The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[tamarack]

1876 and 1917 were colder in Central Park...The talk of December 1970 brings back memories of pre Christmas snow and sleet and a white New Years...A very cold January but warmer the second half of February...no snow in February made it a bummer but north of us did fine...33 and rain was the theme for us in February 1971...

 

Yup, by more than 0.8F each year.  I stand corrected.  I've got a data set dating back thru 1871 from I don't know where - runs a bit milder in winter than KNYC and similar to a bit cooler in summer.  In the same stack there's also the Central Park numbers, so no excuse.

 

Edit:  The local COOP records go back only thru 1893, so nothing for 1876.  However, 12/89 there was coldest by over 4F, and 1958 sneaks into 2nd place:

 

1989....6.23

1958...10.53

1917...10.66

1980...11.76

1904...12.27

for contrast

2006...30.68

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice to read how many pro forecasters are now relying more on predictive states of the N/AO for correlation to New England winters and putting much much less emphasis on ENSO state. AER and Dr Cohen have led the way. Something some of us here have preached for years, correlation values are much higher. Watching the increase rate of Eurasia from now until the end of October closely.

Pisses me off because I was hammering this point 12 f year ago and AER led the way ?

 

pfft.   bull****

[Typhoon Tip]

Until someone shows a robust correlation up in our area for autumn temperatures vs winter temps/snowfall, I am not going to take any real pattern seriously in the autumn.

 

The AO/NAO has a robust inverse relationship in October although it has tended to break down more often in recent years. The advances in October Siberian snow cover's predictive value to wintertime AO has surpassed the older inverse AO/NAO relationship anyways.

 

But even with that, our winter forecasts here are not that easy...we've seen some big ones in a +AO setup. We'd still definitely prefer -AO, but its not a death sentence as much as it is further south.

 

I just did a cursory stat check on 2010-2011, which boasted a pretty impressive polar field crash and intraseasonal snow total.  It was a different year than last year, in the sense that the snow pack stayed longer in between events.  In fact, we managed a 35" on the level here in Ayer, over successive events. 

 

It's one of my complaints about last year, in that yeah it snowed a lot, but why was the ground bare more than 50% of the time.  It's like a cold mid-level winter.  

 

Anyway, not that one year means anything, but HFD, ORH and BOS were all positive temperature, ranging +.5 to around +1.5, and greater than normal precipitation for the month of October, 2010.  Going into November, these number neutralized ...literally, being just barely positive or negative in either category.   

 

Obviously it would be much more telling to have 100 years of this, but who has a 100 hour to do a hundred years of this crap.   

[Ginx snewx]

Pisses me off because I was hammering this point 12 f year ago and AER led the way ?

pfft. bull****

Well Tip you were not the only one, perhaps you should have written a paper and started your own company.

[Ginx snewx]

Just another thing to add to my including 68/69 as a possible analog, last time there was not a major hurricane in the Atlantic Basin was 1968

[CoastalWx]

Will and I weenied about the QBO a bit last night. Definitely some decent winters and then there is '90-'91. I'll reiterate what he thinks in that it isn't everything. However, we'd feel better if the September 30mb value started to drop.

[uncle W]

someone should do a snow depth table for Boston...I did one for BWI and KNYC...You would need a 20" line for Boston...you need daily snow depth and obs to make up a table...

for the record BWI snow depth since 1947-48...

................days..........consecutive...
season.....1"...6"...10"....1"...6"...10"...max depth

1947-48....21...01...00....10...01...00.....6"
1948-49....08...01...00....03...01...00.....6"
1949-50....00...00...00....00...00...00.....trace
1950-51....06...00...00....02...00...00.....2"
1951-52....06...01...00....03...01...00.....6"
1952-53....07...00...00....02...00...00.....3"
1953-54....18...02...00....09...02...00.....6"
1954-55....12...00...00....04...00...00.....2"
1955-56....21...01...00....14...01...00.....6"
1956-57....15...01...00....08...01...00.....6"
1957-58....35...11...05....10...07...05...16"
1958-59....05...00...00....02...00...00.....1"
1959-60....23...08...01....12...04...01...10"

1960-61....52...20...03....30...05...01...13"
1961-62....20...02...01....09...02...01...10"
1962-63....32...00...00....20...00...00.....5"
1963-64....35...08...00....11...02...00.....9"
1964-65....22...00...00....13...00...00.....5"
1965-66....23...11...06....18...10...06...17"
1966-67....28...10...03....08...05...02...10"
1967-68....22...02...00....05...02...00.....8"
1968-69....09...00...00....03...00...00.....3"
1969-70....24...01...00....10...01...00.....6"

1970-71....10...01...00....06...01...00.....6"
1971-72....11...00...00....08...00...00.....4"
1972-73....02...00...00....02...00...00.....1"
1973-74....13...02...00....06...01...00.....6"
1974-75....11...00...00....04...00...00.....4"
1975-76....07...02...00....03...02...00.....8"
1976-77....21...00...00....16...00...00.....3"
1977-78....31...03...00....12...03...00.....9"
1978-79....25...11...05....19...06...05...22"
1979-80....14...00...00....06...00...00.....5"

1980-81....03...00...00....02...00...00.....2"
1981-82....29...10...00....19...07...00.....8"
1982-83....19...07...06....11...06...06...23"
1983-84....20...00...00....10...00...00.....5"
1984-85....13...00...00....06...00...00.....3"
1985-86....14...00...00....07...00...00.....5"
1986-87....21...12...10....14...11...05...17"
1987-88....18...02...00....10...02...00.....7"
1988-89....09...00...00....03...00...00.....3"
1989-90....28...00...00....22...00...00.....5"

1990-91....07...00...00....03...00...00.....4"
1991-92....04...00...00....02...00...00.....2"
1992-93....15...04...01....07...04...01...11"
1993-94....24...00...00....07...00...00.....4"
1994-95....08...01...00....08...01...00.....7"
1995-96....28...15...11....12...12...11...25"
1996-97....12...01...00....07...01...00.....6"
1997-98....03...00...00....01...00...00.....1"
1998-99....17...00...00....06...00...00.....5"
1999-00....23...05...04....22...05...04...15"

2000-01....10...00...00....04...00...00.....4"
2001-02....03...00...00....03...00...00.....2"
2002-03....42...10...05....19...06...05...18"
2003-04....22...03...00....13...03...00.....6"
2004-05....17...00...00....08...00...00.....5"
2005-06....10...01...01....05...01...01...13"
2006-07....13...00...00....07...00...00.....4"
2007-08....08...00...00....04...00...00.....4"
2008-09....10...00...00....05...00...00.....5"
2009-10....38...26...18....25...17...13...34"
2010-11....17...01...00....11...01...00.....7"
2011-12....01...00...00....01...00...00.....1"

2012-13....06...00...00....03...00...00.....3"

Most/least days 1"
52 1960-61 ... 00 1949-50
42 2002-03 ... 01 2011-12
38 2009-10 ... 02 1972-73
35 1957-58 ... 03 1980-81
35 1963-64 ... 03 1997-98
32 1962-63 ... 03 2001-02
31 1977-78 ... 04 1991-92
29 1981-82 ... 05 1958-59
28 1966-67 ... 06 1950-51
28 1989-90 ... 06 1951-52
28 1995-96 ... 06 2012-13
..........................................
days 6"
26 2009-10
20 1960-61
15 1995-96
12 1986-87
11 1957-58
11 1965-66
11 1978-79
10 1966-67
10 1981-82
10 2002-03
days 10"
17 2009-10
11 1995-96
10 1986-87
06 1965-66
06 1982-83
05 1957-58
05 1978-79
05 2002-03
04 1999-00
Consecutive days 1"
30 1960-61
25 2009-10
22 1989-90
22 1999-00
21 1960-61* two separate streaks..
20 1962-63
19 1978-79
19 1981-82
19 2002-03
18 1965-66
Consecutive days 6"
17 2009-10
12 1995-96
11 1986-87
10 1965-66
07 1957-58
07 1981-82
06 1978-79
06 1982-83
06 2002-03
Consecutive days 10"
13 2009-10
11 1995-96
06 1965-66
06 1982-83
05 1957-58
05 1978-79
05 1986-87
05 2002-03
04 1999-00
Maximum depth...
34" 2009-10
25" 1995-96
23" 1982-83
22" 1978-79
18" 2002-03
17" 1965-66
17" 1986-87
16" 1957-58
15" 1999-00
13" 1960-61
13" 2005-06
11" 1992-93
10" 1959-60
10" 1961-62
10" 1966-67

...................................

10" depths buy decade...

1950's...1

1960's...5

1970's...1

1980's...2

1990's...2

2000's...3

2009-10 is well a head for maximum depth...most 6" and 10" days...consecutive 6" and 10" days...1960-61 has the most 1" days and consecutive 1" days...

[weathafella]

Good stuff unc. Nice to see the Mick batting righty in your avatar.

[Ginx snewx]

Only problem is UNC they stopped doing snow depth at airports.

[ORH_wxman]

Only problem is UNC they stopped doing snow depth at airports.

 

 

Yep, snow depth at BOS stopped sometime around 10 years ago. I remember they still had depth in 2003, but I don't remember it after that.

[uncle W]

to bad they stopped...is there any other sight near bye with snow depth?...I got the idea from a 1973 weatherwise magazine that wrote about Philadelphia getting only a trace of snow for the first time...1960-61 was their worst winter at the time...

[blizzardof96]

The more I look at the winter of 1990-91, the better it looks as an analog for this upcoming winter. First thing to note is that it matches very well with our current QBO state. It is one of two years(the other one being 85-86) within 3.50 of our current 30mb QBO anomaly that also has a neutral ENSO state.

 

2013 30mb QBO numbers from Feb to Sept:  -4.13  -0.23   3.12   8.36  14.25  17.89  21.01  21.36

1990 for the same time period:                   -6.78  -5.74   1.21   5.68  13.06  17.40  19.26  19.32

 

 

The Dec-Feb SST pattern also matches up very well with forecast SST setup from the ECMWF/CFSv2. Note the warmest ENSO anomalies are in nino regions 3 and 4 with very warm water east of japan. Cool water is positioned off the west coast which is where we are trending this year given expected troughiness in the GOA.

 

1990-91 SST setup:

 

Euro DEC forecast looks fairly similar with the exception of a warmer north atlantic setup. Would expect more blocking and higher heights near the canadian maritimes with this years setup. 

 

500mb heights in 90-91 have more of a positive NAO look with a SE ridge and a -WPO/strong aleutians ridge.

 

Another interesting note about that winter is the spike positive in the PDO in late summer and early fall only to see the index drop considerably during winter.

Jul to feb PDO: 0.27   0.11   0.38  -0.69  -1.69  -2.23  -2.02  -1.19

 

[CoastalWx]

Nah, '68-'69 all the way.

[CoastalWx]

90-91 goes to show you how a few hundred miles means everything.Almost a sh*tty version of '07-'08. That winter sucked.

[ORH_wxman]

1990-1991 was freezing in Canada. With a bit more trend toward of a -AO, that winter probably would look good here.

[mitchnick]

MEI says winter 90/91 naso much

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/rank.html

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

[Ginx snewx]

Nah, '68-'69 all the way.

great post, as usual you will not make any call just sit back and crack at others.

[ORH_wxman]

great post, as usual you will not make any call just sit back and crack at others.

 

 

I think skillful prediction of winter before October is not yet viable with our current understanding. At least in our region. If you have a potent ENSO phase, its easier to call the PAC NW and SE US with more lead time, but up here, it eludes us until October because we are less dependent on ENSO.

[Ginx snewx]

The lack of correlation with NE winter and the Pacific nino region needs to be reviewed

[Ginx snewx]

I think skillful prediction of winter before October is not yet viable with our current understanding. At least in our region. If you have a potent ENSO phase, its easier to call the PAC NW and SE US with more lead time, but up here, it eludes us until October because we are less dependent on ENSO.

Scooter being Scooter with his insightful knocks....

[uncle W]

I like 1964 and 1981 as analogs for the fall...If they hold into the winter it could be a cold one with at least average snowfall...October was cold both years...

[weathafella]

to bad they stopped...is there any other sight near bye with snow depth?...I got the idea from a 1973 weatherwise magazine that wrote about Philadelphia getting only a trace of snow for the first time...1960-61 was their worst winter at the time...

Unc.....I'm presuming that's wrong about Philly and 1960-61. It was a a great winter DC-BOS.

[uncle W]

Unc.....I'm presuming that's wrong about Philly and 1960-61. It was a a great winter DC-BOS.

worst meaning for the public...For weenies like me it was the best...

[weathafella]

worst meaning for the public...For weenies like me it was the best...

So true!

[NJwinter23]

90-91 has been thrown around quite a bit.. It was a pretty close match to the end of summer into first part of Sept, and had a warm fall over all. We seem on that path at the moment. Good news is that it was heading to solar max (obviously a much more active one than what we are seeing now a days)  and that may have played in to the +AO regime through the winter. All else being equal to that year, give me less solar activity and a solid SAI signal this Oct, and I'd take my chances if I were in New England.

[CoastalWx]

Scooter being Scooter with his insightful knocks....

You know I'm going to joke with you when you forecast a huge winter every year. I already have my first thoughts over the summer. I don't see too may red flags this go around but that does not mean much.

[Damage In Tolland]

More good news..wow

 

 

 

Historic Low Sun Activity To Impact Winter Temperatures?

www.abc2news.com

Weather blog

 

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

90-91 has been thrown around quite a bit.. It was a pretty close match to the end of summer into first part of Sept, and had a warm fall over all. We seem on that path at the moment. Good news is that it was heading to solar max (obviously a much more active one than what we are seeing now a days)  and that may have played in to the +AO regime through the winter. All else being equal to that year, give me less solar activity and a solid SAI signal this Oct, and I'd take my chances if I were in New England.

Warm fall? we are below normal for the month

[Ginx snewx]

You know I'm going to joke with you when you forecast a huge winter every year. I already have my first thoughts over the summer. I don't see too may red flags this go around but that does not mean much.

I know but you forget my other winters call? 

[Ginx snewx]

 Solar cycle continues unusual and quiet, from ABC news

What does this mean for winter?

Studies by several scientists show low solar activity can actually be linked to harsh winter in the United States and northern Europe.

Studies find temperature and pressure patterns associated with low solar activity resemble the negative phases of NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation which can bring brutal cold air from northern Canada into the United States.

A survey done by NASA in 2001 found that during the 17 th century also known as the “ Maunder Minimum” brutal cold air was found from the Northeastern USA into Europe.

Other research finds a weaker polar vortex can be found displaced from pushed further south near the United States bordering bringing cold air into the eastern United States and Europe.