The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[CoastalWx]

The bliz of '93 had about 2 hrs of holy sh*t. Probably some of the craziest winter wx to date with thundersnow and sleet with 70mph winds in my hood.

[OceanStWx]

SYR had 43 inches in the Mar 1993 storm but something like 22" of it fell the next day after the synoptic stuff was long gone...it was pure lake effect behind it. But 21" of synoptic snow in SYR is almost unheard of...its very impressive.

 

More than an inch for Buffalo?

[powderfreak]

Blowing out the mice but awesome to see. SR

 

Sweet!  We couldn't get cold enough at the base areas at least in central/northern VT.  The mid-elevation spots (1,500-2,000ft) where most base areas are only hit mid-30s.  The freezing temps were all down at like 600-1,200ft locally.  1,500ft at Stowe hit 36F, 1,800ft at Jay hit 36F, and Brookfield on I-89 at 1,500ft was also 36F. 

 

Still waiting for that opportunity to blow out the mice over here.  Amazing how long it takes those mid-elevation slopes to hit freezing this time of year.  We've had two hard frosts in town while the ski resort base area hasn't had any, and the upper elevations near the summit have had a freezing rain/icing event.  The mid-elevations sort of get left out for a little while this time of year.

[Ginx snewx]

Sweet!  We couldn't get cold enough at the base areas at least in central/northern VT.  The mid-elevation spots (1,500-2,000ft) where most base areas are only hit mid-30s.  The freezing temps were all down at like 600-1,200ft locally.  1,500ft at Stowe hit 36F, 1,800ft at Jay hit 36F, and Brookfield on I-89 at 1,500ft was also 36F. 

 

Still waiting for that opportunity to blow out the mice over here.  Amazing how long it takes those mid-elevation slopes to hit freezing this time of year.  We've had two hard frosts in town while the ski resort base area hasn't had any, and the upper elevations near the summit have had a freezing rain/icing event.  The mid-elevations sort of get left out for a little while this time of year.

I suspect after mid month guns will be blazing in a lot of spots, hopefully this is one of those years with like 50 % coverage Tday, has that appeal.

[OceanStWx]

I suspect after mid month guns will be blazing in a lot of spots, hopefully this is one of those years with like 50 % coverage Tday, has that appeal.

 

My Sunapee six-pack that has 4 tickets left on it (expiring in January) would agree.

[LaxSki]

I suspect after mid month guns will be blazing in a lot of spots, hopefully this is one of those years with like 50 % coverage Tday, has that appeal.[/quote man I hope your right it's been a few years since we had Good early season coverage

[CoastalWx]

Chilly 11-15 day en route. Beautiful EPO/NAO combo.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like I will have to call for my first oil delivery after looking at the ensembles.  

 

That's a pattern to deliver the first flakes for at least NNE and not just the picnic table at 4k.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like I will have to call for my first oil delivery after looking at the ensembles.  

 

That's a pattern to deliver the first flakes for at least NNE and not just the picnic table at 4k.

Fill it up and fire it up. You'll need it this weekend.

 

Cold season is just about here

[Ginx snewx]

Looks like I will have to call for my first oil delivery after looking at the ensembles.  

 

That's a pattern to deliver the first flakes for at least NNE and not just the picnic table at 4k.

Just some help to a new home buyer, fill your tank in July- Sept when home heating oil prices are at historical mins

[adk]

Yeah, a lot of V-Day was terrain enhancement because we only received about 2', maybe a tad more, on the valley floor at Middlebury College at 350' elevation. It was still a terrific storm, but the pictures from the mountains completely dwarfed the amount of snow we received. That was a very high impact blizzard though, actually closing Middlebury College for a day which rarely happens due to snow. Every other major snowstorm was handled without much notice, including the St. Patty's Day 2007 event (prob around 14"), the Jan 2009 SW flow event (another 12.5"), and even the Jan 2010 orographic blocking storm (24"). Even though the Jan 2010 storm had similar amounts to Valentine's Day 2007, the heavy wet snow in 2007 combined with much higher winds made the Feb 14th event so much more difficult to clean up. Classes resumed as normal on January 4, 2010 but were canceled on February 15, 2007, showing the major differences in those storms. We also got 20" on February 24, 2010, the second 20" event of the year (a wet snow, too), but that event was also minor compared to V-Day because we didn't have the high winds. I also think the campus gradually got better cleaning up snow because Middlebury saw nearly 100" in 07-08 as well as the two major storms in 2007. 

 

I don't know, I see some mixed signals. The Snow Advance Index (SAI) is likely to give a signal for a -NAO/-AO pattern as the snow cover is building rapidly in Siberia towards the lower latitude of Eurasia, which is excellent for us. Arctic sea ice is also much more robust than the past few years; we have two million kilometers more than last year and have picked up 1.4 million kilometers in just 10 days. The rapid development of the cryosphere argues for a colder winter than the last few, with potentially more opportunities in the early season as cold air is faster to build southward.

 

However, the PAC pattern is not ideal with cold SSTs taking over the Gulf of Alaska and a very strong -PDO signal, which tends to favor more of a western trough. The shift from a summertime +PDO to a wintertime -PDO currently occurring is the opposite of what we'd like to see. We might see more of an Aleutian ridge, however, which could set up a -EPO gradient pattern. Another negative is that the Atlantic SST tripole isn't really there to form a -NAO, but that's a weak correlation. And the polar vortex does seem to want to drift towards Asia early, not sure if that's correlated with later in the winter, but I know for certain that one of the reasons we've lacked extreme cold in recent years in the Northeast is that the polar vortex has been mostly centered over Siberia. All the big cold anomalies in the winters of 2010, 2011, and 2013 were on the Eurasian side, with North America being cut off from the coldest air in the hemisphere. I'd like to see the PV start to migrate back into Canada by early November to build up Canadian snow cover, freeze Hudson Bay, and ensure we see some of the real nasty cold by winter's start. 

 

I am a firm believer that it we don't know the best variables to use to predict what winter will be like above 2500 feet in the northeast with any degree of reliable certainty this far in advance. There are simply too many issues that need to be resolved. 

 

That said what NZ wrote is fantastic.  I just think it sorta sums up my thoughts in a way. 

 

I think the key in winter weather forecasting in the N/E is to give people 14 days lead time for interesting periods and know the patterns so you can find the "magic" snow that develops out of mesoscale or even smaller patterns. 

[weathafella]

Looks like I will have to call for my first oil delivery after looking at the ensembles.  

 

That's a pattern to deliver the first flakes for at least NNE and not just the picnic table at 4k.

We're removing the tank Friday. Wish I could figure a way to give you all the oil. We tried the minisplits as a heating test for a minute when it was down around 40 for a few nights with coolish days. It got unbearably hot within 90 seconds. See ya oil.

[dryslot]

Just some help to a new home buyer, fill your tank in July- Sept when home heating oil prices are at historical mins

 

That rule of thumb is tossed out the window up here, Prices have remained high all summer here $3.39/gal

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like I will have to call for my first oil delivery after looking at the ensembles.  

 

That's a pattern to deliver the first flakes for at least NNE and not just the picnic table at 4k.

 

 

Yeah mentioned that yesterday...some people would see their first flakes in that type of pattern being shown. Still a ways out, but that is quite similar to previous late October snow patterns in New England...but we'll see how it evolves and if anything lines up for it...doesn't have to be a storm either, could just be that late November/early December feel with the interior seeing some flakes.

 

But the longwave components are there for a solid intrusion of cold...magnitude obviously won't be figured out this far out.

[CarverWX]

Looks like I will have to call for my first oil delivery after looking at the ensembles.  

 

That's a pattern to deliver the first flakes for at least NNE and not just the picnic table at 4k.

Do you have NG on your Street? If so conversion of the boiler is the way to go.

[CoastalWx]

Do you have NG on your Street? If so conversion of the boiler is the way to go.

 

600' away and would cost 42 grand. Not doable. 

[Modfan]

Question regarding some old folk lore on predicting Winters, but I've been told if you see bees nest built up high, it is an indication of a snowy winter, if the are down low less snow?  As of late I have noticed quite a few white faced hornets nest up between transformers on telephone poles, and not noticing as many close to the ground......Is this meaningless???

[Ginx snewx]

Question regarding some old folk lore on predicting Winters, but I've been told if you see bees nest built up high, it is an indication of a snowy winter, if the are down low less snow?  As of late I have noticed quite a few white faced hornets nest up between transformers on telephone poles, and not noticing as many close to the ground......Is this meaningless???

pretty much, but just for laughs 2011 they were way high 2012 near the ground and last year halfway up.

[mitchnick]

I'll say this again...I have a hard time seeing the physical mechanism for waters in the NPAC to dictate the pattern. Rather then dictate it, I think it helps feed back on the pattern....but people get way too much into the SST issue. Waters in the 40s are simply not going to have a huge influence on the pattern as compared to ENSO regions where the potential energy is so much higher. So the water south of PANC is 48 instead of 44. Whoopee. It can also be skin deep which is why the waters cooled so quickly there.

fwiw, I agree 100%

I know it was a mod/strong NINO which obviously had a lot to say in the 09/10 winter, but I don't think anyone of us in the MA would have expected what we got that winter with the NPAC looking like this the last day of November, 2009

[DavisStraight]

We're removing the tank Friday. Wish I could figure a way to give you all the oil. We tried the minisplits as a heating test for a minute when it was down around 40 for a few nights with coolish days. It got unbearably hot within 90 seconds. See ya oil.

There should be a spigot on the bottom of the tank, my brother switched his system and I filled up some 6 gallon gas jugs and put the oil into my tank. Its tedious doing 5-6 gals at a time but better than wasting it.

[ORH_wxman]

fwiw, I agree 100%

I know it was a mod/strong NINO which obviously had a lot to say in the 09/10 winter, but I don't think anyone of us in the MA would have expected what we got that winter with the NPAC looking like this the last day of November, 2009

 

 

 

We actually spent much of 2009-2010 with a GOA low...it was just that we had is slightly west enough to pump up a decent ridge in NW Canada...and of course the NAO blocking was insane. But it definitely wasn't a Pacific pattern on the order of something like, say, 2002-2003 or 1960-1961. So there was likely at least some influence of the pattern of SST anomalies in the PDO region.

[weathafella]

Do you have NG on your Street? If so conversion of the boiler is the way to go.

600' away and would cost 42 grand. Not doable.

PM me if you want the name of the minisplits guy. No oil, no gas, lowest cost out there other than solar which costa a fortune to put in.

[Typhoon Tip]

We actually spent much of 2009-2010 with a GOA low...it was just that we had is slightly west enough to pump up a decent ridge in NW Canada...and of course the NAO blocking was insane. But it definitely wasn't a Pacific pattern on the order of something like, say, 2002-2003 or 1960-1961. So there was likely at least some influence of the pattern of SST anomalies in the PDO region.

 

 

Devil's in the details...  I personally see the GOA freak out hair raising woe-is-us,  as a bit over-rated.  Yeah, there is some L/W spacing issues with it, but it's way far from absolute.  I've seen concurrent eastern N/A events with both GOA lows and not.  

 

From my experience of the board since Eastern's day ... it occurred one year or perhaps two in the last 10 years, where the polar-field indices took a back seat and opened the entire mid latitudes of the U.S. to Pacific flow.  Ever since, it's been Saturday night live "Fright Family" hair flips whenever a GOA low shows up in the charts, but it all strikes me as too small of a sample set to assume it will be negative/detrimental to winter enthusiasts, locally.  

 

If the NAO is substantially negative, I would almost argue that is just one example where you could benefit with a GOA low, because it would tend to spit fragment waves out into the flow that would interact with the NAO circulation favorably toward producing winter events. 

[ORH_wxman]

Devil's in the details...  I personally see the GOA freak out hair raising woe-is-us,  as a bit over-rated.  Yeah, there is some L/W spacing issues with it, but it's way far from absolute.  I've seen concurrent eastern N/A events with both GOA lows and not.  

 

From my experience of the board since Eastern's day ... it occurred one year or perhaps two in the last 10 years, where the polar-field indices took a back seat and opened the entire mid latitudes of the U.S. to Pacific flow.  Ever since, it's been Saturday night live "Fright Family" hair flips whenever a GOA low shows up in the charts, but it all strikes me as too small of a sample set to assume it will be negative/detrimental to winter enthusiasts, locally.  

 

 

I'm not afraid of a GOA low...in fact, we've had many a great winter with one. I'm terrified of an AK vortex up over the EPO region though which is further north and a bit west of the classic GOA low....good luck finding a decent winter when that was in place.

[CoastalWx]

PM me if you want the name of the minisplits guy. No oil, no gas, lowest cost out there other than solar which costa a fortune to put in.

 

Thanks Jerry. Won't be for a while after the money I put into the house..but we'll see how the winter goes.

[nzucker]

We actually spent much of 2009-2010 with a GOA low...it was just that we had is slightly west enough to pump up a decent ridge in NW Canada...and of course the NAO blocking was insane. But it definitely wasn't a Pacific pattern on the order of something like, say, 2002-2003 or 1960-1961. So there was likely at least some influence of the pattern of SST anomalies in the PDO region.

Atlantic SSTs were very favorable in that image, however, with a well-defined Newfoundland cold pool and warmer waters towards Greenland. This allows for the development of a -NAO and 50/50 low, which was probably enhanced by the low solar activity and El Niño allowing more ozone transport and hence warming the stratosphere. Therefore, we had a bunch of different factors aligned for a historic -AO/-NAO, SSTs minor but among them.

 

The GoA low probably prevented a colder winter in 09-10, as we saw few arctic outbreaks despite generally below normal weather in the CONUS. December '09 had a -EPO with extremely cold air plunging into the Plains, and even into New England (which was warm most of the winter due to the west-based NAO block), but the rest of the winter featured a GoA low and thus the cold mostly disappeared. The mid-Atlantic and Southeast stayed well below normal due to northerly flow off the Greenland/Canada block, but it wasn't arctic air but rather recycled maritime polar airmasses that were colder than normal that far south. 

[NJwinter23]

 

However, the PAC pattern is not ideal with cold SSTs taking over the Gulf of Alaska and a very strong -PDO signal, which tends to favor more of a western trough. The shift from a summertime +PDO to a wintertime -PDO currently occurring is the opposite of what we'd like to see. We might see more of an Aleutian ridge, however, which could set up a -EPO gradient pattern. Another negative is that the Atlantic SST tripole isn't really there to form a -NAO, but that's a weak correlation. And the polar vortex does seem to want to drift towards Asia early, not sure if that's correlated with later in the winter, but I know for certain that one of the reasons we've lacked extreme cold in recent years in the Northeast is that the polar vortex has been mostly centered over Siberia. All the big cold anomalies in the winters of 2010, 2011, and 2013 were on the Eurasian side, with North America being cut off from the coldest air in the hemisphere. I'd like to see the PV start to migrate back into Canada by early November to build up Canadian snow cover, freeze Hudson Bay, and ensure we see some of the real nasty cold by winter's start. 

 

The PDO was technically never positive over the summer, it certainly looked that way at times due to the pattern we had which allowed high pressure and warm water to build at the surface...underneath the whole time was the prevailing -PDO regime and it showed itself after the recent GOA low pattern. 

 

We actually spent much of 2009-2010 with a GOA low...it was just that we had is slightly west enough to pump up a decent ridge in NW Canada...and of course the NAO blocking was insane. But it definitely wasn't a Pacific pattern on the order of something like, say, 2002-2003 or 1960-1961. So there was likely at least some influence of the pattern of SST anomalies in the PDO region.

 

Yeah I agree, without dismissing the strength of El nino in 09-10 which was a bit greater than the other years you mentioned, I do consider that lack of a +pdo type setup to be a key reason/reflection on why temperatures were warmer in the 09-10 winter versus an 02-03/60-61... but i'm also with Scott in that the NPAC sst pattern is not an end all be all by any means for you guys, but I do give it much more weight than say the atlantic tripole thing, because the pdo represents a larger scale pacific circulation and is connected to enso and the tropical forcing.

 

I know you know all of this, i'm just speaking out loud lol..

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not afraid of a GOA low...in fact, we've had many a great winter with one. I'm terrified of an AK vortex up over the EPO region though which is further north and a bit west of the classic GOA low....good luck finding a decent winter when that was in place.

 

Yeah, completely agree there -- the Alaska vortex is really much more of a deal breaker than a GOA low.  We all know ... or should know (although as we recruit new members we oft' have to re-visit these lessons.  We should create a prepatory series of links that requires all new members read up a bit on some basics before having their membership approved) by now that the primary loading pattern of cold in N/A is the EPO.   Cut that flow off and you are creating all your cold locally.  I have seen a +EPO/-NAO scenario deliver ...modestly interesting cold and storminess (actually that can be good for icing), but the good stuff comes via the Siberian drill.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder if we'll see something like this again this year?

 You'll see something like this during the season: :weenie:

[nzucker]

I'm not afraid of a GOA low...in fact, we've had many a great winter with one. I'm terrified of an AK vortex up over the EPO region though which is further north and a bit west of the classic GOA low....good luck finding a decent winter when that was in place.

I think we had a GoA low/-NAO combination for the Dec 26th Boxing Day Nor'easter (one of my favorites though my town got screwed a bit with only 13")...and then early in January 2011 we also had a bit of a +EPO until ridging finally built into Alaska after the 1/7 Norlun and set up a legendary cold and snowy stretch with the 1/12 and 1/27 storms both dropping over a foot in my area. The cold shot around 1/24 that year must have been accompanied by a -EPO...I got down to 1.8F in Dobbs Ferry. 

 

By the end of January 2011, Dobbs Ferry had 25-26" snow on the ground, and it was covered by a layer of ice in the 2/2 SW flow event. I'll never forget that snowpack, which exceeded 30" at the highest elevations of the town (425-450') deep in the woods.