The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[KEITH L.I]

Wtf...I wrote something and it disappeared. Trying again. Unc, I'm sure you remember how warm it was up to a few days before the December 11-12 blizzard. I was despondent but ecstasy ultimately rules that winter.

So funny back in the early 60's the forecast might go out for a day or 2,so you had no idea that when temps were in the 60's that a week later there would be a big change.Sometimes not knowing is more fun!

[Ginx snewx]

And their snowiest months were March and April. The COOP reached that 62" on 4/14, but on 3/8 - just before the first large snowfall in 2 months - they had only 12", and had seen only 15 days (Jan 1-5) with more than 25". Their Feb snowfall totalled 7.5", about half their 2nd lowest for Feb. I'm guessing that for Feb vacations, Stowe's intermediate and expert terrain (most/all without snowmaking) was mainly boilerplate and ice. Probably those holdouts who skiied Stowe late had great conditions; mid-winter, the Poconos might've been better.

would work for me, my heavy ski season is March to April, mid winter I stay close to home, day trips far as Killington. SVT SNH did well.

[ORH_wxman]

The snow cover explosion is pretty fun to watch in Siberia right now...it looks like the Eurasian side of Siberia will keep expanding rapidly over the next week to 10 days which is what we want to see.

[CoastalWx]

The snow cover explosion is pretty fun to watch in Siberia right now...it looks like the Eurasian side of Siberia will keep expanding rapidly over the next week to 10 days which is what we want to see.

Yeah I just looked at that. Wow, and like you said the Eurasian side is next.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I just looked at that. Wow, and like you said the Eurasian side is next.

 

 

We are way above any recent years sans 2002 (only slightly ahead of that year)...and actually the highest for the past week since 1977 (which was obscene)

[Isotherm]

We are way above any recent years sans 2002 (only slightly ahead of that year)...and actually the highest for the past week since 1977 (which was obscene)

 

 

As impressive as it is, it's difficult for me to get that excited about it w/ the thought of it all going to waste. Need to monitor H5 anomalies from 55N and northward over the next several weeks. I didn't want the -NAO to develop this month, though we'll see it if does, and if so, what happens in November is more important.

 

Hopefully we don't see the SAI decrease mid/late month with most of our gains happening now, though I suspect we'll do well with it this year.

[ORH_wxman]

As impressive as it is, it's difficult for me to get that excited about it w/ the thought of it all going to waste. Need to monitor H5 anomalies from 55N and northward over the next several weeks. I didn't want the -NAO to develop this month, though we'll see it if does, and if so, what happens in November is more important.

 

Hopefully we don't see the SAI decrease mid/late month with most of our gains happening now, though I suspect we'll do well with it this year.

 

I'm not too afraid of a -NAO...we had strong -NAOs in the high snow cover Octobers of 2002, 2009, and 2012 and the arctic pattern was good to great in those years.

 

We actually haven't had the inverse correlation work out since 2008 when we had a slightly positive NAO (SLP method...it was neutral on CPC) in October and the winter then went negative. Every year since then has had the same NAO in the winter as October...could be a fluke, it could be something else. The snowcover looks to have a better r value than the inverse NAO anyway.

[Isotherm]

I'm not too afraid of a -NAO...we had strong -NAOs in the high snow cover Octobers of 2002, 2009, and 2012 and the arctic pattern was good to great in those years.

 

We actually haven't had the inverse correlation work out since 2008 when we had a slightly positive NAO (SLP method...it was neutral on CPC) in October and the winter then went negative. Every year since then has had the same NAO in the winter as October...could be a fluke, it could be something else. The snowcover looks to have a better r value than the inverse NAO anyway.

 

 

Yeah recent years have seen the Oct inverse correlation break down and I'm wondering if it has something to do w/ the very weak solar activity. Low geomagnetic activity is fairly strongly correlated to -NAO development and persistence so that's probably (partially) the reason for such a dominant -NAO overall since 2008. We had the +NAO 2011-12 but even last winter was very close to a neutral NAO, coupled with a -AO (hard to believe given the horrendous results for our area at least).

[mitchnick]

aren't the new Euro monthlies due out pretty soon (October's I am referring to)?

[Isotherm]

Yeah recent years have seen the Oct inverse correlation break down and I'm wondering if it has something to do w/ the very weak solar activity. Low geomagnetic activity is fairly strongly correlated to -NAO development and persistence so that's probably (partially) the reason for such a dominant -NAO overall since 2008. We had the +NAO 2011-12 but even last winter was very close to a neutral NAO, coupled with a -AO (hard to believe given the horrendous results for our area at least).

 

 

Speaking of which, solar parameters look great right now w/ lower SSN's and very low geomag after the recent spike.

[JoMo]

aren't the new Euro monthlies due out pretty soon (October's I am referring to)?

 

yeah they are out already. 

 

Brett Anderson from Accuweather says... they show neutral ENSO conditions, an early winter strong NE Pacific/Gulf of Alaska ridge, and a central trough for January.

[Snow_Miser]

yeah they are out already. 

 

Brett Anderson from Accuweather says... they show neutral ENSO conditions, an early winter strong NE Pacific/Gulf of Alaska ridge, and a central trough for January.

 

That doesn't sound bad. Any signs of a -NAO/-AO?

[JoMo]

That doesn't sound bad. Any signs of a -NAO/-AO?

 

I have no idea, I just found that info on his twitter account:

https://twitter.com/BrettAWX

 

If he does like usual, he'll probably post a blog today or tomorrow about it. 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/

[ORH_wxman]

That doesn't sound bad. Any signs of a -NAO/-AO?

 

 

East based -NAO it looks like....but decent -EPO and neutralish PNA. However, it has a SE ridge. The pattern is pretty good for Lakes to New England and probably a toaster bath for the M.A.

 

I noticed last month that the Euro SIPS had less of a SE ridge than the Euro...so we'll see if it stays that way when the SIP comes out later this month.

[jm1220]

That doesn't sound bad. Any signs of a -NAO/-AO?

A central trough could mean tons of lake cutters without a mechanism to force redevelopment. That would set up a gradient/latitude pattern that would favor I-90 much more than my area, for instance.

[CoastalWx]

East based -NAO it looks like....but decent -EPO and neutralish PNA. However, it has a SE ridge. The pattern is pretty good for Lakes to New England and probably a toaster bath for the M.A.

 

I noticed last month that the Euro SIPS had less of a SE ridge than the Euro...so we'll see if it stays that way when the SIP comes out later this month.

 

That's been the MO for a while with SIPS. Might be due to it incorporating the CFS, but in any case...it's usually more skillful. We'll know 1 week from now.

 

That seasonal forecast definitely looked tasty here.

[mitchnick]

East based -NAO it looks like....but decent -EPO and neutralish PNA. However, it has a SE ridge. The pattern is pretty good for Lakes to New England and probably a toaster bath for the M.A.

 

I noticed last month that the Euro SIPS had less of a SE ridge than the Euro...so we'll see if it stays that way when the SIP comes out later this month.

hmmmmm, where I have seen that before?

oh yeah, throughout my entire life

[CoastalWx]

hmmmmm, where I have seen that before?

oh yeah, throughout my entire life

 

I would wait a week until the other set comes out.

[mitchnick]

I would wait a week until the other set comes out.

well, I'm going with Jerry's standby....the squirrels

I have never seen them so active and everybody in my neighborhood has commented to me about how the squirrels are going nuts, so it's not just me seeing things

plus, they really are fattening but that may or may not be because I just happen to be noticing them more this year b/c of their frantic nut collecting

[dryslot]

If only..........

[easternsnowman]

It looks like it's saying what others have said if you're north of NYC it looks snowy, south of there a different picture.

[OceanStWx]

hmmmmm, where I have seen that before?

oh yeah, throughout my entire life

 

Don't fret, Accuweather says a wintry appeal for BWI on 11/21. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/baltimore-md/21202/daily-weather-forecast/348707?day=45

[mitchnick]

Don't fret, Accuweather says a wintry appeal for BWI on 11/21. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/baltimore-md/21202/daily-weather-forecast/348707?day=45

I think the "1 Strange Tip for White Teeth" at the bottom, right of the page has a better chance of verifying.

[Isotherm]

I would wait a week until the other set comes out.

 

 

Any verification stats on Euro monthly forecasts from this range in previous winters?

 

I would wait until late November before making any judgments.

[Isotherm]

It looks like it's saying what others have said if you're north of NYC it looks snowy, south of there a different picture.

 

 

That's a pretty safe call most years. The sun will rise in the east and set in the west.

[ORH_wxman]

Any verification stats on Euro monthly forecasts from this range in previous winters?

 

I would wait until late November before making any judgments.

 

 

I don't have the stats, but anecdotelly, it starts getting at least a clue around now. I recall in 2010 it started switching from a torch to much colder around this time, though it still was not nearly cold enough...likely because it could not predict the extreme NAO blocking we had in the first half of the winter. In 2011, it was baking us, and last year it was semi-mild.

[toronto blizzard]

I don't have the stats, but anecdotelly, it starts getting at least a clue around now. I recall in 2010 it started switching from a torch to much colder around this time, though it still was not nearly cold enough...likely because it could not predict the extreme NAO blocking we had in the first half of the winter. In 2011, it was baking us, and last year it was semi-mild.

Are they semi-mild this run?

[easternsnowman]

That's a pretty safe call most years. The sun will rise in the east and set in the west.

That was the case last year, of course I meant relative to average where I think NYC area gets close to average and above average north of there.may also happen this year if I were to guess, but things can change.

[KEITH L.I]

I don't have the stats, but anecdotelly, it starts getting at least a clue around now. I recall in 2010 it started switching from a torch to much colder around this time, though it still was not nearly cold enough...likely because it could not predict the extreme NAO blocking we had in the first half of the winter. In 2011, it was baking us, and last year it was semi-mild.

Question,what science goes into this?.I could understand maybe considering the weekly's semi accurate although they have been wrong too.To say it's going to be this pattern in 3 months,is quite a reach by any computer forecast

[powderfreak]

A central trough could mean tons of lake cutters without a mechanism to force redevelopment. That would set up a gradient/latitude pattern that would favor I-90 much more than my area, for instance.

 

Yeah if the trough axis is a little west over the Lakes area, that can mean mixed events even up here in NNE... but the good side is that we aren't watching all the storms exit off the Delmarva.