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The early speculation on winter 2013-14


weathafella

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To me, last winter vs 2009-10 is like comparing 2001-02 with 2002-03. No contest. Last winters late rush with a historic blizzard wins in a huge landslide.

 

 

I'd gamble on '09-'10 again...we'd prob do a lot better if we got the longwave pattern again but then re-did the random small scale interference stuff.

 

But obviously when choosing in hindsight, '09-'10 is horrendous versus last year. Last year is probably a top 5 winter in the past 50 years for a chunk of SNE E and northeast of HFD...even for BOS it prob is top 20% in past 50 years.

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I'd gamble on '09-'10 again...we'd prob do a lot better if we got the longwave pattern again but then re-did the random small scale interference stuff.

 

But obviously when choosing in hindsight, '09-'10 is horrendous versus last year. Last year is probably a top 5 winter in the past 50 years for a chunk of SNE E and northeast of HFD...even for BOS it prob is top 20% in past 50 years.

 

South of the pike, definitely would do 09-10 again.

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South of the pike, definitely would do 09-10 again.

 

 

I dunno, it really wasn't that good until you got to far SW CT. Even places like HFD to PVD didn't have a good winter. In fact, HFD/BDL got screwed worse than BOS that winter since they missed the 12/20/09 storm and pretty much got shafted on the 1/3/10 retro storm.

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I dunno, it really wasn't that good until you got to far SW CT. Even places like HFD to PVD didn't have a good winter. In fact, HFD/BDL got screwed worse than BOS that winter since they missed the 12/20/09 storm and pretty much got shafted on the 1/3/10 retro storm.

 

I meant the general longwave pattern

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Warm October=warm winter? Can you show that correlation based on history?

Also, what parts of October?

Octobers 1978, 1995 and 2000 were toasty. Not so much the ensuing winters.

Certainly cold Octobers do not correlate to cold winters. Examples are October 1972, 1974, 1979, 1988, and 1997.

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Last winter wasn't that great for me. You guys in CT/MA made out much better than me. Really, 10/11 would be the best. Ahhh...sweet memories.

 

Likewise.  Last winter had 103% of my avg snowfall but only 82% of snow depth days, and snowpack is a big thing in NNE.  2010-11 was more ordinary than great - SDD 109% of avg and only the short-lived 15" dump on April Fools kept it from being a bit subnormal for snowfall.  Two years earlier produced only 1" more snowfall, but 749 more SDD (156% of avg) and depth peaking at 49" after the big dump of Feb 22-23/09.  (2010-11 peaked at 28" on 2/28.)  Maybe these past 4 winters have been, in total, a regression to the mean after 2+ big boys, 2/07 thru 2/09.

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wouldn't that be something.  But if my memory is correct, it was a fairly dry winter?

 

 

It was dry SW of eastern New England..so yes, down in that region it was below avg precip. But eastern SNE up into Maine had slightly above average precip that winter...which is why there was also a lot of snow.

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I'd gamble on '09-'10 again...we'd prob do a lot better if we got the longwave pattern again but then re-did the random small scale interference stuff.

 

But obviously when choosing in hindsight, '09-'10 is horrendous versus last year. Last year is probably a top 5 winter in the past 50 years for a chunk of SNE E and northeast of HFD...even for BOS it prob is top 20% in past 50 years.

 

 

It was for straight up season snow totals but one thing last winter failed in my opinion was 'enduring snow pack' 

 

For a winter that boasted big totals, I saw bare ground here in Ayer more than 50% of the time. 

 

Contrasting to the mega winter of 95-96, there was snow on the ground for virtually the whole thing, less that one warm up week or two with the Lake's cutters.  Right after those the snow came right back and stayed.   

 

We got 20" of snow in an event last year and it was gone in 10 days ... then another 20", gone in 8 days ... it was like that.  Interesting. 

 

I'm not complaining ... no.  For someone that likes to track significant events in the modeling and experience them unfold, obviously last year rocked!  

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It was for straight up season snow totals but one thing last winter failed in my opinion was 'enduring snow pack'

For a winter that boasted big totals, I saw bare ground here in Ayer more than 50% of the time.

Contrasting to the mega winter of 95-96, there was snow on the ground for virtually the whole thing, less that one warm up week or two with the Lake's cutters. Right after those the snow came right back and stayed.

We got 20" of snow in an event last year and it was gone in 10 days ... then another 20", gone in 8 days ... it was like that. Interesting.

I'm not complaining ... no. For someone that likes to track significant events in the modeling and experience them unfold, obviously last year rocked!

Most of the snow was in February and March last winter so that explains the lack of a big snowpack in 12-13. We had our biggest storms on 2/9, 3/8 and 3/21...the latter two are entirely too late for snow retention.

95-96 had most of its snow in December and January. We had the early December MECS and then some snow before the holidays, followed by the 1/7 blizzard. That was followed by a torch but it was still early to build more snowpack,.

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