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The early speculation on winter 2013-14

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Sharpest turn around in sea ice of the 8 years covered...(there is still one more week's worth to be added to this year's curve)  

 

The "nature" of change in a system is always more telling than the change its self.  Seeing that happen as below is an acceleration over other recent years.  

 

This only adds to my belief that a severe winter is en route.  There are several factors; this being just one of them. But the nature of the seasonal recovery is about as abrupt an onset as can happen. It is both graphically impressive, and impressive in the animations that are based upon real-time satellite observations.  It tells us that quite plausibly there are back-ground kinematics at work that are supporting an explosive generation of cold.  

 

One possible reason for that may be the weaker than normal solar (speculation).  However, recently it has been noted that the on-going maximum has unexpectedly termed approximately 9 months to a year ahead of schedule, leaving the visible disk of the sun nearly barren entirely of spot activity.  Of all the climate zones on the planet the Arctic is the most sensitive to change, with comparatively smaller thresholds.  Less ice loss this summer, combined with lower solar, might just assist in cold feed-back.  Whatever the cause, ice recovery is a phenomenon onto its self this particular autumn. I almost visualize the final analysis for this year to have that black line above all the others in the set. 

 

ims_data.jpg

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Sharpest turn around in sea ice of the 8 years covered...(there is still one more week's worth to be added to this year's curve)  

 

The "nature" of change in a system is always more telling than the change its self.  Seeing that happen as below is an acceleration over other recent years.  

 

This only adds to my belief that a severe winter is en route.  There are several factors; this being just one of them. But the nature of the seasonal recovery is about as abrupt an onset as can happen. It is both graphically impressive, and impressive in the animations that are based upon real-time satellite observations.  It tells us that quite plausibly there are back-ground kinematics at work that are supporting an explosive generation of cold.  

 

One possible reason for that may be the weaker than normal solar (speculation).  However, recently it has been noted that the on-going maximum has unexpectedly termed approximately 9 months to a year ahead of schedule, leaving the visible disk of the sun nearly barren entirely of spot activity.  Of all the climate zones on the planet the Arctic is the most sensitive to change, with comparatively smaller thresholds.  Less ice loss this summer, combined with lower solar, might just assist in cold feed-back.  Whatever the cause, ice recovery is a phenomenon onto its self this particular autumn. I almost visualize the final analysis for this year to have that black line above all the others in the set. 

 

ims_data.jpg

 

not all seem to agree with you

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41113-and-we-begin/?p=2420305

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

 

I put a lot of "maybe", "mights" and "speculation" in there, though, as the idea about acceleration is hypothetical at best.   

 

Having said that, I disagree that it means nothing.   if the ice over is taking place at an accelerated rate, it means it is colder than normal, or in the least that there are factors pointing in that direction. Period ... that's just not logically arguable.  

 

Now ... whether that parlays into a cold winter for middle latitudes, yeah, I agree, that correlation is still in question.  However, there have been papers published that suggest/show that leading snow and sea-ice abundance in October, has a negative correlation to the AO during DJF.   Because of that, and the former reason I am inclined to side with it meaning something.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The 10 warmest Octobers in SNE since 1950 produced the following winter pattern composite:

 

 

cd205_181_240_195_272_9_30_37_prcp.png

 

 

 

 

 

The following 10 coldest Octobers in SNE since 1950 produced this winter composite:

 

 

cd205_181_240_195_272_9_55_55_prcp.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So this confirms visually what the stats showed anyway. There's a very mild preference for cold Octobers in SNE for getting a cold winter, but the difference is negligible. If you are in the southern U.S and like cold, you are rooting for a cold SNE October.

 

 

On the flip side, the cold October composite has more dead ratter snow years than the warm one.

 

 

Snowfall averages for warm Octobers:

 

BOS: 50.6" (median: 49.8")

ORH: 72.9" (median: 72.9")

 

 

Snowfall averages for cold Octobers:

 

BOS: 46.4" (median: 44.2")

ORH: 69.9" (median: 68.1") 

 

 

 

Perhaps we want to avoid Octobers closer to neutral if we don't want torch winters.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

The 10 warmest Octobers in SNE since 1950 produced the following winter pattern composite:

 

 

cd205_181_240_195_272_9_30_37_prcp.png

 

 

 

 

 

The following 10 coldest Octobers in SNE since 1950 produced this winter composite:

 

 

cd205_181_240_195_272_9_55_55_prcp.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So this confirms visually what the stats showed anyway. There's a very mild preference for cold Octobers in SNE for getting a cold winter, but the difference is negligible. If you are in the southern U.S and like cold, you are rooting for a cold SNE October.

 

 

On the flip side, the cold October composite has more dead ratter snow years than the warm one.

 

 

Snowfall averages for warm Octobers:

 

BOS: 50.6" (median: 49.8")

ORH: 72.9" (median: 72.9")

 

 

Snowfall averages for cold Octobers:

 

BOS: 46.4" (median: 44.2")

ORH: 69.9" (median: 68.1") 

 

 

 

Perhaps we want to avoid Octobers closer to neutral if we don't want torch winters.

NYC's snowiest winters had mixed results for October and November...The two snowiest winters on record 1947-48 and 1995-96 had very warm Octobers...most of the snowiest winters had below average temperatures...

season......Oct......Nov......Dec-Feb...

1946-47...+4.8.....+2.8.....-0.7

1947-48...+6.7......-3.5.....-5.5

1948-49....-0.2.....+4.7....+3.0

1955-56...+2.9......-3.4.....-2.8

1957-58....-0.7.....+1.7.....-2-2

1959-60...+2.9......-1.9....+0.7

1960-61...+1.2.....+2.0.....-3.8

1963-64...+4.9.....+2.7.....-2.2

1966-67....-0.7.....+1.2.....-1.4

1968-69...+3.6......-0.8.....-2.6

1977-78....-2.0......-0.4.....-5.2

1978-79....-2.0.....+0.1.....-2.8

1982-83...+1.6.....+2.7....+2.4

1992-93....-2.4......-1.2....+0.4

1993-94....-0.9.....+1.1.....-4.3

1995-96...+4.7......-4.1.....-3.2

2000-01...+0.1......-2.4.....-2.0

2002-03....-1.7......-1.7.....-4.3

2003-04....-1.8.....+2.3.....-3.1

2004-05....-0.9.....+0.5.....-0.1

2005-06...+1.0.....+1.9....+1.8

2008-09....-1.8......-1.9.....-1.3

2009-10....-1.9.....+3.5.....-1.7

2010-11...+1.2.....+0.2.....-2.8

2012-13...+1.1......-3.8....+1.2

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Nice work Will. The cold October and following winter profile is interesting. It has a mix of ENSO yet the whole country is cold. I know there is a mix of warm and cold in the west alone, but maybe all those years smooths it out and gives us a cold look. What about cold October, Neutral ENSO? It may be that sample size doesn't really help here.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Nice work Will. The cold October and following winter profile is interesting. It has a mix of ENSO yet the whole country is cold. I know there is a mix of warm and cold in the west alone, but maybe all those years smooths it out and gives us a cold look. What about cold October, Neutral ENSO? It may be that sample size doesn't really help here.

 

 

Cold October, neutral enso gives us a colder look but the sample size is ugly..I had to use marginally cold Octobers to get the sample size over 5:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

cd205_181_240_195_272_10_42_41_prcp.png

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Black is cold, brown is warm. Better have your shorts handy, according to that worm. :( Apparently, down this way, there have been quite a few all black or mostly black ones seen already.

I saw another one with the same colors...oh well...hey but the squirrels are fat but that's because I feed them... :P

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Black is cold, brown is warm. Better have your shorts handy, according to that worm. :( Apparently, down this way, there have been quite a few all black or mostly black ones seen already.

 

Of course as we discussed yesterday, the coloring is a better indicator of how late in the previous spring the caterpillar was hatched.

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