Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Well if Nino got strong enough to be officially weak, then Nino would become a big player. It would enhance the probability of PNA ridging and potentially get a weak STJ going. Those factors could be enormous for snowfall potential. Yep things are lining up, lets see if Old man winter has the key, he sure is pumped. The consistency of LR modeling since May is pretty amazing, be very dis if it suddenly switched but of course that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Yep things are lining up, lets see if Old man winter has the key, he sure is pumped. The consistency of LR modeling since May is pretty amazing, be very dis if it suddenly switched but of course that can happen. I'm not convinced at all we get even really close to a weak Nino. We'll see how the next month goes, but its way late IMHO to get a Nino going before winter. Regardless, hopefully we see some positive signs in the pattern this autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I'm not convinced at all we get even really close to a weak Nino. We'll see how the next month goes, but its way late IMHO to get a Nino going before winter. Regardless, hopefully we see some positive signs in the pattern this autumn. There's still a lot of cold water in the ENSO regions and back towards Baja California, signs of a -PDO/La Nina regime. I'd like to see semblance of a Kelvin wave as well as more cold water in the Aleutians before I buy a +ENSO/+PDO/+PNA pattern this coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 Best match from past yeqrs appears to be neqr the same date in 2003. That winter was brutally cold with a huge KU in early December and the coldest January in 115 yeqrs at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Noyes has locked in an early winter lol http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2013/08/its-augustbut-cold-air-is-brewing-in-the-arctic.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Noyes has locked in an early winter lol http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2013/08/its-augustbut-cold-air-is-brewing-in-the-arctic.html Well to say he locked it in is a misnomer , Early to say for sure, but the signals are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 Well to say he locked it in is a misnomer , Early to say for sure, but the signals are there. Belly to belly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 The early and southward extent snow and ice cover is the 2nd most imp piece to puzzle. Pacific is # 1..NAO doesn't matter nearly that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 The early and southward extent snow and ice cover is the 2nd most imp piece to puzzle. Pacific is # 1..NAO doesn't matter nearly that much This statement (re nao) has been proven wrong repeatedly with real evidence. It would be like me telling people: take this med....I saw it work 2 years ago despite evidence based science saying the choice should be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 This statement (re nao) has been proven wrong repeatedly with real evidence. It would be like me telling people: take this med....I saw it work 2 years ago despite evidence based science saying the choice should be something else. We can get away with a good winter w/o a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 We can get away with a good winter w/o a -NAO. Yes. Our latitude helps. I'd prefer a neutral -NAO on the whole with a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Belly to belly? back to back, I am liking your call more every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Yes. Our latitude helps. I'd prefer a neutral -NAO on the whole with a +PNA. snow changing to rain scenario, you especially want neg nao to keep the track offshore otherwise you deal with cc cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 1993-94 nao was + bit ao I believe was very neg. positive ao and we're cooked usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 1993-94 nao was + bit ao I believe was very neg. positive ao and we're cooked usually. Yea forgot about 93, very negative in Feb last year Jer on the AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Well maybe Kevin is thinking Bering Sea area. Perhaps Will can find an example of a lousy vortex up there and we had an ok winter, but low heights up there will Chinook us for the most part. Now if you are thinking a -PNA is a lousy setup, that is not entirely correct. Look no further to our recent La Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 snow changing to rain scenario, you especially want neg nao to keep the track offshore otherwise you deal with cc cutters But too much -NAO and track is suppressed. I'll take my chances on an active pattern over whiffing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 But too much -NAO and track is suppressed. I'll take my chances on an active pattern over whiffing.no way, you cleaned up Dec 09,the only reason we missed out on Feb 10 was the extraordinary ocean storm parked to our east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Well maybe Kevin is thinking Bering Sea area. Perhaps Will can find an example of a lousy vortex up there and we had an ok winter, but low heights up there will Chinook us for the most part. Now if you are thinking a -PNA is a lousy setup, that is not entirely correct. Look no further to our recent La Ninas. Our best patterns (esp in early winter) occur with a -PNA/-NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Our best patterns (esp in early winter) occur with a -PNA/-NAO. I mean come on, any body who lives in coastal NE just needs to look at this chart and cross reference their favorite winter storm and then tell me they want a neutral nAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 But too much -NAO and track is suppressed. I'll take my chances on an active pattern over whiffing. the biggest blizzard of your life Feb 1978 was with an extremely low -NAO, actually the lowest NAO in winter ever I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I mean come on, any body who lives in coastal NE just needs to look at this chart and cross reference their favorite winter storm and then tell me they want a neutral nAO Yep, -NAO is good. Obviously you'd like to to shift a bit in the winter rather than purely static...but a solidly negative NAO base state has a very high correlation to good winters here. Rarely is the NAO static all winter, so its not really something to worry about. Yes, dull periods can occur when it rots negative (like the 3 weeks of nothing after Feb '78 blizzard)...but the bookends often deliever the bigtime goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Our best patterns (esp in early winter) occur with a -PNA/-NAO. Yep, but not sure what area of the PAC Kevin is worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 no way, you cleaned up Dec 09,the only reason we missed out on Feb 10 was the extraordinary ocean storm parked to our east I said "on the whole". I don't want an insanely +NAO nor do I wand an insanley -NAO. I want it to be variable so it ends up around Neutral on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 no way, you cleaned up Dec 09,the only reason we missed out on Feb 10 was the extraordinary ocean storm parked to our east I said "on the whole". I don't want an insanely +NAO nor do I wand an insanley -NAO. I want it to be variable so it ends up around Neutral on average. I'll take my chances with a neg nao any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Yep, but not sure what area of the PAC Kevin is worried about.Huh? I think PAC is far more IMP to us than the NAO. I think snowcover up north is equally as imp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Huh? I think PAC is far more IMP to us than the NAO. I think snowcover up north is equally as imp Yeah, but I wasn't sure if you meant up by AK or off the west coast. I think you meant up by AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I'll take my chances with a neg nao any day of the week. Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I'll take my chances with a neg nao any day of the week. I agree with Etaunton that I think the variable is a changing NAO. Tip's brought this up a lot in the past... maybe it comes out negative in the means, but we don't want just a static -NAO that sits there forcing everything out by the benchmark and beyond. The ebbs and flows of it are what seem to bring the monster storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 NAO that sits there forcing everything out by the benchmark and beyond. Yea I do, its a nightmare for you but a goldmine for SNE from the Ct river SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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