dryslot Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 You would have to live from NYC south to prefer 09-10 over last winter, I would assume. The Feb/Mar couplet last winter in New England beat anything 09-10 brought. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 To me, last winter vs 2009-10 is like comparing 2001-02 with 2002-03. No contest. Last winters late rush with a historic blizzard wins in a huge landslide. I'd gamble on '09-'10 again...we'd prob do a lot better if we got the longwave pattern again but then re-did the random small scale interference stuff. But obviously when choosing in hindsight, '09-'10 is horrendous versus last year. Last year is probably a top 5 winter in the past 50 years for a chunk of SNE E and northeast of HFD...even for BOS it prob is top 20% in past 50 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I'd gamble on '09-'10 again...we'd prob do a lot better if we got the longwave pattern again but then re-did the random small scale interference stuff. But obviously when choosing in hindsight, '09-'10 is horrendous versus last year. Last year is probably a top 5 winter in the past 50 years for a chunk of SNE E and northeast of HFD...even for BOS it prob is top 20% in past 50 years. South of the pike, definitely would do 09-10 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 South of the pike, definitely would do 09-10 again. I dunno, it really wasn't that good until you got to far SW CT. Even places like HFD to PVD didn't have a good winter. In fact, HFD/BDL got screwed worse than BOS that winter since they missed the 12/20/09 storm and pretty much got shafted on the 1/3/10 retro storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I dunno, it really wasn't that good until you got to far SW CT. Even places like HFD to PVD didn't have a good winter. In fact, HFD/BDL got screwed worse than BOS that winter since they missed the 12/20/09 storm and pretty much got shafted on the 1/3/10 retro storm. I meant the general longwave pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Last winter wasn't that great for me. You guys in CT/MA made out much better than me. Really, 10/11 would be the best. Ahhh...sweet memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Warm October=warm winter? Can you show that correlation based on history?Also, what parts of October? Octobers 1978, 1995 and 2000 were toasty. Not so much the ensuing winters. Certainly cold Octobers do not correlate to cold winters. Examples are October 1972, 1974, 1979, 1988, and 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Looks like a -NAO/-EPO/Weak -PNA/-AO type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Looks like a -NAO/-EPO/Weak -PNA/-AO type of deal. It looks like 2010-2011...but I doubt that model has much if any skill whatsoever. Purely for entertainment purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Saw that posted over on AccuWX, someone also posted a precip map, below average in east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Last winter wasn't that great for me. You guys in CT/MA made out much better than me. Really, 10/11 would be the best. Ahhh...sweet memories. Likewise. Last winter had 103% of my avg snowfall but only 82% of snow depth days, and snowpack is a big thing in NNE. 2010-11 was more ordinary than great - SDD 109% of avg and only the short-lived 15" dump on April Fools kept it from being a bit subnormal for snowfall. Two years earlier produced only 1" more snowfall, but 749 more SDD (156% of avg) and depth peaking at 49" after the big dump of Feb 22-23/09. (2010-11 peaked at 28" on 2/28.) Maybe these past 4 winters have been, in total, a regression to the mean after 2+ big boys, 2/07 thru 2/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 ENSO areas warming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Well this is a first. Jerry, the squirrels clearly buy into your SST theory..lol. The squirrels are eating the buds off my wife's mums. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Well this is a first. Jerry, the squirrels clearly buy into your SST theory..lol. The squirrels are eating the buds off my wife's mums. WTF? 1976-1977 en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 1976-1977 en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 1976-1977 en route. wouldn't that be something. But if my memory is correct, it was a fairly dry winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 Well this is a first. Jerry, the squirrels clearly buy into your SST theory..lol. The squirrels are eating the buds off my wife's mums. WTF? 1976-1977 en route. Don't trust the squirrels. Trust the NPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Don't trust the squirrels. Trust the NPAC. Since when do they destroy those types of flowers? Not to mention ripping the trees apart to build nests. They suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 Don't trust the squirrels. Trust the NPAC. Since when do they destroy those types of flowers? Not to mention ripping the trees apart to build nests. They suck. You should get an outdoor cat. That will keep them away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 wouldn't that be something. But if my memory is correct, it was a fairly dry winter? It was dry SW of eastern New England..so yes, down in that region it was below avg precip. But eastern SNE up into Maine had slightly above average precip that winter...which is why there was also a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Since when do they destroy those types of flowers? Not to mention ripping the trees apart to build nests. They suck. Maybe it's the bunnies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Maybe it's the bunnies lol You have a strange rodent fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 ENSO areas warming... this is the link you want Jerry for watching warming/cooling http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 You have a strange rodent fetish. Bunnies aren't rodents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Well this is a first. Jerry, the squirrels clearly buy into your SST theory..lol. The squirrels are eating the buds off my wife's mums. WTF?Precious few acorns . You lucked out this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 this is the link you want Jerry for watching warming/cooling http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html Yeah Mitch that shows it nicely. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I'd gamble on '09-'10 again...we'd prob do a lot better if we got the longwave pattern again but then re-did the random small scale interference stuff. But obviously when choosing in hindsight, '09-'10 is horrendous versus last year. Last year is probably a top 5 winter in the past 50 years for a chunk of SNE E and northeast of HFD...even for BOS it prob is top 20% in past 50 years. It was for straight up season snow totals but one thing last winter failed in my opinion was 'enduring snow pack' For a winter that boasted big totals, I saw bare ground here in Ayer more than 50% of the time. Contrasting to the mega winter of 95-96, there was snow on the ground for virtually the whole thing, less that one warm up week or two with the Lake's cutters. Right after those the snow came right back and stayed. We got 20" of snow in an event last year and it was gone in 10 days ... then another 20", gone in 8 days ... it was like that. Interesting. I'm not complaining ... no. For someone that likes to track significant events in the modeling and experience them unfold, obviously last year rocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 SOI has dropped which is probably partly responsible for any warming, but I wouldn't get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 It was for straight up season snow totals but one thing last winter failed in my opinion was 'enduring snow pack' For a winter that boasted big totals, I saw bare ground here in Ayer more than 50% of the time. Contrasting to the mega winter of 95-96, there was snow on the ground for virtually the whole thing, less that one warm up week or two with the Lake's cutters. Right after those the snow came right back and stayed. We got 20" of snow in an event last year and it was gone in 10 days ... then another 20", gone in 8 days ... it was like that. Interesting. I'm not complaining ... no. For someone that likes to track significant events in the modeling and experience them unfold, obviously last year rocked! Most of the snow was in February and March last winter so that explains the lack of a big snowpack in 12-13. We had our biggest storms on 2/9, 3/8 and 3/21...the latter two are entirely too late for snow retention. 95-96 had most of its snow in December and January. We had the early December MECS and then some snow before the holidays, followed by the 1/7 blizzard. That was followed by a torch but it was still early to build more snowpack,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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