Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The early speculation on winter 2013-14


weathafella

Recommended Posts

You should ask Brian how many times he ended winter for bdr

 

Hey, we even had some talking of another run at futility for BOS back in late January this past winter.

 

I hope people aren't so quick to judge a season barely halfway through next time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

How much did BDL get this year?  I ended up with just over 90"... the crazy March storm that dumped over 20" in NE CT really helped.

Looks like "only" 56.9". There were several events in which northern Hartford County didn't do so well compared to the rest of the state.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey, we even had some talking of another run at futility for BOS back in late January this past winter.

 

I hope people aren't so quick to judge a season barely halfway through next time.

 

Do you know if there is Hurrell daily NAO data online?  CPC has daily numbers in a file but can't find anything on Hurrell's site.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Well if you're reading ongoing thread of summer you now know that I'm going all in for a huge winter with epic snow and cold......maybe end to end but I need a bit more details. I'm liking the early signs and will give more details as summer gets later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey, we even had some talking of another run at futility for BOS back in late January this past winter.

 

I hope people aren't so quick to judge a season barely halfway through next time.

I def did....i just can't stand a season with 10 inches of snow (as a snow lover) by late January, perhaps another 10 year stint in SFL would get me to appreciate every flake or inch but man i can't take those slow starts or 5 rainstorms in december

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like "only" 56.9". There were several events in which northern Hartford County didn't do so well compared to the rest of the state.

I didnt realize that north central ct got the royal screw job relatively speaking this year. 57 for bdl/62 for ryan and 100 for blizz and coventry damnn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I def did....i just can't stand a season with 10 inches of snow (as a snow lover) by late January, perhaps another 10 year stint in SFL would get me to appreciate every flake or inch but man i can't take those slow starts or 5 rainstorms in december

 

 

Its silly to write off a season with two of the biggest 3 snowfall climo months still to go. I think people have gotten swayed by the big Decembers recently and the string of poor Marches before this year. This year showed climo punching back hard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I didnt realize that north central ct got the royal screw job relatively speaking this year. 57 for bdl/62 for ryan and 100 for blizz and coventry damnn.

They missed the death band in the Blizz and they also missed out on much of the March snowbomb..i think ryan only had 6 inches in the march storm while we had 22 or so

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was just looking at Euro SIPS that came out recently and it is still quite neutral in the ENSO department by mid-autumn. It looks like it ever so slightly bumped toward El Nino, but still quite weak with barely positive neutral.

 

FWIW last year at this time the Euro SIPS and most other guidance were showing a moderate to strong El Nino by fall...which of course never materialized into any El Nino at all. Just a warm neutral. Still pretty early in the ENSO department, but I'm getting more confident that we see neutral...or if any Nino does develop, it would be weak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was just looking at Euro SIPS that came out recently and it is still quite neutral in the ENSO department by mid-autumn. It looks like it ever so slightly bumped toward El Nino, but still quite weak with barely positive neutral.

 

FWIW last year at this time the Euro SIPS and most other guidance were showing a moderate to strong El Nino by fall...which of course never materialized into any El Nino at all. Just a warm neutral. Still pretty early in the ENSO department, but I'm getting more confident that we see neutral...or if any Nino does develop, it would be weak.

June/July 2012 mei number was +1.139...It rose from -1.045 from Dec/Jan...it looked like an el nino was developing but it faded  fast...this weeks sst is -0.3 for nino 3.4...mei is just into positive range...This year's enso is starting out neutral and is forcast to stay that way...many years with a similar oni index became el nino's by years end....I like 1981 for this summer...it stayed neutral thru the next winter...it wasn't the hottest summer on record but it did have a long torrid heat wave in July...

if an el nino develops the analogs would be..

year.......

2006...

1951...

1968...

If it stays neutral the analogs would be...

2001...

1996...

1981...

if la nina develops the analogs would be...

1984...

1967...

If a strong el nino develops the analogs would be...

1963...

1965...

1972...

1997...

1986...

2009...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't expect the PDO to be that great....but perhaps it goes mildly positive. But that goes against its propensity in non-big El Ninos since 2007.

I realize it's a snapshot but the best 7/1 match including the equatorial regions is 2003.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't expect the PDO to be that great....but perhaps it goes mildly positive. But that goes against its propensity in non-big El Ninos since 2007.

I think the PDO will back off a bit from its current positive state. This should be temporary unless we get a big Niño, in my opinion, which the OHC somewhat supports but surface warming is lagging. I am not sure I'd forecast a big Pacific pattern this winter due to +PDO in the mold of 02-03 or 60-61.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kind of OT but I guess it's the best place to post this. I was doing some work on climo data for BDR. They have already had 8 snowstorms deliver 6" or > of snow in a 24 hour period since the beginning of the decade (winter of 2010-11). They had a total of 3 storms that did that in the entire 1980's. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kind of OT but I guess it's the best place to post this. I was doing some work on climo data for BDR. They have already had 8 snowstorms deliver 6" or > of snow in a 24 hour period since the beginning of the decade (winter of 2010-11). They had a total of 3 storms that did that in the entire 1980's. :lol:

 

 

Most people don't realize how bad the 1980s were for snow around our region. It wasn't as bad down in the Mid-Atlantic though...it was actually decent in some places down there. But for us, it was a horrific decade for snow. The 1920s sucked too, but the '80s take the cake.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most people don't realize how bad the 1980s were for snow around our region. It wasn't as bad down in the Mid-Atlantic though...it was actually decent in some places down there. But for us, it was a horrific decade for snow. The 1920s sucked too, but the '80s take the cake.

The data I have on the spreadsheet only goes back to the 1960s which happens to be the best decade for BDR. 209 measurable events (as opposed to 143 in the 80s) including thirteen 6" or > in 24 hours. Interestingly, only one of them was 12" or greater. Of course, events are often split between days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most people don't realize how bad the 1980s were for snow around our region. It wasn't as bad down in the Mid-Atlantic though...it was actually decent in some places down there. But for us, it was a horrific decade for snow. The 1920s sucked too, but the '80s take the cake.

 

The 80s were Farmington's worst decade of 14 on record (1890s and current are partials) with 75.6" avg, LT avg is 88.9".  Next lowest decades are 1910s, 40s, and 2010s (so far), all between 80 and 81".  Except for the 23" on March 14-15, 1984, Farmington had no events larger than 13" for the entire 10 years, easily worst for big snows of any decade.  The decade included the leaast snowy winter (80-81) of 121 and 7th least (82-83) while having only one winter (81-82 at 26th) in the top 35.  Also, the split-decades 79-80 was 2nd lowest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...