The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[Damage In Tolland]

Everyones favorite tweeter at it again..

 

 

Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan7h

been staring at maps for decades, can not recall this kind of cold- Greenland to NW Passage in July- Winter will be early this year- again

[CoastalWx]

I think he seriously does not give a shiat anymore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

"Again"? Winter was late last year, not early lol WTF

[CoastalWx]

"Again"? Winter was late last year, not early lol WTF

 

He's lost it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nah, Scoot...he has a degree.

Smile, nod, and defer.

The man knows the science.

[ORH_wxman]

Well in fairness, we did get a significant accumulating snow event on November 7th last year...so he could be referring to that as winter "starting early"...and the month was pretty cold.

 

But December certainly was a torch and the bulk of the seasonal snowfall fell in February and March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Last year was late, the year before didn't have a winter...you have to go back to '10-'11 to see anything even resembling an early start......I think he's stuck in '07-'09 lol

[Tropopause_Fold]

Nah, Scoot...he has a degree.

Smile, nod, and defer.

The man knows the science.

thou shalt not question 

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is true....but it wasn't major....don't remember it that well.

Will, we have to sit down at some point so you can get me up to speed again....the world stopped for a year for me.

[ORH_wxman]

My guess right now is another neutral winter for ENSO.

 

Euro and CFS seem to want to have a lot of ridging out west early on this winter. Still a long ways out though.

[Ginx snewx]

bitches

[powderfreak]

Suppression.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Suppression.

 

for you that is ideal for CT 

[powderfreak]

for you that is ideal for CT 

 

Ehh that was tongue-in-cheek, haha.

 

I'd never be worried or even seriously consider a CFS forecast from July.  Plus those anomalies are soooo small (like -0.5C) at H85 that it would probably be business as usual in the northeast. 

 

Its going to snow up here this winter, that's a definite.

[Ginx snewx]

Ehh that was tongue-in-cheek, haha.

 

I'd never be worried or even seriously consider a CFS forecast from July.  Plus those anomalies are soooo small (like -0.5C) at H85 that it would probably be business as usual in the northeast. 

 

Its going to snow up here this winter, that's a definite.

no doubt but hey lets see how the model does. I am on Jerrys train this year, voodoo weenies do that ya know, we know nothing

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ginx, that is def. a -NAO/+PDO/-EPO trifecta lol

[Ginx snewx]

Ginx, that is def. a -NAO/+PDO/-EPO trifecta lol

fun to look at but you know how that goes

[40/70 Benchmark]

I fell on face with regard to my thoughts on the '12 season....but nailed last year.

Really don't have a feel for this year yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd actually rather a weak la Nina, than ENSO neutral......of course, a weak warm ENSO event would be optimal, but that doesn't look to be in the cards any longer.

I'll take my chances with weak ENSO and a weak westerly QBO everytime.

NAO and EPO will be pivotal indexes, of course....

[powderfreak]

no doubt but hey lets see how the model does. I am on Jerrys train this year, voodoo weenies do that ya know, we know nothing

 

Yeah I'd take my chances with that pattern though... I just want a stormy pattern always.  Hate dry.  If its wet, it'll snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, with the exception of the south coast and the cape, all of New England's snowfall is more highly correlated to precipitation, than it is temperature.

From the s coast points southward, that changes.

[Ginx snewx]

Yea, with the exception of the south coast and the cape, all of New England's snowfall is more highly correlated to precipitation, than it is temperature.

From the s coast points southward, that changes.

Get me some miller Bs and Noreasters and then we will worry whether Jerrys elephant is back shiiting on us. Honestly the way its setting up I am very encouraged .

[CoastalWx]

The QBO looks a little tough for me as far as blocking goes unless we have solar bombardment. But, it may be in the stages of switching in the higher altitudes. Not sure that I'm feeling all warm and fuzzy for this winter, but as last winter shows us...it can always be a tale of two winters.

[ORH_wxman]

Back to back neutrals are fairly rare but have a good shot at doing it this year. Last time we had back to back neutral winters was 1992-1993 and 1993-1994. Of course, we loved those winters (if you like snow and cold) but that was a post-Pinatubo along with +PDO regime. So can't really compare them.

[weathafella]

Back to back neutrals are fairly rare but have a good shot at doing it this year. Last time we had back to back neutral winters was 1992-1993 and 1993-1994. Of course, we loved those winters (if you like snow and cold) but that was a post-Pinatubo along with +PDO regime. So can't really compare them.

 

 

Well....this was KIND OF 1992-93 esque.  Can 1993-94 blow the door down around 12/27/13?

 

 

[CoastalWx]

With waters like that you certainly open the door up for the MJO to move into the dateline should it want to propagate.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Well....this was KIND OF 1992-93 esque.  Can 1993-94 blow the door down around 12/27/13?

 

 

 

Still a lot of warm water SW of the Aleutians though which is a signature of a -PDO...so the warm GOA isn't the only factor. It basically just makes the PDO neutral at the moment.

Looks like a reverse tripole is setting up in the Atlantic too...cold waters up near Greenland and then again down near the tropics with a band of warmer in the mid-latitudes...that is opposite of recent years. The current setup would typically favor a +NAO for the winter though the correlation in July is weak.

[nzucker]

 

 

Still a lot of warm water SW of the Aleutians though which is a signature of a -PDO...so the warm GOA isn't the only factor. It basically just makes the PDO neutral at the moment.

Looks like a reverse tripole is setting up in the Atlantic too...cold waters up near Greenland and then again down near the tropics with a band of warmer in the mid-latitudes...that is opposite of recent years. The current setup would typically favor a +NAO for the winter though the correlation in July is weak.

North Pacific SSTs have warmed a lot though in recent months...

[CoastalWx]

West Pac TC season has been slow to start...we'll see what happens over the next two months and how that chart changes.

[N. OF PIKE]

Its going to snow up here this winter, that's a definite.

Lets hope the froude #'s are predominantly below .75 lol for u