The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[JBG]

My IMBY reaction:  NNE was just the opposite.  The big storms of 60-61 missed wide right or at best grazed, while 70-71 set or approached season snowfall records.  (Fortunately for me, I lived in NNJ for 60-61, where we had over 100" snowfall and record-demolishing snow depth.)

I think 1970-1 were the winters that Albany and Ottawa hit records. As I said it was a mediocre winter in New York, though not as bad as the next two.

[Ginx snewx]

First thoughts, final call Halloween with snowfall guesses .

[Ginx snewx]

-EPO winter, Jerry is on fire

[powderfreak]

First thoughts, final call Halloween with snowfall guesses .

 

 

Good lord I hope you are wrong on those temperatures. 

 

Snowfall is a toss up.  One year awful, one year epic, one year decent.

 

There is a snowfall trend though... those three years include good early season and late season snow but Jan/Feb is pretty weak.  My guess would be because those temps would imply brutal cold mid-winter and no snow.

[Ginx snewx]

Good lord I hope you are wrong on those temperatures.

Snowfall is a toss up. One year awful, one year epic, one year decent.

There is a snowfall trend though... those three years include good early season and late season snow but Jan/Feb is pretty weak. My guess would be because those temps would imply brutal cold mid-winter and no snow.

Ok MPM

[powderfreak]

Ok MPM

 

Haha.  The point still remains that snowfall is tied to precipitation and not temperatures up here.  I do not bang cold winter anomalies like you guys do further south.  50" of snow at BTV (3 feet below normal) and -2.5F departures doesn't do much for me.

 

Though 70-71 would be a dream again.  So maybe we just roll the dice

[powderfreak]

What is interesting about that anomaly map, is how the western Great Lakes are near normal, while the east is well below and so are the northern Plains.  Usually on these composite maps of various years, if the northern Plains are cold and the east is cold, everyone between is cold as well.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Good lord I hope you are wrong on those temperatures. 

 

Snowfall is a toss up.  One year awful, one year epic, one year decent.

 

There is a snowfall trend though... those three years include good early season and late season snow but Jan/Feb is pretty weak.  My guess would be because those temps would imply brutal cold mid-winter and no snow.

'60-'61 was suppression city for you...massive Mid-Atlantic winter. SNE managed to cash in on the northern extent of that. The other two were very good for NNE.

[powderfreak]

'60-'61 was suppression city for you...massive Mid-Atlantic winter. SNE managed to cash in on the northern extent of that. The other two were very good for NNE.

Yeah from BTV's data, that 60-61 was only 50"...then around 90" for the next set (within the "normal" range)...but 70-71 was 145" which is huge for BTV and included 60" in December alone.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Yeah from BTV's data, that 60-61 was only 50"...then around 90" for the next set (within the "normal" range)...but 70-71 was 145" which is huge for BTV and included 60" in December alone.

 

BTV missed most of the huge Feb '69 retro-storm...which probably hurt them relative to other NNE areas further east. I think even the NE Kingdom of VT got 20-30" in that while BTV had a mundane 4-8" storm.

Earlier that month, BTV also got fringed with similar amounts by the Lindsay Storm which nailed the rest of central and eastern NNE with mostly 12"+.

[powderfreak]

BTV missed most of the huge Feb '69 retro-storm...which probably hurt them relative to other NNE areas further east. I think even the NE Kingdom of VT got 20-30" in that while BTV had a mundane 4-8" storm.

Earlier that month, BTV also got fringed with similar amounts by the Lindsay Storm which nailed the rest of central and eastern NNE with mostly 12"+.

Ahhh that makes sense. I was wondering because I thought that was the winter everyone says was awesome in NNE but I was surprised to find BTV had the same snowfall that winter as they did in 2009-2010

But BTV can be misleading due to all the little nuances of terrain and such...like 09-10 with a localized 36" event, or 68-69 they probably got downsloped in any big ENE flow coastal while where I am now on the east slope might have done better.

Of all New England major climo spots with long term records, BTV probably is the most likely to have some odd meso-scale phenomenon event(s) skew data one way or another.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Ahhh that makes sense. I was wondering because I thought that was the winter everyone says was awesome in NNE but I was surprised to find BTV had the same snowfall that winter as they did in 2009-2010

But BTV can be misleading due to all the little nuances of terrain and such...like 09-10 with a localized 36" event, or 68-69 they probably got downsloped in any big ENE flow coastal while where I am now on the east slope might have done better.

Of all New England major climo spots with long term records, BTV probably is the most likely to have some odd meso-scale phenomenon event(s) skew data one way or another.

 

Just look at Mansfield data from '68-'69...I'm sure it paints a better picture than BTV's raw snow totals.

[Isotherm]

Yeah from BTV's data, that 60-61 was only 50"...then around 90" for the next set (within the "normal" range)...but 70-71 was 145" which is huge for BTV and included 60" in December alone.

 

 

 

'60 was a 60" winter for us in NJ...I'll take that with a side of fries. 20" for D, J and F. Beautifully split winter with no garbage out of season fall or spring events.

[Ginx snewx]

 

 

Just look at Mansfield data from '68-'69...I'm sure it paints a better picture than BTV's raw snow totals.

The MPM of the great white north

[powderfreak]

The MPM of the great white north

lol, why cause I have reservations?

I'm just not one to always assume we are headed for a great winter. I'm always skeptical. It seems like every fall we are headed for the next best winter.

[ORH_wxman]

 

lol, why cause I have reservations?

I'm just not one to always assume we are headed for a great winter. I'm always skeptical. It seems like every fall we are headed for the next best winter.

 

There's definitely some reasons to be afraid of a neutral...but thankfully the solar activity seems to be going dormant again. Neutral with high solar is scary. ('01-'02, '90-'91, '79-'80)

[Ginx snewx]

lol, why cause I have reservations?

I'm just not one to always assume we are headed for a great winter. I'm always skeptical. It seems like every fall we are headed for the next best winter.

LoL, you will have snow cover from Dec until late March whether its 8 inches thick or 30. You are as skeptical as MPM every storm

[powderfreak]

LoL, you will have snow cover from Dec until late March whether its 8 inches thick or 30. You are as skeptical as MPM every storm

I've gotten more skeptical as the years go on...I think it's part professional conservatism born out of the fact that with the ski resort my job is sort of to alert to worst case scenarios with weather. Obviously snow is good and no snow is bad, so I lean more toward worse case scenario rather then best case. No ski area wants to be told its going to be an epic winter every single year, as they may want you to think that when buying your pass, but operationally they know that just isn't how it works. It's better to budget for the worse case scenario and then exceed those expectations than the other way around. Same applies to individual events...you say a foot and 6" falls, that's bad. You say 6-9" and 12" falls, that's much better.

[Ginx snewx]

I've gotten more skeptical as the years go on...I think it's part professional conservatism born out of the fact that with the ski resort my job is sort of to alert to worst case scenarios with weather. Obviously snow is good and no snow is bad, so I lean more toward worse case scenario rather then best case. No ski area wants to be told its going to be an epic winter every single year, as they may want you to think that when buying your pass, but operationally they know that just isn't how it works. It's better to budget for the worse case scenario and then exceed those expectations than the other way around. Same applies to individual events...you say a foot and 6" falls, that's bad. You say 6-9" and 12" falls, that's much better.

Your worst season ever is probably one of my best , just saying

[Ginx snewx]

Oh i forgot

[ORH_wxman]

 

Oh i forgot

 

Looks like '68-'69 was only average at Mansfield.

BTV stats FTL.

[Ginx snewx]

Also PF cold weather from Dec to March with a little less snow but much less snow making would be more profitable no? especially if SNE through DC was getting hammered ala 60/61 

[J.Spin]

 

Though 70-71 would be a dream again.  So maybe we just roll the dice

 

 

Just look at Mansfield data from '68-'69...I'm sure it paints a better picture than BTV's raw snow totals.

 

 

Frankly, based on the Mt. Mansfield snow depth plots, it looks like anything from that 68-71 stretch would be agreeable to folks up here:

 

 

Even expanding the period out to six seasons by adding ‘67-’68, ’71-’72, and ’72-’73 still produces quite a nice plot – that must have been one impressive series of winters in NVT.

[powderfreak]

Looks like '68-'69 was only average at Mansfield.

BTV stats FTL.

Yeah, good call.

But WTF on 60-61. That's record low snow depth in February.

How does that year come close to showing up in a list with the other two years?

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, good call.

But WTF on 60-61. That's record low snow depth in February.

How does that year come close to showing up in a list with the other two years?

proof that every year nuances produce different results

[Ginx snewx]

Pretty cool how like hurricane season with its secondary max in Oct, Mansfield has that secondary max the first weeks of April.

[powderfreak]

Pretty cool how like hurricane season with its secondary max in Oct, Mansfield has that secondary max the first weeks of April.

Yeah and it makes sense when you think about it...the elevation is such that April is still sort of a winter month for the first half of the month at least, so it's going to snow and accumulate. However, there's always that stretch in March where we get the first taste of spring and like a week long stretch of 40s and 50s...so the snowpack finally settles out and compresses. Then inevitably, there's those April wet snows that cause it to spike again...some years, like last year, that secondary spike is in the second half of March, some years it waits till mid-April...it all depends when that first real taste of spring weather occurs and settles/melts some of the snowpack. I bet all the New England mountains see a similar decrease and increase couplet, before real spring moves in and takes it all down.

[weathafella]

People here would have been screaming bloody murder in the autumn of 1960. While Donna gave a big blow to the entire east coast, the overall trend was rather mild right up to the big blizzard of 12/11-12 or a few days before. October and November were mild and rather dry. Thanksgiving was in the 40s but the rest of the weekend was well into the 50s. My 14th bday was chilly on 12/1 but it milded up quickly and the first week of December was unpleasantly mild. There must hve been a boundary 12/4 as that was the day I went to the Giants- Dallas game with temperatures approaching 70. Our dads were remarking on the warmth but I was disgusted. Boston was in the 40s that day but the mild air made it in and a few days later we saw temperatures here in the 50s. Then we had a mundane step down until right before the December 1960 blizzard at which time the bottom dropped out. My mother made me sweep the oak leaves blowing into the garage whch was left open. I dutifully ....gleefully complied as I was sweeping into a north wind with temps down in the low 20s and warnings up for snow. What a storm that was! Heavy snow, heavy winds, single number temperatures during the storm.... Oustanding!

The next 2 months were among the best wintry periods of my lifetime. Coming of age in the 60s got off to a wintery bang! But some here would have lamented losing the winter months of October and November. Keep hope alive...it's coming and coming hard!

[blizzardof96]

I decided to look back at all years since 1979 that had a September 30mb QBO number within 5.00 of our monthly anomaly this september (21.36). These years also had to fall within 2 months of the westerly QBO peak. Keep in mind that all these years were in the westerly shear phase going into winter, which is where we are headed currently. Here is the corresponding 500mb pattern for the following Dec-Feb periods. Strong east based -NAO/-EPO and +PNA couplet.

OLR anomalies have the MJO mainly in phases 5-8 for the DEC-FEB period.

Precipitation has main storm track across the interior

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

You should try to filter out years to include only ENSO neutral years.