The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

My favorite winter...1993-94 gave BOS 96 inches.

Cfs this morning (daily, not 10 day average) is a torch October thru December but plenty cold January thru March.

 

I loved that winter. Also, the CFS is pretty persistent on a colder/snowier 2/3's of the winter (just like earlier this year). 

[weathafella]

Wow...just wow!

Full speed ahead!

[ORH_wxman]

That is still crazy warm south of the Aleutions. I'd bet that still registers as a -PDO.

[weathafella]

That is still crazy warm south of the Aleutions. I'd bet that still registers as a -PDO.

Maybe. But wouldn't you run with this ssta configuration in a heartbeat for winter?

[ORH_wxman]

Maybe. But wouldn't you run with this ssta configuration in a heartbeat for winter?

 

 

Eh, its alright. Warmer water in the western ENSO regions is nice. Nothing really screams out though on this map...except the warmth south of the Aleutians. Which makes me wonder if we get an Aleutian ridge this winter and not a PNA ridge. Aleutian ridges are fine...we have had some great winters with them (2010-2011, 2008-2009, 1970-1971 etc...heck even 1993-1994 had more of an Aleutian ridge and not a PNA ridge...it was just on 'roids up well north of AK))...but it makes it semi-dangerous if they aren't poleward enough and no NAO help.

[CoastalWx]

Warmer water in the ENSO regions is a much better ridge builder than warmer waters in the Aleutians. The warmer water near AK is a product of the pattern and lack of TC recurves. Get some TC recurves and watch that change. Water that is in the 80s like the ENSO regions is capable of releasing a lot more energy to building a ridge than water near 40F. JMHO, but warmer water near AK sometimes brings up the chicken or the egg argument when driving the pattern. I think it's more of a product of the pattern...but it may help sustain some ridging if it forms. 

[Typhoon Tip]

          BANK IT!

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The CFSv2 continues to show a Harsh Cold and Snowy January and Modest Snowfall in February for the NE/MD-ATL. 

[weathafella]

With the euro ensembles wanting to put low heights in the Aleutians and ridging in the GOAK Wills concerns may be alleviated.

[Damage In Tolland]

Please wait until mid October. Until them it's like playing pin the tail on the donkey

[joey2002]

Please wait until mid October. Until them it's like playing pin the tail on the donkey

 

[weathafella]

Please wait until mid October. Until them it's like playing pin the tail on the donkey

My theory relates to September GOAK. If the mean September GOAK is as it is now, we should do very well.

[weathafella]

Please wait until mid October. Until them it's like playing pin the tail on the donkey

Warm October=warm winter? Can you show that correlation based on history?

[weathafella]

After a brief few days of warmth, Cfs today (daily, not 10 day average) shows an extreme winter December........cold and way above normal qpf. January is AOB normal in temps and normal qpf. Feb shows cold and subnormal qpf.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

After a brief few days of warmth, Cfs today (daily, not 10 day average) shows an extreme winter December........cold and way above normal qpf. January is AOB normal in temps and normal qpf. Feb shows cold and subnormal qpf.

Yup. The CFS has two Major Snowfall events in January and one Big on in December.

[Typhoon Tip]

i was just noticing that the 50hPa sigma level QBO appears to be switching phase from negative to positive. 

 

2013  -9.65  -8.66  -8.32  -5.71  -3.60  1.99  5.77     (5.77 is the August value)

 

For those unaware, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a high altitude wind variation that has a periodicity that's ~ 12 to 30 months, that exists over southern latitudes.  

 

These periods are broken up into positive and negative QBO phase states.  

 

The positive phase of the QBO correlates to a strengthening of the ambient PV ...

The negative phase of the QBO correlates to a relaxation tendency of the PV as well as SSW events.  

 

Naturally the science concludes that winters for the middle latitudes would tend to over-perform for cold and consequential storminess during the negative phase. 

 

However, I was looking at the entire data set that goes back to 1979, as it is provided by Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

 

What leaps out for the astute is that some of the top winters in New England did not fit very well with that theoretical conclusion.  1995-1996, for example, maintained a positive QBO during the autumn and early winter, after spending the previous spring and summer unwavering in positive.  Yet, gradually from N to S, that winter (..and quite early for central and N NE at that (mid Nov)) as we know was anomalously cold and snowy.   I was attending classes as an undergraduate at U-Mass/Lowell, and I recall a snow and sleet even prior to Thanks Giving, and then not seeing bare ground again until the mega thaw of late January.  I believe 2004-2005, and 2000-2001 were good winters for the interior, and those years, too demoed positive QBO. 

 

There are enough distractions in the overall data-set to first off conclude that the correlation is not ideal.  There are a couple of deeper questions that also leap out at me.  

1) Is there a "tolerance threshold" for QBO, where the intensity of the wave need be considered in the statistics of the deep layer AO domain?  

2) Is there a time lag?

[weathafella]

i was just noticing that the 50hPa sigma level QBO appears to be switching phase from negative to positive. 

 

2013  -9.65  -8.66  -8.32  -5.71  -3.60  1.99  5.77     (5.77 is the August value)

 

For those unaware, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a high altitude wind variation that has a periodicity that's ~ 12 to 30 months, that exists over southern latitudes.  

 

These periods are broken up into positive and negative QBO phase states.  

 

The positive phase of the QBO correlates to a strengthening of the ambient PV ...

The negative phase of the QBO correlates to a relaxation tendency of the PV as well as SSW events.  

 

Naturally the science concludes that winters for the middle latitudes would tend to over-perform for cold and consequential storminess during the negative phase. 

 

However, I was looking at the entire data set that goes back to 1979, as it is provided by Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

 

What leaps out for the astute is that some of the top winters in New England did not fit very well with that theoretical conclusion.  1995-1996, for example, maintained a positive QBO during the autumn and early winter, after spending the previous spring and summer unwavering in positive.  Yet, gradually from N to S, that winter (..and quite early for central and N NE at that (mid Nov)) as we know was anomalously cold and snowy.   I was attending classes as an undergraduate at U-Mass/Lowell, and I recall a snow and sleet even prior to Thanks Giving, and then not seeing bare ground again until the mega thaw of late January.  I believe 2004-2005, and 2000-2001 were good winters for the interior, and those years, too demoed positive QBO. 

 

There are enough distractions in the overall data-set to first off conclude that the correlation is not ideal.  There are a couple of deeper questions that also leap out at me.  

1) Is there a "tolerance threshold" for QBO, where the intensity of the wave need be considered in the statistics of the deep layer AO domain?  

2) Is there a time lag?

John, what jumps out to me is the best match 2008. I'd run with that inter...lol.

[mitchnick]

i was just noticing that the 50hPa sigma level QBO appears to be switching phase from negative to positive. 

 

2013  -9.65  -8.66  -8.32  -5.71  -3.60  1.99  5.77     (5.77 is the August value)

 

For those unaware, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a high altitude wind variation that has a periodicity that's ~ 12 to 30 months, that exists over southern latitudes.  

 

These periods are broken up into positive and negative QBO phase states.  

 

The positive phase of the QBO correlates to a strengthening of the ambient PV ...

The negative phase of the QBO correlates to a relaxation tendency of the PV as well as SSW events.  

 

Naturally the science concludes that winters for the middle latitudes would tend to over-perform for cold and consequential storminess during the negative phase. 

 

However, I was looking at the entire data set that goes back to 1979, as it is provided by Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

 

What leaps out for the astute is that some of the top winters in New England did not fit very well with that theoretical conclusion.  1995-1996, for example, maintained a positive QBO during the autumn and early winter, after spending the previous spring and summer unwavering in positive.  Yet, gradually from N to S, that winter (..and quite early for central and N NE at that (mid Nov)) as we know was anomalously cold and snowy.   I was attending classes as an undergraduate at U-Mass/Lowell, and I recall a snow and sleet even prior to Thanks Giving, and then not seeing bare ground again until the mega thaw of late January.  I believe 2004-2005, and 2000-2001 were good winters for the interior, and those years, too demoed positive QBO. 

 

There are enough distractions in the overall data-set to first off conclude that the correlation is not ideal.  There are a couple of deeper questions that also leap out at me.  

1) Is there a "tolerance threshold" for QBO, where the intensity of the wave need be considered in the statistics of the deep layer AO domain?  

2) Is there a time lag?

have to look at 30mb numbers too, don't you?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[weathafella]

have to look at 30mb numbers too, don't you?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

2008 again.

[powderfreak]

I'd take 2008-09 in a heartbeat. J.Spin had 179" that winter at 500ft elevation. 90+ inches at BTV. Around 340" I think at Stowe/Mansfield. Solid snow year.

[mitchnick]

2008 again.

I'll give you 2008 and raise you one (2009!)

[weathafella]

I'll give you 2008 and raise you one (2009!)

I'll see you and raise you to 2010. I think we'll call before 2011-12...lol.

[weathafella]

What's striking to me looking at 7 day ssta change is the + in all niño regions. Weak niño is not out of the question.

[weathafella]

Full speed ahead!

[J.Spin]

I'd take 2008-09 in a heartbeat. J.Spin had 179" that winter at 500ft elevation. 90+ inches at BTV. Around 340" I think at Stowe/Mansfield. Solid snow year.

 

Agreed, solidly above average here in the Winooski Valley; I think of 2008-2009 (179.4”) as the little brother of 2007-2008 (203.2”).  Both of those were La Niña-style winters as I recall?  I seem to remember us being in the moisture train pretty frequently, and there were plenty of SWFEs around.

[Nor'easterblizzard]

Both 08/09 and 09/10 were nice here. I'd say 09/10 was a little better, but I'd take either over last winter.

[dryslot]

We don't need another winter 09-10 up here thank you very much

[OKpowdah]

The relationship between the QBO and the boreal winter extratropical pattern is a little more involved than we try to make it out to be. And stats on the QBO using the 30mb index are really not all that robust. I'll try to do some sort of winter outlook with emphasis on interaction between the QBO, ENSO, and the north Pacific. Pretty interesting stuff.

[weathafella]

To me, last winter vs 2009-10 is like comparing 2001-02 with 2002-03. No contest. Last winters late rush with a historic blizzard wins in a huge landslide.

[powderfreak]

To me, last winter vs 2009-10 is like comparing 2001-02 with 2002-03. No contest. Last winters late rush with a historic blizzard wins in a huge landslide.

You would have to live from NYC south to prefer 09-10 over last winter, I would assume. The Feb/Mar couplet last winter in New England beat anything 09-10 brought.