weathafella Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 6z was different from 12 and 0. Way to cherry pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 all three gfes runs have the same general pattern.... a low anomaly south of alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Well the main PV on the ensembles kind of gets situated over nrn Siberia with a lobe near the Bering Sea. I'd be more concerned if the actual monster PV itself was modeled to sit near AK in November. I bet some of those high SAI years had some sort of Bering Sea vortex or lobe by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Well the main PV on the ensembles kind of gets situated over nrn Siberia with a lobe near the Bering Sea. I'd be more concerned if the actual monster PV itself was modeled to sit near AK in November. I bet some of those high SAI years had some sort of Bering Sea vortex or lobe by default.it's not stable anyways, many many years in the fall feature that, winter comes early to AK, actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Euro ensembles have fairly persistent low heights near AK as well. But its still way too early to worry about it right now. Even though it formed and more or less stayed there in 2011, there's countless other years we had it for a while in early autumn and then it morphed into something totally different. The PV doesn't really get going until late Oct and November which is when I start worrying about a persistent vortex up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 all three gfes runs have the same general pattern.... a low anomaly south of alaska What is your winter forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 What is your winter forecast? Heavy heavy trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Loop the 12z GEFS and the transient nature and instability is clear. A lot less robust vortex vs 6z of course forky would post the 6z ensemble mean. Even the 00z ensemble mean wasnt that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Bottom line is to not worry so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Bottom line is to not worry so early. since when did weenies become good listeners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Heavy heavy trolling2 months in a row BN here it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 2 months in a row BN here it seems.Yep...just in time for the rubber-band to snap back the other way in late fall Hopefully we can just keep the ball rolling with this Aug/Sept pattern of frequent, nice cool shots without regressing to a warmer pattern as we head deeper into fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Yep...just in time for the rubber-band to snap back the other way in late fall Hopefully we can just keep the ball rolling with this Aug/Sept pattern of frequent, nice cool shots without regressing to a warmer pattern as we head deeper into fall. I know the purely science folks disagree but nature has a way of showing its colors early. Perfectly normal progression this year towards a early season. I fully expect some warm shots in Oct Indian summer wise with Coastals getting churned up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Until someone shows a robust correlation up in our area for autumn temperatures vs winter temps/snowfall, I am not going to take any real pattern seriously in the autumn. The AO/NAO has a robust inverse relationship in October although it has tended to break down more often in recent years. The advances in October Siberian snow cover's predictive value to wintertime AO has surpassed the older inverse AO/NAO relationship anyways. But even with that, our winter forecasts here are not that easy...we've seen some big ones in a +AO setup. We'd still definitely prefer -AO, but its not a death sentence as much as it is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Earlier that month, BTV also got fringed with similar amounts by the Lindsay Storm which nailed the rest of central and eastern NNE with mostly 12"+.I didn't think Lindsay made it that far north. Wasn't there another storm later that week that did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 I didn't think Lindsay made it that far north. Wasn't there another storm later that week that did? Not that I'm aware of. Lindsay Storm was mostly a New England storm but it gets remembered as an NYC storm since the forecast was a bust there...it was supposed to change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Not that I'm aware of. Lindsay Storm was mostly a New England storm but it gets remembered as an NYC storm since the forecast was a bust there...it was supposed to change to rainThanks. Usually I can rely on my ample memory but it's not perfect. Maybe the storm two (2) years earlier, on February 7, 1967 is the one I am thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Nice to read how many pro forecasters are now relying more on predictive states of the N/AO for correlation to New England winters and putting much much less emphasis on ENSO state. AER and Dr Cohen have led the way. Something some of us here have preached for years, correlation values are much higher. Watching the increase rate of Eurasia from now until the end of October closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Thanks. Usually I can rely on my ample memory but it's not perfect. Maybe the storm two (2) years earlier, on February 7, 1967 is the one I am thinking of. Maybe you were thinking of this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Maybe you were thinking of this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I don't know what this means, but wicked + WP means trough in SIberia and they are getting buried. http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2013&ui_day=266&ui_set=2 I would like to see this 3 weeks from now, but I guess it can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 lol, My all time favorite, The Bob O'Rill storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Nah, that was a big western Canada vortex with a very poleward Aleutian ridge...combine with a -NAO and that is a classic cold La Nina pattern for much of the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS: The key is the cross polar flow to make Canada very cold...with the vortex further west over AK or EPO/WPO region, the source region is no longer the arctic for Canadaian airmasses, it becomes the Pacific. The '70-'71 pattern above supports a flow right off the arctic down into western Canada...and then it can spread eastward with little Pacific taint. It really comes to light what you are saying when you compare the last half of December 2012 to 70-71... Looks like where the polar vortex is situated would appear to be a big deal too though. Last year we had a Canadian warming in the stratosphere in the wake of it escaping to siberia for late Dec...the result was faux nao blocking and no cold air available..compare to the same late Dec period in 1970 which did not have aleutian blocking either (yet at least), butit was much much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The last few seasons definitely have had a tendency for the PV to be on other parts of the globe, whether it be the UK or eastern Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 It really comes to light what you are saying when you compare the last half of December 2012 to 70-71... 12-15-31 2012.png Looks like where the polar vortex is situated would appear to be a big deal too though. Last year we had a Canadian warming in the stratosphere in the wake of it escaping to siberia for late Dec...the result was faux nao blocking and no cold air available..compare to the same late Dec period in 1970 which did not have aleutian blocking either (yet at least), butit was much much colder 12-15-31 1970.png 12-15-31 1970 strat temps.png 12-15-31 2012 strat temps.png The devil is in the details too...I can't upload right now for some reason, but if you look at Dec 15-20, 1970 (the first several days of your 12/15-12/31 composite), you'll notice a pretty good EPO/WPO ridge which dumps arctic cold into Canada. Then we go to more of an RNA SWFE event pattern from Dec 20-25 which has brutal cold over Canada/Northern Tier via that initial EPO dump...this actually coincided with a huge two part snow event (SWFE style) in SNE that month. Then the vortex starts building over AK after Dec 24-25...but the cold is already in Canada by this point. The vortex is fairly transient too and we end up getting saved a bit by the NAO during its brief tenure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Nice to read how many pro forecasters are now relying more on predictive states of the N/AO for correlation to New England winters and putting much much less emphasis on ENSO state. AER and Dr Cohen have led the way. Something some of us here have preached for years, correlation values are much higher. Watching the increase rate of Eurasia from now until the end of October closely. For NYC a very negative AO almost always leads to or follows a snowstorm or cold wave or both... lowest daily winter ao value since 1950...I hope I didn't miss a date...Weather at the time for NYC... season.......value.....date..... 1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...record cold the beginning of the month... 1950-51......-4.353.....12/27/50....3" snow 12/27 and 9 degrees...the biggest snow and coldest temperature of the winter... 1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2... 1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31... 1953-54......-3.495.....1/30/54......cold continues...Cold snowy January... 1954-55......-3.064.....1/4/55........cold continues... 1955-56......-4.564.....2/15/56......1.4" 2/17 and 2/22...Big March snows...... 1956-57......-4.473.....2/21/57......2.6" snow 3/1... 1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...... 1958-59......-4.026.....1/7/59........cold continues... 1959-60......-4.108.....1/28/60......18 degrees 2/3 is the coldest temp for Feb...Big March cold and snow..... 1960-61......-2.719.....1/10/61......greatest snowy and cold period followed 1/15-2/12..... 1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6... 1962-63......-5.010.....1/21/63......Near record cold 1/23 and 4" snow 1/26...Biggest snow of the season... 1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard.... 1964-65......-3.973.....1/26/65......ice storm 1/24 and continued cold... 1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...7" on 1/30... 1966-67......-4.147.....12/13/66....wet snow and rain 12/13-14 is the start of two weeks of snow and cold...7" snow 12/24-25... 1967-68......-3.490.....2/7/68........8 degrees 2/11...Cold and dry continues... 1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10...... 1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month...4" of snow 3/29... 1970-71......-2.821.....2/6/71........12 degrees max 2/2... 1972-73......-2.044.....12/17/72...24 degrees max 12/17... 1973-74......-2.792.....12/19/73...big ice storm 12/16-17...17 degrees 12/19 is the coldest temp of the month... 1974-75......-1.695.....12/18/74...some minor cold in a mild month...one of the few times the weather was benign at the ao minimum... 1975-76......-3.262.....1/24/76......-1 degrees 1/23 is the coldest temp of the winter...1" of snow 1/23... 1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15... 1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7...... 1978-79......-4.387.....1/25/79......Very cold and snowy February...... 1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80......continued cold and dry...longest stretch of cold that winter... 1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5... 1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81...January 1982 was very cold and snowy... 1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12...... 1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9... 1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85.....-2 degrees 1/21 is the coldest temperature that winter... 1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......4.5" of snow 2/7 and 2/11...Snowiest period of the winter... 1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10... 1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......0.6" 2/27 is the last measurable snow...Thawing after... 1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7... 1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89...One of the coldest Decembers on record... 1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.......24 degrees 3/12...... 1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.....0.7" 12/5...... 1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...... 1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94.....2.6" 2/23...12 degrees 2/27...Feb KU... 1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month...... 1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...8" of snow during a very cold period...January blizzard..... 1996-97......-3.377.....12/30/96...11 degrees New Years Day.... 1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.....14 degrees New Years day...Coldest of the winter... 1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month... 1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00......3" snow and ice 2/22...... 2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01......6" snow 2/22 and 17 degrees...coldest for the month... 2001-02......-3.293.....12/28/01...Coldest period of the winter followed but benign... 2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter... blizzard in February... 2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec. ... 2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29...blizzard in January... 2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05......2" snow 12/4...1" 2/6 and 6" 12/9...14 degrees 12/14 is the coldest temp of the season...... 2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter... 2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08........12 degrees 1/3 second coldest of the winter... 2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09........4.3" 2/5 12 degrees... 2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20......16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month... 2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14... 2011-12......-3.451.....1/28/12...4.3" of snow 1/21... largest snowfall of the season... 2012-13......-4.802.....3/19/13...3.0" of snow 3/18..... 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NJwinter23 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The devil is in the details too...I can't upload right now for some reason, but if you look at Dec 15-20, 1970 (the first several days of your 12/15-12/31 composite), you'll notice a pretty good EPO/WPO ridge which dumps arctic cold into Canada. Then we go to more of an RNA SWFE event pattern from Dec 20-25 which has brutal cold over Canada/Northern Tier via that initial EPO dump...this actually coincided with a huge two part snow event (SWFE style) in SNE that month. Then the vortex starts building over AK after Dec 24-25...but the cold is already in Canada by this point. The vortex is fairly transient too and we end up getting saved a bit by the NAO during its brief tenure. Ah that makes sense. I was a bit suspicious seeing that 10mb composite for 1970 that there wasnt aleutian blocking being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 lol, My all time favorite, The Bob O'Rill storm Makes me continue to wish I'd lived in the Farmington area for that one - 43" over 4 days building snowpack to 84", tallest I've sfound for any Maine station, though Pinkham Notch topped out over 150". (I'm not totally sure I believe the 84, though when the snow got deep in Feb 2008, older folks recalled "the mother of all snowpacks" from 39 yr earlier. Also, the decrease in depth appears to relate logically with the observed wx - no sudden 20" drops the first time it gets above 40.) Minor quibble with unc: One of the coldest Decembers? Is there any place in the Northeast that did NOT record their coldest ever December in 1989? (For NYC, it looks to be coldest by 3F, over 140 yr records.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The last few seasons definitely have had a tendency for the PV to be on other parts of the globe, whether it be the UK or eastern Russia. Definitely true, even in the cold 09-10 and 10-11 winters (nationally, not so much new england in 09-10), the cold wasnt impressive from an extreme temp standpoint. I'd argue that this helped allow for all the active wintry weather we had during the epic blocking...versus a tightened up vortex displaced in southern canada (see the latter part of last Jan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Makes me continue to wish I'd lived in the Farmington area for that one - 43" over 4 days building snowpack to 84", tallest I've sfound for any Maine station, though Pinkham Notch topped out over 150". (I'm not totally sure I believe the 84, though when the snow got deep in Feb 2008, older folks recalled "the mother of all snowpacks" from 39 yr earlier. Also, the decrease in depth appears to relate logically with the observed wx - no sudden 20" drops the first time it gets above 40.) Minor quibble with unc: One of the coldest Decembers? Is there any place in the Northeast that did NOT record their coldest ever December in 1989? (For NYC, it looks to be coldest by 3F, over 140 yr records.) 1876 and 1917 were colder in Central Park...The talk of December 1970 brings back memories of pre Christmas snow and sleet and a white New Years...A very cold January but warmer the second half of February...no snow in February made it a bummer but north of us did fine...33 and rain was the theme for us in February 1971... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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