The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[CoastalWx]

2009/2010 warmth was also a major part of a sick -NAO recycling Atlantic air into the region. It was pretty chilly over the Plains and into the SE. Together with the ridge furnacing western Canada, it definitely wasn't the coldest winter here.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think we had a GoA low/-NAO combination for the Dec 26th Boxing Day Nor'easter (one of my favorites though my town got screwed a bit with only 13")...and then early in January 2011 we also had a bit of a +EPO until ridging finally built into Alaska after the 1/7 Norlun and set up a legendary cold and snowy stretch with the 1/12 and 1/27 storms both dropping over a foot in my area. The cold shot around 1/24 that year must have been accompanied by a -EPO...I got down to 1.8F in Dobbs Ferry. 

 

By the end of January 2011, Dobbs Ferry had 25-26" snow on the ground, and it was covered by a layer of ice in the 2/2 SW flow event. I'll never forget that snowpack, which exceeded 30" at the highest elevations of the town (425-450') deep in the woods. 

 

Heh, yes and no ... There was a bit of a negative anomaly passing through the higher latitudes of the GOA, but it wasn't a low in the truer spirit of what we are discussion - imo. In fact there is more of a flat suppressed ridge in the mid latitudes out there. 

 

 

[nzucker]

 

Yeah I agree, without dismissing the strength of El nino in 09-10 which was a bit greater than the other years you mentioned, I do consider that lack of a +pdo type setup to be a key reason/reflection on why temperatures were warmer in the 09-10 winter versus an 02-03/60-61... but i'm also with Scott in that the NPAC sst pattern is not an end all be all by any means for you guys

09-10 was a very cold winter nationally though; I believe it was in the top 20 coldest for the CONUS. December 2009 was absolutely frigid with a powerful -EPO block that sent >0C 850s all the way to the North Slope of Alaska. 

 

The PDO/Pacific ridge probably made 02-03 and 60-61 (which occurred during a -PDO regime but had a temporary +PDO) colder than 09-10, at least in our area. Also, global temperatures were near record highs in 09-10, probably close to 1C warmer than 60-61. A strong Niño tends to prevent extreme cold outbreaks save for the huge western arctic outbreak of Dec '72, which was during a very -PDO and much cooler global conditions. 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, completely agree there -- the Alaska vortex is really much more of a deal breaker than a GOA low.  We all know ... or should know (although as we recruit new members we oft' have to re-visit these lessons.  We should create a prepatory series of links that requires all new members read up a bit on some basics before having their membership approved) by now that the primary loading pattern of cold in N/A is the EPO.   Cut that flow off and you are creating all your cold locally.  I have seen a +EPO/-NAO scenario deliver ...modestly interesting cold and storminess (actually that can be good for icing), but the good stuff comes via the Siberian drill.  

 

 

Yeah we can still get snowstorms in a +EPO, but we'd better have NAO blocking...and as you said, the cold won't be that anomalous.

[CoastalWx]

The PDO was technically never positive over the summer, it certainly looked that way at times due to the pattern we had which allowed high pressure and warm water to build at the surface...underneath the whole time was the prevailing -PDO regime and it showed itself after the recent GOA low pattern. 

 

 

Yeah I agree, without dismissing the strength of El nino in 09-10 which was a bit greater than the other years you mentioned, I do consider that lack of a +pdo type setup to be a key reason/reflection on why temperatures were warmer in the 09-10 winter versus an 02-03/60-61... but i'm also with Scott in that the NPAC sst pattern is not an end all be all by any means for you guys, but I do give it much more weight than say the atlantic tripole thing, because the pdo represents a larger scale pacific circulation and is connected to enso and the tropical forcing.

 

I know you know all of this, i'm just speaking out loud lol..

 

Hey nice to see you posting again. Are you back down in NJ I guess?

[ORH_wxman]

09-10 was a very cold winter nationally though; I believe it was in the top 20 coldest for the CONUS. December 2009 was absolutely frigid with a powerful -EPO block that sent >0C 850s all the way to the North Slope of Alaska. 

 

The PDO/Pacific ridge probably made 02-03 and 60-61 (which occurred during a -PDO regime but had a temporary +PDO) colder than 09-10, at least in our area. Also, global temperatures were near record highs in 09-10, probably close to 1C warmer than 60-61. A strong Niño tends to prevent extreme cold outbreaks save for the huge western arctic outbreak of Dec '72, which was during a very -PDO and much cooler global conditions. 

 

 

'09-'10 was the 16th coldest winter on record for the U.S. So yes, it was quite cold. A winter like '02-'03 was way warmer nationally...pretty much everyone west of the Mississippi was warm that winter even though it was a very cold winter in the Northeast US.

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually .. .the more I look at the chart that I just threw up for 'Zuck'  ... the boxing-day storm really had no business even happening at all really.  That is one helluva quirked-out anomalous construct overall to have that scrunched up MW/GL ridge node against such a deep EC mid level depression.  Very shortened wave lengths for that time of year and gradient -- highly unusual.  

 

We got lucky... well, not me in Ayer -- haha, that was probably my only infamous melt-down ever when we got 4" of wind-strewn snow grains out of that waste of butt-bang time.  

 

Egh, still p'ode.   

 

Anyway, there is even arguable an Alaska vortex/GOA hybrid low to add to the oddness there.   

 

It really underscores Will and my point regarding not automatically 86ing your chances based on certain features -- there's always wiggle room.  Granted, some sets ups are more conducive, sure... but you got to remain open-minded. 

[CapturedNature]

I want Novie snow. Climo is tough here and literally exponentially tougher with every mile you go SE. My new area did ok in 2002 and 2004.

 

Back in the 80s we had back to back Veteran's Day storms that were pretty decent.  I think elevation plays a role too.  I've had measurable snow in 60% of my Novembers, including some double digit months.

[CapturedNature]

We're removing the tank Friday. Wish I could figure a way to give you all the oil. We tried the minisplits as a heating test for a minute when it was down around 40 for a few nights with coolish days. It got unbearably hot within 90 seconds. See ya oil.

 

There should be a spigot on the bottom of the tank, my brother switched his system and I filled up some 6 gallon gas jugs and put the oil into my tank. Its tedious doing 5-6 gals at a time but better than wasting it.

 

It's the same thing as diesel so if someone can't take it as heating oil, give it to someone who uses diesel.  It's dyed so don't get caught on the road with it!

[ORH_wxman]

Back in the 80s we had back to back Veteran's Day storms that were pretty decent.  I think elevation plays a role too.  I've had measurable snow in 60% of my Novembers, including some double digit months.

 

 

The 1980s had great November snows...unfortunately the rest of the winter largely sucked in that decade .We were in a pretty good November drought before last year. I hadn't seen more than an inch or so since 2005 in November before last year.

[Allsnow]

'09-'10 was the 16th coldest winter on record for the U.S. So yes, it was quite cold. A winter like '02-'03 was way warmer nationally...pretty much everyone west of the Mississippi was warm that winter even though it was a very cold winter in the Northeast US.

I believe in the early December storm in 02 it was snowing in NYC and raining in Chicago. Pretty odd

[ORH_wxman]

I believe in the early December storm in 02 it was snowing in NYC and raining in Chicago. Pretty odd

 

 

Dec 5, 2002? I would be shocked if it was in that storm recalling the setup.

[NJwinter23]

09-10 was a very cold winter nationally though; I believe it was in the top 20 coldest for the CONUS. December 2009 was absolutely frigid with a powerful -EPO block that sent >0C 850s all the way to the North Slope of Alaska. 

 

The PDO/Pacific ridge probably made 02-03 and 60-61 (which occurred during a -PDO regime but had a temporary +PDO) colder than 09-10, at least in our area. Also, global temperatures were near record highs in 09-10, probably close to 1C warmer than 60-61. A strong Niño tends to prevent extreme cold outbreaks save for the huge western arctic outbreak of Dec '72, which was during a very -PDO and much cooler global conditions. 

 

Yes that was the area of reference I had in mind..Certainly do not want to belittle the very cold national picture 09-10 had over all, just making note of how the degree of arctic cold was lacking versus what an 02-03 had in jan-feb. Lets not forget that El Nino's are supposed to have a GOA low in Dec especially, and it typically retrogrades towards the Aleutians through jan-feb with + hghts hopefully over the top. That's why Feb is usually the coldest month in such years and Dec is usually the warmest. Interestingly Dec 09 was the coldest month that winter and feb was not as cold due to that stale air Scott described.. It was a more west-based enso/pacific circulation in 09-10 which probably had a lot to do with the dec-feb outcome. Over all thinking more into it, I maybe gave the cold pool in GOA more credit than it deserved in my initial post?

[NJwinter23]

Hey nice to see you posting again. Are you back down in NJ I guess?

 

Hey Scott, it's the time of year again lol...I'm actually still based in Stamford for the time being despite what the profile says, though I frequent the NJ region still.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes that was the area of reference I had in mind..Certainly do not want to belittle the very cold national picture 09-10 had over all, just making note of how the degree of arctic cold was lacking versus what an 02-03 had in jan-feb. Lets not forget that El Nino's are supposed to have a GOA low in Dec especially, and it typically retrogrades towards the Aleutians through jan-feb with + hghts hopefully over the top. That's why Feb is usually the coldest month in such years and Dec is usually the warmest. Interestingly Dec 09 was the coldest month that winter and feb was not as cold due to that stale air Scott described.. It was a more west-based enso/pacific circulation in 09-10 which probably had a lot to do with the dec-feb outcome. Over all thinking more into it, I maybe gave the cold pool in GOA more credit than it deserved in my initial post?

 

 

I think there's def some influence on the cold pool in GOA...its just that the ENSO region is far more important. But it likely had at least some factor in the low anomaly struggling to retrograde west in '09-'10 winter.

[NJwinter23]

Actually .. .the more I look at the chart that I just threw up for 'Zuck'  ... the boxing-day storm really had no business even happening at all really.  That is one helluva quirked-out anomalous construct overall to have that scrunched up MW/GL ridge node against such a deep EC mid level depression.  Very shortened wave lengths for that time of year and gradient -- highly unusual.  

 

We got lucky... well, not me in Ayer -- haha, that was probably my only infamous melt-down ever when we got 4" of wind-strewn snow grains out of that waste of butt-bang time.  

 

Egh, still p'ode.   

 

Anyway, there is even arguable an Alaska vortex/GOA hybrid low to add to the oddness there.   

 

It really underscores Will and my point regarding not automatically 86ing your chances based on certain features -- there's always wiggle room.  Granted, some sets ups are more conducive, sure... but you got to remain open-minded. 

 

We did have a HUGE Western NA ridge in the moments/days leading up to Boxing Day that helped fling that short wave due south into the MS Valley to eventually phase, but boy was that upstream pattern aching to shove everything along the day of. We were just able to get it off in time! My 1st or 2nd favorite storm of all time...I debate Blizz of 96 with that one for various reasons that dip beyond purely snow amounts and meteorology.

 

Not so surprisingly given what you see crashing into the West on that map, it got very warm for a couple days around the turn of the year...it was 60 on new years from what I recall before hammer # 2 dropped.

[NJwinter23]

I think there's def some influence on the cold pool in GOA...its just that the ENSO region is far more important. But it likely had at least some factor in the low anomaly struggling to retrograde west in '09-'10 winter.

 

Okay that is definitely fair. Colder nationally as a result with undercutting combined with nao blocking, but not as cold in the Northeast.

[powderfreak]

Accuweather winter forecast...only posting this because it's favorable here, lol. I'll weenie myself.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742

East to Remain Mild Until Latter Half of Season

Winter weather lovers will have to be patient this year, as the start of the season in the East certainly won't pack a punch in terms of cold or snowfall. Winter will begin mildly, with a long duration of above-normal temperatures. One snow system and some chilly air could come at times during November, however.

Temperatures will fall in the latter part of the season, likely the beginning of January, allowing snow to fall along the I-95 corridor.

Philadelphia, which received only 8 inches of snow last year, will likely get higher amounts, but other areas from New York City to Boston should not expect to beat last year's totals. Overall, however, winter sports enthusiasts have a shot at an average season.

"It's not going to be a complete [snow] drought season coming up, but I think they'll have to wait until probably late in the season to get their best chances of the higher snow amounts," AccuWeather.com Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

Early in the season, the storm track will not favor coastal areas, but areas farther north, including Burlington, Vt., and areas north of Albany should have a strong chance at a white winter.

"The farther south you go, it is going to more likely be mid- to late season that you may have an opportunity to see some snow, which is typical," Pastelok said."

[powderfreak]

Accuweather's forecast maps...lol. I can't remember them not having the I-95 weenies in the jackpot.

Pure entertainment. Ginxy will have a field day with this. My favorite is the "cold shots" in the upper plains. Bold call there.

[Allsnow]

Dec 5, 2002? I would be shocked if it was in that storm recalling the setup.

I was wrong on this Will. My fault, it was 2003 and I think it was due to the warm lake waters

[dryslot]

My take is the areas between below and above are normal, And i think most folks would lock that in if they could

[It's Always Sunny]

Accuweather's forecast maps...lol. I can't remember them not having the I-95 weenies in the jackpot.

Pure entertainment. Ginxy will have a field day with this. My favorite is the "cold shots" in the upper plains. Bold call there.

image.jpg

image.jpg

[CoastalWx]

Some of those silly details aside, that's not unreasonable. Cold west and plains, warm SE. -PDO.

[ORH_wxman]

Some of those silly details aside, that's not unreasonable. Cold west and plains, warm SE. -PDO.

 

 

It looks like a La Nina gradient winter. Something like 2007-2008/2008-2009

[powderfreak]

It looks like a La Nina gradient winter. Something like 2007-2008/2008-2009

Exactly what I was thinking, looks like SWFE climo haha...with the southern Canada jackpot in like Ottawa/Montreal/Quebec.

[It's Always Sunny]

Some of those silly details aside, that's not unreasonable. Cold west and plains, warm SE. -PDO.

It's not that. The map mixes specifics with generalities which makes it look comical. 

[powderfreak]

It's not that. The map mixes specifics with generalities which makes it look comical.

All winter outlooks generally look silly as they try to get too "cute" with the details. ...especially outlooks for public consumption.

That said it's not that far off from what some have said on here with a SE ridge and trough in the center of the country...battleground in between.

The one thing that's odd is they are calling for a torch for the first part of winter in the east and it seems a lot here think the icebox is coming early this winter.

[ORH_wxman]

Exactly what I was thinking, looks like SWFE climo haha...with the southern Canada jackpot in like Ottawa/Montreal/Quebec.

 

 

I'd sign up for that right now. That type of pattern really is active. We'd have to deal with ptype on some storms, but I like the high frequency of activity. As long as there is good cold available, the active pattern will produce at least respectable snow right down into this region.

[powderfreak]

I'd sign up for that right now. That type of pattern really is active. We'd have to deal with ptype on some storms, but I like the high frequency of activity. As long as there is good cold available, the active pattern will produce at least respectable snow right down into this region.

Payback for CT's relative jackpot last year?

ORH-BOS snowing hard while it's IP in ALB and BDL...

[dryslot]

I would take a 2007-2008 gradient pattern in a heartbeat