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The early speculation on winter 2013-14

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

It was for straight up season snow totals but one thing last winter failed in my opinion was 'enduring snow pack'

For a winter that boasted big totals, I saw bare ground here in Ayer more than 50% of the time.

Contrasting to the mega winter of 95-96, there was snow on the ground for virtually the whole thing, less that one warm up week or two with the Lake's cutters. Right after those the snow came right back and stayed.

We got 20" of snow in an event last year and it was gone in 10 days ... then another 20", gone in 8 days ... it was like that. Interesting.

I'm not complaining ... no. For someone that likes to track significant events in the modeling and experience them unfold, obviously last year rocked!

Get up in elevation and out of that torch area
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Sister lives in Groton.  Looks like a nice area for some good snows/ice.

 

 

Groton is really good...its a bit further NNW than Ayer by a few miles...its getting just into the beginnings of extreme E ORH hills. They have a slight bit of elevaiton in the 300-400 foot range...esp on W side of town. They do very well in CAD events and hold their snowpack quite well.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Groton is really good...its a bit further NNW than Ayer by a few miles...its getting just into the beginnings of extreme E ORH hills. They have a slight bit of elevaiton in the 300-400 foot range...esp on W side of town. They do very well in CAD events and hold their snowpack quite well.

Yeah, they moved there in January and were buried.  They live on the Westford/Dunstable corner though at about 200'.  Pain in the ass the get to though.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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I'd take them over Tolland in winter on average. Decent rad spot...decent CAD...and a solid snowfall avg in the low 60s.

 

 

Ayer is right in the heart of the low dew drain you can get in those good CAD set ups.

 

You can't rule out the microclimate atop the Tolland Massif though. Obs are sketchy up there.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Ayer is right in the heart of the low dew drain you can get in those good CAD set ups.

 

You can't rule out the microclimate atop the Tolland Massif though. Obs are sketchy up there.

 

Yeah that area got ripped in the Dec '08 icestorm...one of the few low elevation areas in MA that did in addition to further northeast like Chelmsford/Tyngsboro/Andover/Haverhill....there was a distinct line for the ice in those low elevation spots right from like Littleton to Carlisle to Tewksbury.

 

That line is very frequently a line of significant ice (say >0.2" accretion) versus just marginal glaze in a lot of the CAD events...you notice a big jump to the N and NW of Littleton.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Yeah that area got ripped in the Dec '08 icestorm...one of the few low elevation areas in MA that did in addition to further northeast like Chelmsford/Tyngsboro/Andover/Haverhill....there was a distinct line for the ice in those low elevation spots right from like Littleton to Carlisle to Tewksbury.

 

That line is very frequently a line of significant ice (say >0.2" accretion) versus just marginal glaze in a lot of the CAD events...you notice a big jump to the N and NW of Littleton.

 

The difference between 30 and glaze and the 34 and rain like Tolland.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Most of the interior melted down during that storm, lol.

 

I remember channel 5 had all night news coverage in that storm...they didn't take a break between midnight and their 430AM early news...maybe like a half hour break or something.

But I had it on around 1-2am in the morning and they showed live shot outside near Copley Square and it was a total whiteout with awesome dendrites...I admit it made me jealous how nice the snow there looked. I knew it was that coastal front giving them all the enhancement. Luckily I still ended up with about 12 inches as being on the east slope of the hills, we managed a little orgraphic assistance to avoid the disaster that transpired in Tip's area and to the west in the CT Valley....but man, i was jealous of BOS getting 18"+ and those perfect wind whipped dendrites on the camera.

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joey2002

joey2002

Posted
Posted

I had a winter client there. They usually did very well. They prob avg at least 63-64" per year with like 1100 feet of elevation.

 

Yeah, Union is really high up in elevation, I think some spots are over 1300 feet.  Least populated town in CT though... so very few reports. 

 

You should tell your clients there to become weather spotters!  :santa:

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
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I remember channel 5 had all night news coverage in that storm...they didn't take a break between midnight and their 430AM early news...maybe like a half hour break or something.

But I had it on around 1-2am in the morning and they showed live shot outside near Copley Square and it was a total whiteout with awesome dendrites...I admit it made me jealous how nice the snow there looked. I knew it was that coastal front giving them all the enhancement. Luckily I still ended up with about 12 inches as being on the east slope of the hills, we managed a little orgraphic assistance to avoid the disaster that transpired in Tip's area and to the west in the CT Valley....but man, i was jealous of BOS getting 18"+ and those perfect wind whipped dendrites on the camera.

 

The Boxing Day storm is going to be the focal point of my thesis research.  A lot of interesting things happened with this system.  The obvious ones being the two snowfall maxima that occurred (Berkshires & extreme E MA).  Then there is the fact that portions of the interior were staring at starry skies while Boston was getting buried.  

 

Something else that is interesting that I think I have found is that the maxima in precipitation occurred to the southeast of the coastal front.  Which goes against conventional wisdom and previous work.  It has been shown that in storms with established coastal fronts that there tends to be a precipitation maximum to the northwest of the coastal front.  But in this storm, it appears that the opposite occurred.

 

The obvious goal is to prove this and find out why.  Likely using the wrf computer model that we run at school.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The Boxing Day storm is going to be the focal point of my thesis research.  A lot of interesting things happened with this system.  The obvious ones being the two snowfall maxima that occurred (Berkshires & extreme E MA).  Then there is the fact that portions of the interior were staring at starry skies while Boston was getting buried.  

 

Something else that is interesting that I think I have found is that the maxima in precipitation occurred to the southeast of the coastal front.  Which goes against conventional wisdom and previous work.  It has been shown that in storms with established coastal fronts that there tends to be a precipitation maximum to the northwest of the coastal front.  But in this storm, it appears that the opposite occurred.

 

The obvious goal is to prove this and find out why.  Likely using the wrf computer model that we run at school.

 

I mentioned this before, but that storm has strong low level frontogenesis...not all from a CF, but in the 950-850 layer and this conv area was near the canal. Above that layer was an unstable layer with the dryslot.

 

But, in my experience, you don't always get a precip max NW of the cstl front..you get a snowfall max. In fact, many times areas of SE MA will have the most QPF, but lack in snowfall.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
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I mentioned this before, but that storm has strong low level frontogenesis...not all from a CF, but in the 950-850 layer and this conv area was near the canal. Above that layer was an unstable layer with the dryslot.

 

But, in my experience, you don't always get a precip max NW of the cstl front..you get a snowfall max. In fact, many times areas of SE MA will have the most QPF, but lack in snowfall.

 

Another thought that I have entertained is filling in Massachusetts & Cape Cod Bay with land and seeing what this would do to the precipitation distribution during a nor'easter.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Another thought that I have entertained is filling in Massachusetts & Cape Cod Bay with land and seeing what this would do to the precipitation distribution during a nor'easter.  

 

More often than not, you see a small QPF max in some storms along the Rt 3 corridor and even near the Blue Hills. This occurs in both rain and snow events, not always...but something I've noticed. I mean if you have strong low level surface winds of 30-40kts or higher...you are gonna get convergence onshore and the terrain gets to about 200' in spots. That's plenty if the low level thermal profile in unstable which many times it is in the winter.

 

But getting back to that storm, the dryslot was actually hinted at fairly well. I don't think we thought it would be as drastic, but I remember the QFP mins near NE CT and the little max zone the mesos had near SE MA and over by the Berks.

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