The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[powderfreak]

I wrote to them and told them do a EPO state correlation

 

What would your hypothesis be regarding that?

 

The NAO correlations are pretty much what I'm always talking about... something that averages near neutral seems to give us the most snowfall and frequency of snows (no major long periods of blocking/suppression creating dry months).  The ENSO state is interesting, but I think it makes sense.  Nina's seem to keep us in the storm track up here.

[radarman]

Not trying to hate on the guys but they spend the majority of the outlook doing a nice job proving how ENSO doesn't correlate well with Mansfield snow and then in the section "What does it all mean for our winter?" they start talking about ENSO state. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Best part of that site are the graphs, this one depicts daily snow on average, of course some dates are skewered by big storms but pretty much agrees with my experience. Best chances for big storms, first week of Dec, end of December and first weeks in February and March. This graph does not include last year's 28 in Feb 8- 9

Love me some o4-05 action in there.  117.4" of snow at Middleboro COOP

[ORH_wxman]

ENSO is a very good tool for figuring out the CONUS pattern...even though in New England it has a very low correlation to snowfall.

[Ginx snewx]

Well doing some Nov big snows over 6 inches research for my area since 1974 yields 6 winters, 80/81, 86/87, 87/88, 95/96, 02/03, 04/05. 80/81 was the below normal winter, 87/88 normal, the rest blockbusters, 4/6, rooting hard for a blockbuster in this new climo norm period.

[ORH_wxman]

Well doing some Nov big snows over 6 inches research for my area since 1974 yields 6 winters, 80/81, 86/87, 87/88, 95/96, 02/03, 04/05. 80/81 was the below normal winter, 87/88 normal, the rest blockbusters, 4/6, rooting hard for a blockbuster in this new climo norm period.

 

 

You didn't crack 6 inches on Thanksgiving 1989?

[powderfreak]

ENSO is a very good tool for figuring out the CONUS pattern...even though in New England it has a very low correlation to snowfall.

See I didn't know that...I thought by how a lot of the times we talk on here that it must matter in terms of snowfall. I'm not a long range guy...obviously you all know I love meso-scale and day to day weather, but never pay overly close attention to the long range stuff.

I thought SNE folks are always wishing for a weak Niño because it brings the snow. I didn't know the correlation in New England was *that* low.

[powderfreak]

rooting hard for a blockbuster in this new climo norm period.

?

[ORH_wxman]

See I didn't know that...I thought by how a lot of the times we talk on here that it must matter in terms of snowfall. I'm not a long range guy...obviously you all know I love meso-scale and day to day weather, but never pay overly close attention to the long range stuff.

I thought SNE folks are always wishing for a weak Niño because it brings the snow. I didn't know the correlation in New England was *that* low.

 

 

Weak Nino is the sweetspot for snow in SNE...but ENSO as a whole is low correlation. Some of our worst seasons have come in moderate El Ninos and moderate La Ninas while some our best seasons have also been in that range. Neutral ENSO has produced a ridiculous range of extremes too. The further south you go in SNE does tend to lean more toward El Nino for good winters...but a majority of the region really doesn't have a big skew.

 

ENSO matters too for the distribution of snowfall...La Nina tends to favor a more front loaded winter while El Nino is the opposite. It doesn't always work out like that but those are how the odds say to bet them.

[ORH_wxman]

?

 

 

The new regime...where March is nothing but torches and no longer snowy and October has KU events.

[Isotherm]

I would think snowy winters in the Southeast US are generally almost all El Nino years, in the Mid-atlantic mostly El Nino years, and once to NYC's latitude a tendency toward El Nino. You really need the active STJ for locations south of PHL especially. Weak El Nino's often have many Miller B redevelopers which is partially why Long Island into SNE hit the jackpot in the 2003-2005 time frame.

[powderfreak]

The new regime...where March is nothing but torches and no longer snowy and October has KU events.

 

Haha, I wasn't sure if it was serious or sarcastic... the new regime or is it tied to AGW

[powderfreak]

Weak Nino is the sweetspot for snow in SNE...but ENSO as a whole is low correlation. Some of our worst seasons have come in moderate El Ninos and moderate La Ninas while some our best seasons have also been in that range. Neutral ENSO has produced a ridiculous range of extremes too. The further south you go in SNE does tend to lean more toward El Nino for good winters...but a majority of the region really doesn't have a big skew.

 

ENSO matters too for the distribution of snowfall...La Nina tends to favor a more front loaded winter while El Nino is the opposite. It doesn't always work out like that but those are how the odds say to bet them.

 

Good info... same with Isotherm.  Thanks.  Sounds very similar to up here and the weak Nina being a subtle sweet spot in the Mansfield COOP data...but looking at the graph, you really can't tell to the naked eye one way or another.

 

The STJ makes sense synoptically in delivering snows to the southeast into the mid-Atlantic.

[easternsnowman]

Euro last week had temps in the upper 70's later this week.Temps will be in the upper 50's at best.And that is just a week away and some here are taking a 3 month forecast to heart

I'm sure it will change I believe it had a different look a little while ago.

[Isotherm]

The perfect pattern for NNE IMO is a tendency for Nina like patterns, as they generally do better with active northern stream seasons. There's probably an inverse correlation between snowiest winters in the DCA-BOS corridor and Burlington-Stowe region. Seems like there's rarely a year where NNE gets pounded in addition to SNE/NYC/NJ or vice verse. Makes sense because the mean storm track for a big NNE winter should be along or to the NW of the I-95 corridor, and the patterns that tend to produce those are Nina-ish. Also for NNE, I think you'd want an AO / NAO that's not far from neutral, with some room on both the positive and negative side (a lot of variance). Snowy winters in the Great Lakes / Mid-west I'd assume are also generally good in NNE, especially far NNE, when you've got a trough in the central US w/ the SW-NE baroclinic zone up through the Northeast. A major +NAO or -NAO is no good for interior Northeast folks.

[Ginx snewx]

You didn't crack 6 inches on Thanksgiving 1989?

oops yea ended up with 60, above average

[Ginx snewx]

?

71/2013

[Ginx snewx]

Haha, I wasn't sure if it was serious or sarcastic... the new regime or is it tied to AGW

well it was serious, new climo stats are used from 1970

[powderfreak]

Well doing some Nov big snows over 6 inches research for my area since 1974 yields 6 winters, 80/81, 86/87, 87/88, 95/96, 02/03, 04/05. 80/81 was the below normal winter, 87/88 normal, the rest blockbusters, 4/6, rooting hard for a blockbuster in this new climo norm period.

 

Our last big November snow was the day before Thanksgiving in 2011.... the rest of the winter pretty much sucked, lol. 

 

GEFS 72 hours out...

 

 

Reality...classic marginal easterly flow event with downsloping along the western slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks causing rain, while the upslope sides stayed heavy snow.

 

 

 

We ended up with 11" in town and 12-14" up on the mountain... there was another 3-6" after this map was produced in northern VT.

 

East slope is where its at for synoptic systems... west slope is where its at for meso-scale upslope.  Looks similar to what Mitch always describes down in the Berkshires and why those east slopes get crushed.

 

[powderfreak]

well it was serious, new climo stats are used from 1970

 

Ahh, makes sense.  I thought you were talking about the new global warming period or something, lol.

[Ginx snewx]

In answer to your previous question PF, -EPO state has the best correlation to cold and lower heights in NE.

[powderfreak]

The perfect pattern for NNE IMO is a tendency for Nina like patterns, as they generally do better with active northern stream seasons. There's probably an inverse correlation between snowiest winters in the DCA-BOS corridor and Burlington-Stowe region. Seems like there's rarely a year where NNE gets pounded in addition to SNE/NYC/NJ or vice verse. Makes sense because the mean storm track for a big NNE winter should be along or to the NW of the I-95 corridor, and the patterns that tend to produce those are Nina-ish. Also for NNE, I think you'd want an AO / NAO that's not far from neutral, with some room on both the positive and negative side (a lot of variance). Snowy winters in the Great Lakes / Mid-west I'd assume are also generally good in NNE, especially far NNE, when you've got a trough in the central US w/ the SW-NE baroclinic zone up through the Northeast. A major +NAO or -NAO is no good for interior Northeast folks.

 

That's exactly right...hit the nail on the head for climo up here. 

 

We want a trough axis further west up here than places to the south and east do.  So like ideally, probably like eastern Great Lakes centered upper trough with high pressures building into the Lakes, with an arm stretching east across southern Quebec.  It also goes with what started the discussion, that info about NAO and Mansfield snowfall...that neutral NAO (not too far positive or negative) works out best.

 

Speaking of that SW-NE baroclinic zone... we usually do best in patterns that favor the deeper interior NWS offices like CTP, BGM, ALB.  It makes sense... I-95 wants the axis further east, the interior spots from C.PA up through upstate NY and into NNE want it in another axis.

[dryslot]

The perfect pattern for NNE IMO is a tendency for Nina like patterns, as they generally do better with active northern stream seasons. There's probably an inverse correlation between snowiest winters in the DCA-BOS corridor and Burlington-Stowe region. Seems like there's rarely a year where NNE gets pounded in addition to SNE/NYC/NJ or vice verse. Makes sense because the mean storm track for a big NNE winter should be along or to the NW of the I-95 corridor, and the patterns that tend to produce those are Nina-ish. Also for NNE, I think you'd want an AO / NAO that's not far from neutral, with some room on both the positive and negative side (a lot of variance). Snowy winters in the Great Lakes / Mid-west I'd assume are also generally good in NNE, especially far NNE, when you've got a trough in the central US w/ the SW-NE baroclinic zone up through the Northeast. A major +NAO or -NAO is no good for interior Northeast folks.

 

As we realized here in 09-10 with a -NAO on roids

[dryslot]

That's exactly right...hit the nail on the head for climo up here. 

 

We want a trough axis further west up here than places to the south and east do.  So like ideally, probably like eastern Great Lakes centered upper trough with high pressures building into the Lakes, with an arm stretching east across southern Quebec.  It also goes with what started the discussion, that info about NAO and Mansfield snowfall...that neutral NAO (not too far positive or negative) works out best.

 

Speaking of that SW-NE baroclinic zone... we usually do best in patterns that favor the deeper interior NWS offices like CTP, BGM, ALB.  It makes sense... I-95 wants the axis further east, the interior spots from C.PA up through upstate NY and into NNE want it in another axis.

 

This is the reasons for here that its not totally imperative that we need a neggy nao as we can still see snow on either side as long as were not talking extremes

[CoastalWx]

I want Novie snow. Climo is tough here and literally exponentially tougher with every mile you go SE. My new area did ok in 2002 and 2004.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's a list of top 15 snowiest winters for some select locations in New England (I took out 4 pre-1919-1920 seasons for BOS that would have ranked in the top 15 because BTV and PWM didn't have records back that far...so essentially this is a "since 1919-1920" list):

 

 

Rank.......BOS..............ORH..................BTV................PWM

 

1........1995-1996.....1995-1996.......1970-1971......1970-1971

2........1993-1994.....1992-1993.......2010-2011....1995-1996

3.........1947-1948......2002-2003........2000-2001......1944-1945

4.........2004-2005.....2004-2005.......2007-2008......1955-1956

5.........1977-1978.....2012-2013.......1992-1993......1992-1993

6.........1992-1993.....1960-1961.......1965-1966......1968-1969

7........2010-2011.....2000-2001.......1971-1972......1966-1967

8.........2002-2003.....1993-1994.......1993-1994......1951-1952

9.........1919-1920.....1971-1972........1969-1970.......2007-2008

10.......1922-1923.....1947-1948.......1977-1978........2004-2005

11.......2008-2009.....1957-1958.......1995-1996......2000-2001

12.......2012-2013.....1966-1967.......1946-1947......1976-1977

13.......1963-1964.....1986-1987.......2009-2010.......2012-2013

14.......1933-1934.....2010-2011.......1968-1969......1956-1957

15.......1981-1982.....1922-1923.......1973-1974.......1921-1922

 

 

Years in bolded black are common amongst all 4 stations....years in blue are common amongst 3 out of 4 stations. 1977-1978 narrowly misses for getting blue label (ORH ranked 18th that year) and so does 1971-1972 (PWM ranked 16th that year)

 

 

 

[dryslot]

Here's a list of top 15 snowiest winters for some select locations in New England (I took out 4 pre-1919-1920 seasons for BOS that would have ranked in the top 15 because BTV and PWM didn't have records back that far...so essentially this is a "since 1919-1920" list):

 

 

Rank.......BOS..............ORH..................BTV................PWM

 

1.........1995-1996.....1995-1996.......1970-1971......1970-1971

2.........1993-1994.....1992-1993.......2010-2011......1995-1996

3.........1947-1948.....2002-2003.......2000-2001......1944-1945

4.........2004-2005.....2004-2005.......2007-2008......1955-1956

5.........1977-1978.....2012-2013.......1992-1993......1992-1993

6.........1992-1993.....1960-1961.......1965-1966......1968-1969

7.........2010-2011.....2000-2001.......1971-1972......1966-1967

8.........2002-2003.....1993-1994.......1993-1994......1951-1952

9.........1919-1920.....1971-1972.......1969-1970......2007-2008

10.......1922-1923.....1947-1948.......1977-1978......2004-2005

11.......2008-2009.....1957-1958.......1995-1996......2000-2001

12.......2012-2013.....1966-1967.......1946-1947......1976-1977

13.......1963-1964.....1986-1987.......2009-2010......2012-2013

14.......1933-1934.....2010-2011.......1968-1969......1956-1957

15.......1981-1982.....1922-1923.......1973-1974......1921-1922

 

 

Years in bolded black are common amongst all 4 stations....years in blue are common amongst 3 out of 4 stations. 1977-1978 narrowly misses for getting blue label (ORH ranked 18th that year) and so does 1971-1972 (PWM ranked 16th that year)

 

I would match up pretty well with PWM and slightly better in most case being another 20 or so miles further NNW away from the coast

[uncle W]

1970-71 was a brutally cold winter from 12/22/70 to 2/4/71....In NYC we had enough sleet and snow on the 22-23rd to have a borderline white Christmas...A 6-7" snowstorm on January 1st...It was washed away a few days later by an inland runner with heavy rain and mild temps...minor events after that...There were three or four major storms that brought heavy rain to NYC mixed with snow at times in February and March...Boston recieved most of their 57" of snow in December and January...NYC got most of it's 15.5" in Dec/Jan also...

[Damage In Tolland]

I wonder if we'll see something like this again this year?

[powderfreak]

Here's a list of top 15 snowiest winters for some select locations in New England (I took out 4 pre-1919-1920 seasons for BOS that would have ranked in the top 15 because BTV and PWM didn't have records back that far...so essentially this is a "since 1919-1920" list):

 

 

Rank.......BOS..............ORH..................BTV................PWM

 

1........1995-1996.....1995-1996.......1970-1971......1970-1971

2........1993-1994.....1992-1993.......2010-2011....1995-1996

3.........1947-1948......2002-2003........2000-2001......1944-1945

4.........2004-2005.....2004-2005.......2007-2008......1955-1956

5.........1977-1978.....2012-2013.......1992-1993......1992-1993

6.........1992-1993.....1960-1961.......1965-1966......1968-1969

7........2010-2011.....2000-2001.......1971-1972......1966-1967

8.........2002-2003.....1993-1994.......1993-1994......1951-1952

9.........1919-1920.....1971-1972........1969-1970.......2007-2008

10.......1922-1923.....1947-1948.......1977-1978........2004-2005

11.......2008-2009.....1957-1958.......1995-1996......2000-2001

12.......2012-2013.....1966-1967.......1946-1947......1976-1977

13.......1963-1964.....1986-1987.......2009-2010.......2012-2013

14.......1933-1934.....2010-2011.......1968-1969......1956-1957

15.......1981-1982.....1922-1923.......1973-1974.......1921-1922

 

 

Years in bolded black are common amongst all 4 stations....years in blue are common amongst 3 out of 4 stations. 1977-1978 narrowly misses for getting blue label (ORH ranked 18th that year) and so does 1971-1972 (PWM ranked 16th that year)

 

Great list, Will.  Man have we all been lucky lately.  There's a lot of years on there that start with "20--" ... goes along with the idea that snowfall averages have been up since the new century started.  I know BTV had its snowiest decade in history (as an average annual snowfall) from 2000-2010.

 

Also, regarding the top line in your post... here's BTV's data back to 1906 on their website.  They have a period of record back to 1882 but I'm not sure where to find those 30 years of snowfall data is:

 

http://www.weather.gov/btv/climo_snowfall