Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Thats what we were talking about several days ago. The more skillful set comes out today. Ha, ...more skillful relative to what? j/k seriously though, the few times I have dealt with those tools, they've sucked more that 50% of the time. Imho, I think we should be collectively focusing on the other more "physical" parameters of the debate. In quotes because ... they are more like pseudo-physical in the sense that they are intangible, but known to exist through inference. 'Ah, what the f is he talking about?' Well, basically we just came through a nice time length of cool ENSO, so it's time for a warm one to onset, though it hasn't yet; but the models have that happening, and that's sort of closed logic there. It's thus supported to take place and lends some credence to neutral warm ENSO by spring. That favors a +PNA. Then there's solar... Then there's multi-decadal (-AO/EPO/NAO) sign going negative... +AO autumn in the arctic --> -AO winter... blah blah-blah blah-blah. Of course, I guess "sense" these seem to support those weeklies as described, it has to be fair to say we don't know whether the Euro is picking up on them. Intuitively we'd have to say yes -- it would be fascinating to know exactly how those tools are parameterized. nice. Anyway, having said that, ... whether I believe in the usefulness of the Euro Weeklies or not, I think this winter is going to mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Ha, ...more skillful relative to what? j/k seriously though, the few times I have dealt with those tools, they've sucked more that 50% of the time. Imho, I think we should be collectively focusing on the other more "physical" parameters of the debate. In quotes because ... they are more like pseudo-physical in the sense that they are intangible, but known to exist through inference. 'Ah, what the f is he talking about?' Well, basically we just came through a nice time length of cool ENSO, so it's time for a warm one to onset, though it hasn't yet; but the models have that happening, and that's sort of closed logic there. It's thus supported to take place and lends some credence to neutral warm ENSO by spring. That favors a +PNA. Then there's solar... Then there's multi-decadal (-AO/EPO/NAO) sign going negative... +AO autumn in the arctic --> -AO winter... blah blah-blah blah-blah. Of course, I guess "sense" these seem to support those weeklies as described, it has to be fair to say we don't know whether the Euro is picking up on them. Intuitively we'd have to say yes -- it would be fascinating to know exactly how those tools are parameterized. nice. Anyway, having said that, ... whether I believe in the usefulness of the Euro Weeklies or not, I think this winter is going to mean business. There are two sets of seasonal outlooks that come out. The latest is an ensemble of ECMWF and NCEP CFS which is usually the more skillful as compared to the strictly ECMWF seasonal product. But yeah...it's early and I still put this in the "FWIW" category...but usually in September these outlooks start to mean a little more as we head closer to the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 15, 2013 Author Share Posted September 15, 2013 Looking at the daily ssta I think we'll find little change in the GOAK but s'more pretty decent warming in all ENSO regions with tomorrow's release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Hope this is right place to post this. I did my preliminary winter forecast on my blog. This was my anomaly thinking...since a lot of talk on this page has been about the PNA/NAO. DEC: Neutral or-NAO/-PNA JAN: -NAO/Neutral or -PNA FEB: -NAO/+PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Hope this is right place to post this. I did my preliminary winter forecast on my blog. This was my anomaly thinking...since a lot of talk on this page has been about the PNA/NAO. DEC: Neutral or-NAO/-PNA JAN: -NAO/Neutral or -PNA FEB: -NAO/+PNA why the negative PNA in Jan, oppo of what LR modeling has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 16, 2013 Author Share Posted September 16, 2013 Looking at the daily ssta I think we'll find little change in the GOAK but s'more pretty decent warming in all ENSO regions with tomorrow's release. AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 good luck with that alaskan vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 good luck with that alaskan vortex70/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 QPF issues for you. Honestly, who knows what this winter will be like...nevermind placement of SWFE. I hope someday we are able to tell placement of clippers and SW flow events with 3-4 months lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 why the negative PNA in Jan, oppo of what LR modeling has?Really? Looking at the CFS, seems to me more like a neutral. Hmm... Thanks though, I'll take that into account for my final winter forecast on November 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 EDIT Looks like I mixed something in the translation...this is my forecast "My thinking is that a favorable pattern finally starts to develop here, with a -NAO, -AO, and Neutral/+PNA. It probably won't be perfect , but it should be much better than December. (Pattern Wise)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 1961? Early February 1961 wasn't bad. 1971 was terrible, at least in NYC area. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Early February 1961 wasn't bad. 1971 was terrible, at least in NYC area. Next. 60-80 in SNE with ORH near 100,sounds right to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 60-80 in SNE with ORH near 100,sounds right to meKNYC had one 6-8" storm on 1/1/1971. Nothing really after that. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 KNYC had one 6-8" storm on 1/1/1971. Nothing really after that. Bleh. huge gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 1961? :wub:Early February 1961 wasn't bad. 1971 was terrible, at least in NYC area.Next. 1960-61 was one of the top 3 winters of my liife in the NYC area. I think we're doing that one again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 1960-61 was one of the top 3 winters of my liife in the NYC area. I think we're doing that one again this year. Apparently so do the squirrels. They are digging up my yard and even planting pots with acorns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 1960-61 was one of the top 3 winters of my liife in the NYC area. I think we're doing that one again this year. Apparently so do the squirrels. They are digging up my yard and even planting pots with acorns. They tend to lie.... Even here in DC it's coolish tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 They tend to lie.... Even here in DC it's coolish tonight Jerry you may get a chance to relive your 60/61 childhood, only further north with longer retention, that would be a hoot. Tell ya this teleconnections analogs ain't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 They tend to lie.... Even here in DC it's coolish tonightJerry you may get a chance to relive your 60/61 childhood, only further north with longer retention, that would be a hoot. Tell ya this teleconnections analogs ain't bad. Tell you what Steve. We had snow otg in nj dec to mid feb. it was epic and I think you're right about what's coming. My 8th grade science project was a wx station. Easy to set up the temperature grading. The night before school it was 0F and I left it out overnight...lol. 2 days later was the February monster of 1961. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 nobody ever calls for a mediocre winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 I'm concerned with the Alaskan vortex and warm autumns for mby. Forky harp on that 2 winters ago and was correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 I'm concerned with the Alaskan vortex and warm autumns for mby. Forky harp on that 2 winters ago and was correctHas he ever gotten any type of forecast correct? We can't recall any. If you have a link please provide it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Has he ever gotten any type of forecast correct? We can't recall any. If you have a link please provide itI don't have his exact stats in front of me, but two winters ago he was spot on for that winter. The vortex just park itself there. Obv I have no idea what's going to happen, but warm falls and a vortex scare me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 I'm concerned with the Alaskan vortex and warm autumns for mby. Forky harp on that 2 winters ago and was correctHow did you do in 1970/71? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 I will take 2010 and 2012 Octobers above normal in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 Niño coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Niño coming.slight Woot Woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Niño coming. More like neutral. Way too late to get a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Early February 1961 wasn't bad. 1971 was terrible, at least in NYC area. Next. My IMBY reaction: NNE was just the opposite. The big storms of 60-61 missed wide right or at best grazed, while 70-71 set or approached season snowfall records. (Fortunately for me, I lived in NNJ for 60-61, where we had over 100" snowfall and record-demolishing snow depth.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.