The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[Ginx snewx]

Miller B 70/71 look

[powderfreak]

East based -NAO it looks like....but decent -EPO and neutralish PNA. However, it has a SE ridge. The pattern is pretty good for Lakes to New England and probably a toaster bath for the M.A.

 

I noticed last month that the Euro SIPS had less of a SE ridge than the Euro...so we'll see if it stays that way when the SIP comes out later this month.

 

Yeah, that's a pattern that we would need the -NAO... without that we'd be getting cutters with a SE ridge. 

 

I like the sounds of that though...the deeper interior Northeast is sort of "due" for a good winter relative to average (though I don't like using that to base forecasts off of)... but like CTP/BGM/ALB areas.  We aren't really due up here, as 2010-2011 was pretty awesome up here, but that area southwest of BTV's warning area and west of BOX's, has really gotten screwed lately.

[CoastalWx]

Any verification stats on Euro monthly forecasts from this range in previous winters?

 

I would wait until late November before making any judgments.

 

I think they have stats buried in the site so I would have to look. But, Will is right with his obs over the last few years.

[CoastalWx]

Question,what science goes into this?.I could understand maybe considering the weekly's semi accurate although they have been wrong too.To say it's going to be this pattern in 3 months,is quite a reach by any computer forecast

 

Well it's a combo of several different things including a model that is coupled with the ocean. That's a big thing to have for a seasonal model because as SST's change...so will the model solutions. Otherwise it's an ensemble and likely some proprietary stuff from the ECMWF guys. I know the SIPS model does incorporate the CFS.

[ORH_wxman]

Question,what science goes into this?.I could understand maybe considering the weekly's semi accurate although they have been wrong too.To say it's going to be this pattern in 3 months,is quite a reach by any computer forecast

 

Its not really a point forecast for 3 months from now...its a mean pattern forecast. Its more accurate once we get to October/November because ENSO is known by that point.,,and ENSO is one of the largest drivers of the N.A. winter pattern with a 2-3 month lag. There's probabilistic ranges on the model too...so looking solely at the mean pattern doesn't mean its going to work out that way.

 

In certain areas the confidence in the model is much higher...I.E. a ridge over the Canadian west in a strong El Nino has high confidence while the heights over the central U.S. have low confidence.

 

The model looks pretty robust with a -EPO...so that is good news. The NAO region (particularly western) is not very robust at all in the model so there's likely a lot of spread in corresponing heights over the eastern US. Its more confident in east based -NAO than anything.

[Ginx snewx]

I believe the stats were shown in this thread , - EPO equals decent to great winter a lot more than not.

[CoastalWx]

Will is right, the way it displays the data gives you higher or lower confidence in some features. It just doesn't display a ridge with corresponding height values, it displays anomalies. On top of that, there is an area contoured at the 1% signficance level. This means that there is a 1% chance the solution comes up as random. What it means is that there is a reason why the solution contoured within this area came up as it did...so it's a higher confidence area or lower margin of error. This includes the ridge into AK and Gulf coast/SE ridge. Now it does not mean the solution is right....but it gives more confidence to a seasonal forecaster.

[Isotherm]

Well the -EPO is highly correlated to temperatures across most of the northern / eastern US and a negative version of that index would be a massive change from the past two winters. I don't have the euro monthlies but an east based -NAO / -EPO seems like a pattern that would deliver major cold into the central US, spread east, with resistance on the east coast.

 

If the -EPO verifies, I think most (I definitely would) be willing to take my chances w/ that as opposed to a +EPO. A west based -NAO is definitely helpful but sometimes other indices can compensate depending upon the magnitude of them.

[toronto blizzard]

It Seems like the euro seasonal is forecasting 92-93 type pattern

 

EDIT: I meant 93-94 pattern

[dryslot]

Miller B 70/71 look

 

You can sign me up for that right now, #1 all time here, 144"

[uncle W]

like NYC if Boston has a mild December snowfall totals average 11" less than normal...NYC averages 9-10" less with a mild December...I couldn't find monthly and average temperature for Boston after 2001...From 2011 to 2012 I used f6's...Like here you better hope for a none top warmest December...it looks like 1996-97 with the April Fools storm had an above average season...1891-92, 1928-29 and 1957-58 had slightly above average snowfall...The other eleven had below normal totals...For NYC I used almost 30 years...Boston has 15 years...I would have used more years if I had average December temperature for all the years since 1891...

year...Dec temp...snowfall...

1891.........40.5........46.8"

1911.........39.4........31.6"

1912.........38.5........19.4"

1923.........40.4........32.3"

1928.........38.5........45.5"

1953.........40.1........23.6"

1957.........40.0........44.7"

1973.........39.5........36.9"

1982.........39.5........32.7"

1984.........39.5........26.6"

1990.........40.7........19.1"

1996.........39.2........51.9"

1999.........39.1........24.9"

2001.........40.5........15.1"

2011.........40.0..........9.3"

average....................32.7"

 

[Ginx snewx]

like NYC if Boston has a mild December snowfall totals average 11" less than normal...NYC averages 9-10" less with a mild December...I couldn't find monthly and average temperature for Boston after 2001...From 2011 to 2012 I used f6's...Like here you better hope for a none top warmest December...it looks like 1996-97 with the April Fools storm had an above average season...1891-92, 1928-29 and 1957-58 had slightly above average snowfall...The other eleven had below normal totals...For NYC I used almost 30 years...Boston has 15 years...I would have used more years if I had average December temperature for all the years since 1891...

year...Dec temp...snowfall...

1891.........40.5........46.8"

1911.........39.4........31.6"

1912.........38.5........19.4"

1923.........40.4........32.3"

1928.........38.5........45.5"

1953.........40.1........23.6"

1957.........40.0........44.7"

1973.........39.5........36.9"

1982.........39.5........32.7"

1984.........39.5........26.6"

1990.........40.7........19.1"

1996.........39.2........51.9"

1999.........39.1........24.9"

2001.........40.5........15.1"

2011.........40.0..........9.3"

average....................32.7"

2008-2011 are on the climate site for Box, f-6 none were warm

[uncle W]

2008-2011 are on the climate site for Box, f-6 none were warm

2006 probably was mild and that was a putrid...

[Isotherm]

like NYC if Boston has a mild December snowfall totals average 11" less than normal...NYC averages 9-10" less with a mild December...I couldn't find monthly and average temperature for Boston after 2001...From 2011 to 2012 I used f6's...Like here you better hope for a none top warmest December...it looks like 1996-97 with the April Fools storm had an above average season...1891-92, 1928-29 and 1957-58 had slightly above average snowfall...The other eleven had below normal totals...For NYC I used almost 30 years...Boston has 15 years...I would have used more years if I had average December temperature for all the years since 1891...

year...Dec temp...snowfall...

1891.........40.5........46.8"

1911.........39.4........31.6"

1912.........38.5........19.4"

1923.........40.4........32.3"

1928.........38.5........45.5"

1953.........40.1........23.6"

1957.........40.0........44.7"

1973.........39.5........36.9"

1982.........39.5........32.7"

1984.........39.5........26.6"

1990.........40.7........19.1"

1996.........39.2........51.9"

1999.........39.1........24.9"

2001.........40.5........15.1"

2011.........40.0..........9.3"

average....................32.7"

 

 

Unc, there's another stat snowfall related that says if NYC receives < 3.0" of snow through December 31st, expect a below average snowfall winter most of the time. > 3.0" by the New Year and it's mostly at or above average snow. Logically that would coincide with your temp argument -- the warmer Decembers usually produce very little snowfall. Since December's mean temp is still "relatively" warm compared to January and February, a warmer than normal December is generally more harmful than a warmer than normal Jan or Feb.

[NECT]

like NYC if Boston has a mild December snowfall totals average 11" less than normal

This makes sense, but is no predictor. December is usually good for a bit of snow. Sometimes some good storms, and sometimes, next to nothing in SNE. So on average, if December sucks for snowfall, the winter will be a little below average. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for people trying to figure out long term forecasts, but December snowfall doesn't seem to mean anything as far as what will happen in other winter months.

[easternsnowman]

The pattern being talked about would be generally decent to good even for NYC, just south of there would have problems.

[ORH_wxman]

BOS torched in December 2012 and finished with well above average snow.

 

Other warm Decembers that finished above average snow at BOS: 1987, 1971, 1965.....though these 3 weren't as warm as 2012 was.

[KEITH L.I]

It looks like it's saying what others have said if you're north of NYC it looks snowy, south of there a different picture.

Euro last week had temps in the upper 70's later this week.Temps will be in the upper 50's at best.And that is just a week away and some here are taking a 3 month forecast to heart

[uncle W]

BOS torched in December 2012 and finished with well above average snow.

 

Other warm Decembers that finished above average snow at BOS: 1987, 1971, 1965.....though these 3 weren't as warm as 2012 was.

I could have used 2012 at 38.4 but I don't have access to all of Boston's December average temperature...Their local climate data isn't updated...

edit with 2012 and four other warm December years...

2012.....38.4.....63.4"

2006.....41.0.....17.1"

1994.....38.5.....14.9"

1974.....37.7.....27.6"

1932.....38.1.....40.6"

1907.....37.2.....26.2"

average...........31.6" ...last year turned out good with the help of the big blizzard but the average for the six winters is still well below the normal amount...

[ORH_wxman]

I could have used 2012 at 38.4 but I don't have access to all of Boston's December average temperature...Their local climate data isn't updated...

 

 

Try this site

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/summary/ct_ma_riF.html

[uncle W]

Try this site

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/summary/ct_ma_riF.html

great sight...Thank you...

[uncle W]

a quick look at the 23 coldest Decembers has a 50.7" seasonal snowfall average...seven inches above normal...out of the 23 years Boston got,

70"+...two times...73.4 in 1919-20 was the most...

60"+...six times...

50"+...three times...

40"+...eight times...

30"+...three times...

20"+...one time...22.3" in 1980-81 was the least...

 

[Ginx snewx]

Try this site

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/summary/ct_ma_riF.html

love that site. I had lost the 04/05 snow totals, was near 100, NFoster was 100 probably 85-90 here.

[Ginx snewx]

Best part of that site are the graphs, this one depicts daily snow on average, of course some dates are skewered by big storms but pretty much agrees with my experience. Best chances for big storms, first week of Dec, end of December and first weeks in February and March. This graph does not include last year's 28 in Feb 8- 9

[powderfreak]

Awesome write-up by the guys at FIS in regards to a winter outlook...these guys post occasionally on here as well.  I agree with pretty much all of it and its all based on the caveat that the Mansfield Coop snowfall data is suspect (vastly under-reported most years due to collection issues)...but it is what is there and the period of record is significant.

 

They did a pretty thorough reanalysis of ENSO state and Mansfield snowfall data and frequency of snowfalls.  Of course the whole thing is based on Mount Mansfield (the center of our universe up here), but I think some of you will find it interesting so here's the link and I'll copy some of the summary below:

 

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/2013-2014-northeast-winter-outlook/

 

"

So what does this tell us?

 

First it seems that there isn’t a direct correlation between the ENSO state and either the total snowfall on Mt. Mansfield or the frequency of snowfall. That alone is a fairly significant conclusion (albeit one that would need more research to conclude with authority). Just about every winter-outlook you read relies on the ENSO state…what our data shows is that the ENSO state may be afforded too much credit.

There does however seem to be some “sweet-spot” towards a weak La Nina. It looks like if a borderline La Nina develops, the probability of favorable snow conditions in Vermont increases.

 

However, there doesn’t seem to be a correlation for other ENSO states. What we are likely seeing is some third variable at play. Something we haven’t figured out yet; something no one has figured out yet.

 

Second, the NAO state doesn’t need to be very negative to produce active winters or deep winters. Many people are trained with the mindset that big negative NAO anomalies mean big winters. That may be true in Boston or New York, but it doesn’t seem to be true for Mansfield. However, our data shows that’s not true. Middle of the road NAO values are fine."

[Ginx snewx]

a quick look at the 23 coldest Decembers has a 50.7" seasonal snowfall average...seven inches above normal...out of the 23 years Boston got,

70"+...two times...73.4 in 1919-20 was the most...

60"+...six times...

50"+...three times...

40"+...eight times...

30"+...three times...

20"+...one time...22.3" in 1980-81 was the least...

1989?

[uncle W]

1989?

39.2"

[Ginx snewx]

Awesome write-up by the guys at FIS in regards to a winter outlook...these guys post occasionally on here as well. I agree with pretty much all of it and its all based on the caveat that the Mansfield Coop snowfall data is suspect (vastly under-reported most years due to collection issues)...but it is what is there and the period of record is significant.

They did a pretty thorough reanalysis of ENSO state and Mansfield snowfall data and frequency of snowfalls. Of course the whole thing is based on Mount Mansfield (the center of our universe up here), but I think some of you will find it interesting so here's the link and I'll copy some of the summary below:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/2013-2014-northeast-winter-outlook/

"

So what does this tell us?

First it seems that there isn’t a direct correlation between the ENSO state and either the total snowfall on Mt. Mansfield or the frequency of snowfall. That alone is a fairly significant conclusion (albeit one that would need more research to conclude with authority). Just about every winter-outlook you read relies on the ENSO state…what our data shows is that the ENSO state may be afforded too much credit.

There does however seem to be some “sweet-spot” towards a weak La Nina. It looks like if a borderline La Nina develops, the probability of favorable snow conditions in Vermont increases.

However, there doesn’t seem to be a correlation for other ENSO states. What we are likely seeing is some third variable at play. Something we haven’t figured out yet; something no one has figured out yet.

Second, the NAO state doesn’t need to be very negative to produce active winters or deep winters. Many people are trained with the mindset that big negative NAO anomalies mean big winters. That may be true in Boston or New York, but it doesn’t seem to be true for Mansfield. However, our data shows that’s not true. Middle of the road NAO values are fine."

write to them and have them do a EPO state correlation, we have known for years that ENSO means little north of NYC

[powderfreak]

write to them and have them do a EPO state correlation, we have known for years that ENSO means little north of NYC

 

Would be a good addition... in general though, as I usually seem to put myself in the mindset each winter, we seem to have good chances of an average winter.  But then again, we don't have the variability from year to year as places further south like NYC's latitude...so expecting an average year is usually a good spot to start. 

 

Weak La Nina does seem to be the mini-sweet spot up here though for ENSO state... our recent big winters 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 were both Nina, too.

[Ginx snewx]

I wrote to them and told them do a EPO state correlation