The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[powderfreak]

I wonder if we'll see something like this again this year?

 

 

 

Holding out hope for another October/Rocktober bomb?

[Ginx snewx]

Will what those stats show me is the younger crew born since 1980 are spoiled with some big winters,especially since 92

[OceanStWx]

Will what those stats show me is the younger crew born since 1980 are spoiled with some big winters,especially since 92

 

As well as some weenies with selective memories.

[weathafella]

No measurable before 11/1 please. TYIA.

[powderfreak]

I want another Superstorm... leaving snowfall from the Gulf Coast all the way to northern Maine. 

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

That was last year PF,North and east. How did you do 03/04?

[Typhoon Tip]

I want another Superstorm... leaving snowfall from the Gulf Coast all the way to northern Maine. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not to take anything away from the majesty of that event.  I truly was epic and historic and all-time and all that pomp and circumstance cannot be denied. 

 

But where I lived in Acton Mass (about 25 mi as the crow flies W of Boston) that storm was actually pretty pedestrian.  I have seen more than 10 events since then with more snow.  The wind did not cause any power disruptions in my area, either.  If I hadn't watched the weather channel's hyping for the previous 10 days leading up to that event, I would have thought it no more than a standard Noreaster, a good solid strong Noreaster.  It was over and done in 12 to 15 hours and we had 15" of total snow.  We had whiteout conditions for 2 hours, though... But the snow got sleety and actually, at around 8pm that night, it abated to an interesting setting of occasional CC lightning, and what looked like frozen mix of sleet and snow balls.  But not falling heavy.   The core of the low went pretty much right over Worcester and Middlesex Co, and when it did, we were doing nothing and it was calm by 1am.    

 

The problem is, ...which is nicely defined by that snow total map, the storm was a bit too far west to really clock SNE.   Though the Berks did well.   

[powderfreak]

Not to take anything away from the majesty of that event. I truly was epic and historic and all-time and all that pomp and circumstance cannot be denied.

But where I lived in Acton Mass (about 25 mi as the crow flies W of Boston) that storm was actually pretty pedestrian. I have seen more than 10 events since then with more snow. The wind did not cause any power disruptions in my area, either. If I hadn't watched the weather channel's hyping for the previous 10 days leading up to that event, I would have thought it no more than a standard Noreaster, a good solid strong Noreaster. It was over and done in 12 to 15 hours and we had 15" of total snow. We had whiteout conditions for 2 hours, though... But the snow got sleety and actually, at around 8pm that night, it abated to an interesting setting of occasional CC lightning, and what looked like frozen mix of sleet and snow balls. But not falling heavy. The core of the low went pretty much right over Worcester and Middlesex Co, and when it did, we were doing nothing and it was calm by 1am.

The problem is, ...which is nicely defined by that snow total map, the storm was a bit too far west to really clock SNE. Though the Berks did well.

I have photos my parents took of our house near ALB (I was 9 at the time, so some memories of it too, but not all) and that was the largest snowstorm I saw in my 18 years growing up there. SYracuse further west had over 40".

A little joking, but in Acton you seem to have pedestrian events whenever there's a historic storm on a larger level, haha.

[powderfreak]

That was last year PF,North and east. How did you do 03/04?

A little above average...nothing out of the ordinary but a solid snow year. BTV had 95" about a foot over normal...Why?

[heavy_wx]

I have photos my parents took of our house near ALB (I was 9 at the time, so some memories of it too, but not all) and that was the largest snowstorm I saw in my 18 years growing up there. SYracuse further west had over 40".

A little joking, but in Acton you seem to have pedestrian events whenever there's a historic storm on a larger level, haha.

 

A good deal of the snow in Syracuse was actually lake enhancement though. I was still an infant at that time unfortunately so I missed that event in Albany.

[powderfreak]

A good deal of the snow in Syracuse was actually lake enhancement though. I was still an infant at that time unfortunately so I missed that event in Albany.

Maybe but looking at the radar loop, much of upstate NY in the SYR-BGM area was in the CCB/pivot point for much of the storm. That large push of moisture with the WAA off the Atlantic just hit a wall and massive frontogenisis looked to have hit that area for like 12-18 hours straight.

[heavy_wx]

Maybe but looking at the radar loop, much of upstate NY in the SYR-BGM area was in the CCB/pivot point for much of the storm. That large push of moisture with the WAA off the Atlantic just hit a wall and massive frontogenisis looked to have hit that area for like 12-18 hours straight.

 

True, banding was obviously significant in that area, though it can be a bit difficult to separate lake enhancement effects from mesoscale banding. Judging by the snow reports, the areas in the southern Finger Lakes generally had snowfall in the 20 inch range, while the SYR/UCA area more along the fetch of the wind had a few 40 inch reports.

[Ginx snewx]

A little above average...nothing out of the ordinary but a solid snow year. BTV had 95" about a foot over normal...Why?

my bad on the typos 93/94 I am intrigued by the similarities to 91/92 11/12 92/93 12/13 93/94?

13/14?

[powderfreak]

True, banding was obviously significant in that area, though it can be a bit difficult to separate lake enhancement effects from mesoscale banding. Judging by the snow reports, the areas in the southern Finger Lakes generally had snowfall in the 20 inch range, while the SYR/UCA area more along the fetch of the wind had a few 40 inch reports.

 

Here are some snowfall reports from the Albany area...and for some reason BTV is in this list as well from News Channel 6's historical weather archives.

 

I could see some lake enhancement out by UCA and SYR... but I wouldn't use that to diminish the strength of the storm.  The totals near 30-inches in the Capital Distric around ALB and even around 40 inches in the Catskills are all areas are away from lake influence.

 

Then again, I don't know how anyone measured this... even ALB was gusting over 50mph in this storm and that's pretty impressive for them if you are familiar with the area.  Probably translates to 70mph+ over the higher terrain.

 

[powderfreak]

my bad on the typos 93/94 I am intrigued by the similarities to 91/92 11/12 92/93 12/13 93/94?

13/14?

 

Nice... 2011-2012 though stands out like a sore thumb in the snowfall department.  Not sure how it compares down in SNE with the others though.

 

Per BTV records that winter is over 40 inches less than the next lowest (91-92).  All the year's you listed were average or above (80"+) with the exception of 2011-2012 which is the second lowest total in over 120 years (37.7").

[heavy_wx]

Here are some snowfall reports from the Albany area...and for some reason BTV is in this list as well from News Channel 6's historical weather archives.

 

I could see some lake enhancement out by UCA and SYR... but I wouldn't use that to diminish the strength of the storm.  The totals near 30-inches in the Capital Distric around ALB and even around 40 inches in the Catskills are all areas are away from lake influence.

 

Then again, I don't know how anyone measured this... even ALB was gusting over 50mph in this storm and that's pretty impressive for them if you are familiar with the area.  Probably translates to 70mph+ over the higher terrain.

 

Untitled.jpg

 

No question it was an impressive storm, certainly one of the largest storms in the interior NE. I was merely saying that the reports in central NY included some lake enhancement. Orthographic effects certainly enhanced some of the totals in the higher terrain of the Catskills and Helderbergs.

[powderfreak]

No question it was an impressive storm, certainly one of the largest storms in the interior NE. I was merely saying that the reports in central NY included some lake enhancement. Orthographic effects certainly enhanced some of the totals in the higher terrain of the Catskills and Helderbergs.

 

Yeah, I would assume the 40 inch amounts in the eastern Catskills weren't by chance...deep easterly flow during the first half of the storm had to rip them. 

 

And I get what you are saying though...its sort of the same thing up here with big nor'easters like that where the fronto and deformation line up with NW winds, we'll get the upslope/orographic assist, in addition to the synoptic snows.  So it makes it harder to separate the two.  Valentines Day 2007 was like that when the mountains got legit 36-48" amounts.  I wouldn't attribute all of it to purely the synoptic storm, there's probably an extra foot in there that NW flow helped wring out.  But it all gets lumped together into one big storm total.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice... 2011-2012 though stands out like a sore thumb in the snowfall department. Not sure how it compares down in SNE with the others though.

Per BTV records that winter is over 40 inches less than the next lowest (91-92). All the year's you listed were average or above (80"+) with the exception of 2011-2012 which is the second lowest total in over 120 years (37.7").

more to the Bob Irene, Perfect Storm, Sandy, Superstorm , Blizz 13.. 91/92 11/12 were sucky winters 92/93 12/13 rocked, 93/94 rocked 13/14?

[powderfreak]

more to the Bob Irene, Perfect Storm, Sandy, Superstorm , Blizz 13.. 91/92 11/12 were sucky winters 92/93 12/13 rocked, 93/94 rocked 13/14?

 

As conservative/reserved as I usually am going into a winter season, the one thing I like is there is no glowing red flag right now for a clunker.

 

The best thing is every winter is different and unique, and from NYC northward, we (in this sub-forum) live in locations where the average annual snowfall is high enough that we are pretty much guaranteed some fun events to track no matter what. 

 

It will get cold and it will snow.

[Ginx snewx]

Tongue in cheek with this but interesting

[Typhoon Tip]

I have photos my parents took of our house near ALB (I was 9 at the time, so some memories of it too, but not all) and that was the largest snowstorm I saw in my 18 years growing up there. SYracuse further west had over 40".

A little joking, but in Acton you seem to have pedestrian events whenever there's a historic storm on a larger level, haha.

 

 

Word!   haha, I think it is more like where ever "I" am, there is a meso negative gravity butt bang wave

[ORH_wxman]

Maybe but looking at the radar loop, much of upstate NY in the SYR-BGM area was in the CCB/pivot point for much of the storm. That large push of moisture with the WAA off the Atlantic just hit a wall and massive frontogenisis looked to have hit that area for like 12-18 hours straight.

 

 

SYR had 43 inches in the Mar 1993 storm but something like 22" of it fell the next day after the synoptic stuff was long gone...it was pure lake effect behind it. But 21" of synoptic snow in SYR is almost unheard of...its very impressive.

[nzucker]

I want Novie snow. Climo is tough here and literally exponentially tougher with every mile you go SE. My new area did ok in 2002 and 2004.

It's not that bad; you're certainly far enough north to expect some possibilities for snowfall during November, especially in the latter half of the month...Dobbs Ferry had 10" of snow on October 29, 2011 and 8" on November 7, 2012. My area is MUCH warmer than yours, with both lower latitude and proximity to the urban heat island, and we've seen two major (historic) pre-December snowfalls in just the past two seasons. Even Central Park accumulated 2.9" in Oct 2011 and over 3" in the November event. It was impressive driving home from Brooklyn in last year's November event, with city streets covered in snow on a day in early November when the average high is still about 60F, then entering Westchester and having to drive through an all-out blizzard with power lines down, buses stuck on snowy hills, and traffic gnarled in every way possible. 

 

Those two events resulted in such polar opposite winters, however. Only 20" fell in Dobbs Ferry during 11-12, with 10" coming on 10/29 and 5.5" on 1/21 (check that date). Last winter saw 52", with 8" on 11/7, another minor event in late November, 17" in the 2/8 bomb, 10" in 3/7, and 5" on 3/19 SW flow event. Very impressive winter last year with three accumulating snowfalls in a March that finished -2.5F, two accumulating snowfalls in November that finished -4F departure, and an historic 20" blizzard in February that finished -1.5F with a memorable cold weekend later in the month. 

[uncle W]

like NYC if you have a mild fall the average Boston snowfall is 31.2 based on the top 20 warmest falls I could find...Boston's Fall average temperature is 54.8...The 20 years averaged 55.9 in 1959 to 58.4 in 2011 if my math is correct...I could have missed a few but I bet they average the same...I don't expect this year to make the list but if the warmth continues it could happen...

year ave temp snowfall..

2011-12....58.4.....9.3"

1931-32....58.3...24.2"

1975-76....57.6...46.6"

1927-28....57.5...26.8"

1946-47....57.4...19.4"

1983-84....57.2...43.0"

1990-91....57.1...19.1"

1953-54....57.0...23.6"

1961-62....56.9...44.7"

1971-72....56.9...47.5"

1941-42....56.6...24.0"

2001-02....56.6...15.1"

2007-08....56.6...51.2"

1948-49....56.5...37.1"

1963-64....56.3...63.0"

1957-58....56.3...44.7"

1994-95....56.2...14.9"

1999-00....56.0...24.9"

2006-07....56.0...17.1"

1959-60....55.9...34.1"

in the 20 yrs Boston had:

60+ 1 

50+ 1

40+ 5

30+ 2

20+ 5

10+ 5

T.. +1

 

[Ginx snewx]

Blowing out the mice but awesome to see. SR

[Hitman]

I wonder if we'll see something like this again this year?

Ack! I just threw up in my mouth. What a disaster that was for me both at home in the lower Hudson valley and for skiing in the mad river valley.

[nzucker]

Yeah, I would assume the 40 inch amounts in the eastern Catskills weren't by chance...deep easterly flow during the first half of the storm had to rip them. 

 

And I get what you are saying though...its sort of the same thing up here with big nor'easters like that where the fronto and deformation line up with NW winds, we'll get the upslope/orographic assist, in addition to the synoptic snows.  So it makes it harder to separate the two.  Valentines Day 2007 was like that when the mountains got legit 36-48" amounts.  I wouldn't attribute all of it to purely the synoptic storm, there's probably an extra foot in there that NW flow helped wring out.  But it all gets lumped together into one big storm total.

Yeah, a lot of V-Day was terrain enhancement because we only received about 2', maybe a tad more, on the valley floor at Middlebury College at 350' elevation. It was still a terrific storm, but the pictures from the mountains completely dwarfed the amount of snow we received. That was a very high impact blizzard though, actually closing Middlebury College for a day which rarely happens due to snow. Every other major snowstorm was handled without much notice, including the St. Patty's Day 2007 event (prob around 14"), the Jan 2009 SW flow event (another 12.5"), and even the Jan 2010 orographic blocking storm (24"). Even though the Jan 2010 storm had similar amounts to Valentine's Day 2007, the heavy wet snow in 2007 combined with much higher winds made the Feb 14th event so much more difficult to clean up. Classes resumed as normal on January 4, 2010 but were canceled on February 15, 2007, showing the major differences in those storms. We also got 20" on February 24, 2010, the second 20" event of the year (a wet snow, too), but that event was also minor compared to V-Day because we didn't have the high winds. I also think the campus gradually got better cleaning up snow because Middlebury saw nearly 100" in 07-08 as well as the two major storms in 2007. 

 

As conservative/reserved as I usually am going into a winter season, the one thing I like is there is no glowing red flag right now for a clunker.

 

The best thing is every winter is different and unique, and from NYC northward, we (in this sub-forum) live in locations where the average annual snowfall is high enough that we are pretty much guaranteed some fun events to track no matter what. 

 

It will get cold and it will snow.

I don't know, I see some mixed signals. The Snow Advance Index (SAI) is likely to give a signal for a -NAO/-AO pattern as the snow cover is building rapidly in Siberia towards the lower latitude of Eurasia, which is excellent for us. Arctic sea ice is also much more robust than the past few years; we have two million kilometers more than last year and have picked up 1.4 million kilometers in just 10 days. The rapid development of the cryosphere argues for a colder winter than the last few, with potentially more opportunities in the early season as cold air is faster to build southward.

 

However, the PAC pattern is not ideal with cold SSTs taking over the Gulf of Alaska and a very strong -PDO signal, which tends to favor more of a western trough. The shift from a summertime +PDO to a wintertime -PDO currently occurring is the opposite of what we'd like to see. We might see more of an Aleutian ridge, however, which could set up a -EPO gradient pattern. Another negative is that the Atlantic SST tripole isn't really there to form a -NAO, but that's a weak correlation. And the polar vortex does seem to want to drift towards Asia early, not sure if that's correlated with later in the winter, but I know for certain that one of the reasons we've lacked extreme cold in recent years in the Northeast is that the polar vortex has been mostly centered over Siberia. All the big cold anomalies in the winters of 2010, 2011, and 2013 were on the Eurasian side, with North America being cut off from the coldest air in the hemisphere. I'd like to see the PV start to migrate back into Canada by early November to build up Canadian snow cover, freeze Hudson Bay, and ensure we see some of the real nasty cold by winter's start. 

[CoastalWx]

It's not that bad; you're certainly far enough north to expect some possibilities for snowfall during November, especially in the latter half of the month...Dobbs Ferry had 10" of snow on October 29, 2011 and 8" on November 7, 2012. My area is MUCH warmer than yours, with both lower latitude and proximity to the urban heat island, and we've seen two major (historic) pre-December snowfalls in just the past two seasons. Even Central Park accumulated 2.9" in Oct 2011 and over 3" in the November event. It was impressive driving home from Brooklyn in last year's November event, with city streets covered in snow on a day in early November when the average high is still about 60F, then entering Westchester and having to drive through an all-out blizzard with power lines down, buses stuck on snowy hills, and traffic gnarled in every way possible. 

 

Those two events resulted in such polar opposite winters, however. Only 20" fell in Dobbs Ferry during 11-12, with 10" coming on 10/29 and 5.5" on 1/21 (check that date). Last winter saw 52", with 8" on 11/7, another minor event in late November, 17" in the 2/8 bomb, 10" in 3/7, and 5" on 3/19 SW flow event. Very impressive winter last year with three accumulating snowfalls in a March that finished -2.5F, two accumulating snowfalls in November that finished -4F departure, and an historic 20" blizzard in February that finished -1.5F with a memorable cold weekend later in the month. 

You are forgetting one major problem I have early in the season. Longitude. There is a reason I got screwed in both of those events. 

[CoastalWx]

I'll say this again...I have a hard time seeing the physical mechanism for waters in the NPAC to dictate the pattern. Rather then dictate it, I think it helps feed back on the pattern....but people get way too much into the SST issue. Waters in the 40s are simply not going to have a huge influence on the pattern as compared to ENSO regions where the potential energy is so much higher. So the water south of PANC is 48 instead of 44. Whoopee. It can also be skin deep which is why the waters cooled so quickly there.

[powderfreak]

SYR had 43 inches in the Mar 1993 storm but something like 22" of it fell the next day after the synoptic stuff was long gone...it was pure lake effect behind it. But 21" of synoptic snow in SYR is almost unheard of...its very impressive.

 

My apologies to that other dude... I didn't know it was *that* disjointed.  The radar loops looked like they were in the pivot the whole time.