amplitude of it this far out. It's basically ripping and reading models. I'm not a long range guy, the models are really all I know. I mean, we make models for a reason too...the accuracy is waaaay down there but it's just another tool to consider. We don't know what will happen, but when we assume +PNA or -NAO or SE ridge, we are often basing it off models. Not too many people can extrapolate with any skill like the models can (as little as that skill is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Ever since JB left, like him or not, they have bombed. 07_08 would be cool but meh on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Or maybe this one Lol, epic. I'll never forget that outlook, or that winter. That was a La Nina winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I am changing track this year, going to go 6 week increments instead of season, see how that works out. Found a formula that works for me last Jan, going to play it out this year. That is if the Govt ever opens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 It looks like a La Nina gradient winter. Something like 2007-2008/2008-2009 Those two winters were one of the top snowiest across a large portion of my area with 07-08 being the snowiest on record. The persistant +NAO and +AO anomaly that winter coupled with a moderate LA Nina however, prevented any real cold arctic air to reach the East... That winter overall was warm though 08-09 faired better in colder temperature anomalies in the Great lakes and New England. 09-10 was a furnace across much of Canada after December..LOL. I personally despise that winter. I've been monitoring changes in the solar output recently and do you think changes in the Sun this month and into next month could have any residual effects on our winter this year with its possible link with the AO and the QBO? I believe low solar output has an effect on how the wind anomalies behave in the stratosphere connecting to the Hadley cell? Correct me if I'm wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Lol, epic. I'll never forget that outlook, or that winter. That was a La Nina winter too. Worst La Nina winter since 99-00, lol. The weenies must have flipped when they saw that outlook when it came out haha. Too bad that winter was beyond disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Or maybe this one Haha, I knew you'd love that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I'm not a long range guy, the models are really all I know. I mean, we make models for a reason too...the accuracy is waaaay down there but it's just another tool to consider. We don't know what will happen, but when we assume +PNA or -NAO or SE ridge, we are often basing it off models. Not too many people can extrapolate with any skill like the models can (as little as that skill is). I'm not a long range guy either. In fact i'm spending way too much time simply trying to prove the the long lead time predictable variables don't show us anything vis-a-vis N/E mtn snow. Regardless, if this winter plays out like 2007-2008, or some other active winter, that would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 It looks like a La Nina gradient winter. Something like 2007-2008/2008-2009 Some of those silly details aside, that's not unreasonable. Cold west and plains, warm SE. -PDO. Yeah it is as "reasonable" a first guess as any..I'm all about waiting until the end of Oct/early Nov though for a solid outlook to reach the table (SAI, etc..), and I'd imagine you agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah it is as "reasonable" a first guess as any..I'm all about waiting until the end of Oct/early Nov though for a solid outlook to reach the table (SAI, etc..), and I'd imagine you agree.We're doing well.10/1: 10/10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah it is as "reasonable" a first guess as any..I'm all about waiting until the end of Oct/early Nov though for a solid outlook to reach the table (SAI, etc..), and I'd imagine you agree. Yeah all along I wanted to wait until at least Halloween to get an idea of how November sets up. It may hint at the winter, but you know as well as anyone that it can flip in December or later. Waiting into the first half of Novie would be more ideal. The euro sips comes out on the 15th which at this time of year is not as much as a voodoo outlook like it is durin the summer. As far a the SAI goes, it may slow in eastern Asia but it seems the Eurasia side will explode soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah all along I wanted to wait until at least Halloween to get an idea of how November sets up. It may hint at the winter, but you know as well as anyone that it can flip in December or later. Waiting into the first half of Novie would be more ideal. The euro sips comes out on the 15th which at this time of year is not as much as a voodoo outlook like it is durin the summer. As far a the SAI goes, it may slow in eastern Asia but it seems the Eurasia side will explode soon. Yeah it's nice to see if you have the stratosphere signal for/against blocking, whether that be for an over all balance of the winter or, in 2011-12's case, a good Dec indication..I am a little torn on what the next 15 days brings for SAI snow cover..it does look like the eurasia side will blossom like you mentioned but how much further south of 60N can we get later this month? The 09-10 and last year Oct saw blocking across the siberian side of arctic to push those cold/snow anomalies south of 60N, im not sure this pattern does that after a certain point. Eastern Canada looks to blossom with some snow in the longer range as well for what thats worth (nothing for blocking obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah it's nice to see if you have the stratosphere signal for/against blocking, whether that be for an over all balance of the winter or, in 2011-12's case, a good Dec indication..I am a little torn on what the next 15 days brings for SAI snow cover..it does look like the eurasia side will blossom like you mentioned but how much further south of 60N can we get later this month? The 09-10 and last year Oct saw blocking across the siberian side of arctic to push those cold/snow anomalies south of 60N, im not sure this pattern does that after a certain point. Eastern Canada looks to blossom with some snow in the longer range as well for what thats worth (nothing for blocking obviously). SAI on the Eurasian side looks like it will do well south of 60N...that is the side we care most about. Far eastern Siberia has less influence...at least according to the Cohen studies. It looks like a lot of eastern and central Canada will start building up snow pack for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Speculation for an early winter took a bit of hit last night with the GFS suite knocking down the extended range +PNA ... in fact, keeps the index negative, while the NAO climbs out of 10-day nadir. May not mean much. It's only one cycle, but now there are two Pac TC moving west toward S China ...a.k.a. not recurving. heh, prolly just transition season jitters. Need to see some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Speculation for an early winter took a bit of hit last night with the GFS suite knocking down the extended range +PNA ... in fact, keeps the index negative, while the NAO climbs out of 10-day nadir. May not mean much. It's only one cycle, but now there are two Pac TC moving west toward S China ...a.k.a. not recurving. heh, prolly just transition season jitters. Need to see some consistency. you missed one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Speculation for an early winter took a bit of hit last night with the GFS suite knocking down the extended range +PNA ... in fact, keeps the index negative, while the NAO climbs out of 10-day nadir. May not mean much. It's only one cycle, but now there are two Pac TC moving west toward S China ...a.k.a. not recurving. heh, prolly just transition season jitters. Need to see some consistency. The ensemble mean still has +PNA ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 you missed one So what's the significance of one recurving while two do not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The ensemble mean still has +PNA ridging Not sure what source you are using but not according to the Centers for Climate Prediction.... The Diagnostic folks put out their own forecast, but their site is currently down due to Boehner and Obama having their heads up their collective butts... Here's the CPC and this mean in no way implies a PNA ridge.... You have to understand, the PNA is a vast domain. I think you may be confusing PNAP with PNA... PNAP is just the Perennial North American Pattern (domain space) and it is but a fraction of the total PNA, such that the PNA could be negative overall but there could still exist some vestigial western N/A ridging. Having said that, ...a negative overall PNA such as that presented below, does not statistically bode well for establishing a western ridge, and any such depiction is thus more likely to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 So what's the significance of one recurving while two do not? Exactly ... But, the current observed tracking has them moving West. What he has got there is a forecast -- maybe. It's not the be-all anyway. Recurving is just one teleconnector in a foaming vat of them. Like I said (and don't panic people) it's probably just transition season jitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The third typhoon is going to be a beast too, just recurving east of Japan. PF the other two are not recurves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Not sure what source you are using but not according to the Centers for Climate Prediction.... The Diagnostic folks put out their own forecast, but their site is currently down due to Boehner and Obama having their heads up their collective butts... Here's the CPC and this mean in no way implies a PNA ridge.... You have to understand, the PNA is a vast domain. I think you may be confusing PNAP with PNA... PNAP is just the Perennial North American Pattern (domain space) and it is but a fraction of the total PNA, such that the PNA could be negative overall but there could still exist some vestigial western N/A ridging. Having said that, ...a negative overall PNA such as that presented below, does not statistically bode well for establishing a western ridge, and any such depiction is thus more likely to change. I see what you are saying however the models all agree on PNA ridging developing next week. The image you posted doesn't even have the PNA going positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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