The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[weathafella]

Jerry here is a Neg Nao tripole ideal setup, compare with what you posted, not bad warm cold warm

Wow I missed that piece. Hopefully it comes true, thanks Steve.

[nzucker]

Wow I missed that piece. Hopefully it comes true, thanks Steve.

I agreed with your initial analysis: the large warm pool around 40-45N in the Atlantic (especially mild waters off the coast of Newfoundland) coupled with cooler waters just south of Greenland, spells a +NAO pattern with the lack of a 50/50 low due to the above average SSTs in the Canadian Maritimes. I think this is a reverse tripole, not conducive to a -NAO, but it's only one factor among many. Recent trends towards a decadal -NAO cycle as well as the low solar activity argue that we may see periods of blocking this winter in the Arctic/Atlantic along with a favorable Pacific due to the +PNA which corresponds with warm SSTs in the N PAC as well as the EC seasonal forecast. 

[weathafella]

Wow I missed that piece. Hopefully it comes true, thanks Steve.

Actually if you look at Steve's pic he posted, the current ssta around Iceland don't match. So Nate is probably right and just like in school, don't change your answer...you may have been right the first time!

[Isotherm]

Pacific SSTA is not all that great, though the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska is definitely an improvement from previous years if that can hold. ENSO will probably be neutral for the ensuing cold season, so not much impetus to force a temporary +PDO, but we can still get plenty of nice +PNA periods in a -PDO backdrop regime. Atlantic SSTA has and still looks unfavorable for neg NAO development in my opinion. Very, very early call on indices would be a +PNA / +NAO type regime with the background Neutral ENSO / -PDO. That would be a pattern that tries to build ridges on the West Coast yet also features fierce resistance on the East Coast via a tight Atlantic jet, probably putting the best of the cold / snows in the Mid-west up into the interior Northeast. All speculation but this is my initial read on the winter. Mild on the coasts and cold in the central US.

[Ginx snewx]

I am going to disagree, the evolution of the Atlantic pattern through the summer and fall Sst wise and similar evolutions lead me to believe that conditions are favorable for Neg NAO, of course the AO will have a lot to say about it, having said that as Isotherm said a nice Pos Pna and a neutral to Neg NAO works too. Just look at Jan last years Sst anamolies and how we evolved through Feb and March. 

[CoastalWx]

Ocean temps off by a couple degrees C likely won't have a huge say in the matter. Not enough energy in that cold water to build a ridge...instead what we are seeing is likely a product of the pattern and can serve to feedback on the pattern..but even that is sketchy and not always true. The general pattern is to want to favor a -NAO for several years now, but smaller features on a shorter timescale have a larger say as to what the AO/NAO will do. Gonna be chilly in Siberia over the next 2 weeks.

 

[ORH_wxman]

The N ATL tripole is a weak correlation to begin with. From what I remember, I think the max correlation was from May/June temps there and not autumn. But regardless, its a minor factor in any seasonal prediction.

[Typhoon Tip]

The N ATL tripole is a weak correlation to begin with. From what I remember, I think the max correlation was from May/June temps there and not autumn. But regardless, its a minor factor in any seasonal prediction.

 

and I've always questioned the chicken and the egg wrt to seasonal wind stress and whether the SSTs are actually just being redistributed by NAO fluxes.  

[ORH_wxman]

 

and I've always questioned the chicken and the egg wrt to seasonal wind stress and whether the SSTs are actually just being redistributed by NAO fluxes.

 

Yes, that has been questioned in papers too...whether the weak correlation is merely because of decadal cycles (i.e. -NAO produces N ATL SST tripole configuration, another -NAO tends to follow...but not because of the SSTs, because we're in a -NAO decadal phase) or that they actually help force the pattern again.

[Typhoon Tip]

Here's an excerpt from an AMS paper that explores the relationship between Atlantic SST distribution and the NAO:

 

"...In nature, the NAO-like anomalous atmospheric circulation can generate the tripole SST anomaly through surface heat flux forcing (e.g., Cayan 1992; Battisti etal. 1995; Marshall et al. 2001b). That the tripole anomaly can, in turn, induce a similar atmospheric response suggests a positive dynamic feedback between the atmosphere and the ocean. Such a positive feedback could orchestrate potentially predictable coupled variability on a range of low-frequency timescales (Czaja and Frankignoul 2002; Czaja and Marshall 2001). "

 

In their summary they also suggest that the Tripole of the Atlantic SST is more correlated to the negative phase of the NAO than the positive.  ..which may account for some of the breakdown in overall correlation as Will was mentioning. 

[Ginx snewx]

Here's an excerpt from an AMS paper that explores the relationship between Atlantic SST distribution and the NAO:

 

"...In nature, the NAO-like anomalous atmospheric circulation can generate the tripole SST anomaly through surface heat flux forcing (e.g., Cayan 1992; Battisti etal. 1995; Marshall et al. 2001b). That the tripole anomaly can, in turn, induce a similar atmospheric response suggests a positive dynamic feedback between the atmosphere and the ocean. Such a positive feedback could orchestrate potentially predictable coupled variability on a range of low-frequency timescales (Czaja and Frankignoul 2002; Czaja and Marshall 2001). "

 

In their summary they also suggest that the Tripole of the Atlantic SST is more correlated to the negative phase of the NAO than the positive.  ..which may account for some of the breakdown in overall correlation as Will was mentioning. 

Yes thats the paper I am familiar with, very technical but informative. 

[Ginx snewx]

and I've always questioned the chicken and the egg wrt to seasonal wind stress and whether the SSTs are actually just being redistributed by NAO fluxes.  

I am looking forward to see what transpires the next 6 weeks, that is lots of heat energy available off the US Coast.

[Met1985]

Great read in this thread guys. Thanks for all the info.

[Ginx snewx]

Well Jerry, Adam in the Philly thread said this:

 

'Euro monthlies are saying +EPO/-NAO Dec, ++PNA/-NAO Jan, -EPO/-PNA/-NAO Feb"

 

Looking forward to this bro

 

Dec would be probably dominated with SW flow events but far enough south to be like Dec 07

 

Jan would be cold as a witches tit and a snowfall preservation wonderland with some Miller B action

 

Feb would be your 1961, or 1971 fantasy

 

-EPO ridge dislodging the PV, ridge bridge from the -NAO region straight across the North Pole over into Canada, just like last Feb March.

 

Hope its spot on

[weathafella]

Back from a day of intensity.

It's coming!

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Well Jerry, Adam in the Philly thread said this:

 

'Euro monthlies are saying +EPO/-NAO Dec, ++PNA/-NAO Jan, -EPO/-PNA/-NAO Feb"

 

Looking forward to this bro

 

Dec would be probably dominated with SW flow events but far enough south to be like Dec 07

 

Jan would be cold as a witches tit and a snowfall preservation wonderland with some Miller B action

 

Feb would be your 1961, or 1971 fantasy

 

-EPO ridge dislodging the PV, ridge bridge from the -NAO region straight across the North Pole over into Canada, just like last Feb March.

 

Hope its spot on

 

1961? 

[CoastalWx]

Well Jerry, Adam in the Philly thread said this:

'Euro monthlies are saying +EPO/-NAO Dec, ++PNA/-NAO Jan, -EPO/-PNA/-NAO Feb"

Looking forward to this bro

That's what we were talking about several days ago. The more skillful set comes out today.

Dec would be probably dominated with SW flow events but far enough south to be like Dec 07

Jan would be cold as a witches tit and a snowfall preservation wonderland with some Miller B action

Feb would be your 1961, or 1971 fantasy

-EPO ridge dislodging the PV, ridge bridge from the -NAO region straight across the North Pole over into Canada, just like last Feb March.

Hope its spot on

Thats what we were talking about several days ago. The more skillful set comes out today.

[moneypitmike]

Thats what we were talking about several days ago. The more skillful set comes out today.

 

I'm not sure how that further south placement of the SW flow events means for up here.  Maybe that means Kevin won't pelt, ftw.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure how that further south placement of the SW flow events means for up here.  Maybe that means Kevin won't pelt, ftw.

QPF issues for you.

 

Honestly, who knows what this winter will be like...nevermind placement of SWFE.

[moneypitmike]

QPF issues for you.

 

Honestly, who knows what this winter will be like...nevermind placement of SWFE.

 

I guess this thread can be deleted then. 

[blizzardof96]

Thats what we were talking about several days ago. The more skillful set comes out today.

Any info on march from the LR euro?

[CoastalWx]

Any info on march from the LR euro?

 

Not specifically, but the new Euro SIP seasonal looks tasty with a big ridge over NW Canada and AK with a -NAO. The DJF timeframe even has what may be a PV feature in SE Canada, at least it progs slightly  below normal heights there meaning the PV may reside there from time to time. There is also slight Gulf ridging too which makes me think a weak SE ridge may be trying to make an appearance from time to time.

[toronto blizzard]

Not specifically, but the new Euro SIP seasonal looks tasty with a big ridge over NW Canada and AK with a -NAO. The DJF timeframe even has what may be a PV feature in SE Canada, at least it progs slightly  below normal heights there meaning the PV may reside there from time to time. There is also slight Gulf ridging too which makes me think a weak SE ridge may be trying to make an appearance from time to time.

What about precip?

[CoastalWx]

What about precip?

 

Precip and temps verbatim seemed near normal, but I think those parameters offer the least amount of skill. It's more important to look at the H5 anomalies.

 

We'll see if they hold tough of waffle one way or another. It's early in the game.

[toronto blizzard]

Precip and temps verbatim seemed near normal, but I think those parameters offer the least amount of skill. It's more important to look at the H5 anomalies.

 

We'll see if they hold tough of waffle one way or another. It's early in the game.

You see any red flags so far?

[weathafella]

Well you k ow we're getting closer when Toronto blizzard emerges and asks specifics imby clad.

You know where you heard it first gang.

[CoastalWx]

You see any red flags so far?

 

Nothing I can really pin point this early. If a GOA vortex starts to develop later in October then perhaps I get nervous, but I don't see any glaring flags.

 

I definitely would elevated my excitement if this holds in the October update.

[moneypitmike]

Well you k ow we're getting closer when Toronto blizzard emerges and asks specifics imby clad. You know where you heard it first gang.

I'll be in Toronto tues-fri this week for work . Never been there before. Actually, first time out of Quebec.

[weathafella]

I'll be in Toronto tues-fri this week for work . Never been there before. Actually, first time out of Quebec.

Great city...and you don't have t speak French.

Euro SIPS seem to be in line with ssta.

[Ginx snewx]

I guess this thread can be deleted then.

yeah right lol