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The early speculation on winter 2013-14


weathafella

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bitches

 

What leaps out at me about these model images is not the tremendously convenient to cold weather enthusiast region that wins the spatial lottery over eastern Can/NE US, its the fact that it's virtually the only negative anomaly on the whole planet.  Everywhere else is neutral positive.   That's a pretty amazing global signal for warmth 

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I'm torn. My new house has oil which completely blows. So do I hope for a cold winter and go broke? :lol:

The total conundrum (used properly here Kev) of home ownership and being a weather lover. I have double the same irony being a large facility director. Torn between love and reality.
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The total conundrum (used properly here Kev) of home ownership and being a weather lover. I have double the same irony being a large facility director. Torn between love and reality.

 

As long as my firewood pile is big enough, let the cold come.  (And some snow, of course, for insulation.)

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The truth is, the cost of oil is high and even in warm winters you pay through the nose. Don't let your wife buffalo you onto keeping the house in the 70s because of a young child...he'll thrive and so will both of you in cooler house temperatures.

Big winter incoming.

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lucked into having a house with Nat Gas...wasn't really a big deal back in 03-the price of oil and gas were similar so it wasn't an advantage to have either.  Gas has dropped significantly since then making it less than half the price of heating with oil.   It's expensive to convert-you would need a whole new furnace plus the cost to bring in the gas line....would take years just to break even.

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Hello everyone! Anyone can answer this if they want. Why was 2011-12 winter so warm despite a -QBO? I know we had a moderate nina that winter. The nao and ao were super positive for the most part all winter. Also, was there warning signs early on that it was going to be warm maybe with sst's that didnt line up in the atlantic? Thanks kevin

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I'm torn. My new house has oil which completely blows. So do I hope for a cold winter and go broke? :lol:

I use two small modern electric heaters, and a pro-level humidifier...house feels like FL in the winter.  Fairly inexpensive.

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I use two small modern electric heaters, and a pro-level humidifier...house feels like FL in the winter. Fairly inexpensive.

My parents have two electric heaters too and claim it had reduced the heating bill. I'll see how it goes this winter before getting something like a pellet stove.

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the cfs forecasts for this july from the past few months are blowing chunks

they are completely useless this far out for winter. Historically they have been unreliable and frankly im curious to what purpose they have unless they are more of a experimental product.
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Euro seasonal forecast has a Nina signal with a pretty stout ridge over the East Coast for NDJ. It's cold in the Canadian praries into the Plains. It does have a semblance of a -NAO too with ridging into AK. The euro sips should be out in a week or so.

I'd be curious about the monthly breakdown. I'm thinking we bias temperatures aoa deep into autumn.

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I'd be curious about the monthly breakdown. I'm thinking we bias temperatures aoa deep into autumn.

 

It's an interesting look at H5, definitely Nina similarities. The ENSO is the big caveat because it's possible we may be at least neutral warm. That may help reduce the SE ridge a tad.

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Euro seasonal forecast has a Nina signal with a pretty stout ridge over the East Coast for NDJ. It's cold in the Canadian praries into the Plains. It does have a semblance of a -NAO too with ridging into AK. The euro sips should be out in a week or so.

Suppression cancel. Whew. ;)

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 My parents have two electric heaters too and claim it had reduced the heating bill. I'll see how it goes this winter before getting something like a pellet stove.

Yeah they can help, but the high-grade humidifier is crucial jmo..unless your furnace is already hooked up for that.  Nothing worse than hot, dry electric heat.  Static electricity, dry skin, x-mas tree fires, etc.  :o

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