Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 When I lived in NNJ, early snow (compared to climo) seemed usually to be followed by low-snow winters. In Maine, early snow more often leads to good winters, 2011-12 being the glaring exception. Yup same deal in SNE..Sig snows in Oct lead to awful winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Yup same deal in SNE..Sig snows in Oct lead to awful winters I would have thought you learned your lesson after your God-awful claim about March no longer being a winter month. Nevermind that 2 posts up I just explained there was no correlation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 I would have thought you learned your lesson after your God-awful claim about March no longer being a winter month. Nevermind that 2 posts up I just explained there was no correlation here. Siggy snows..not flakes or minor events..Jerry, me, Gay,,we've all discussed it ad nauseum over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Siggy snows..not flakes or minor events..Jerry, me, Gay,,we've all discussed it ad nauseum over the years The sample set is so small though. How many "siggy" storms have you had in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 The sample set is so small though. How many "siggy" storms have you had in October? I've used measureable as "siggy storms" in October. Usually it takes some real snowfall to get measurable in a marginal October atmosphere/warm ground. For ORH, its 13 events since 1950 and the average of those 13 years is almost dead on the long term climo. If you want to cherry pick the sample to big time snowstorms (like over 4 inches), then you reduce your sample size to exactly 3 years...which is beyond obviously insufficient datapoints to draw any type of correlation or conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Siggy snows..not flakes or minor events..Jerry, me, Gay,,we've all discussed it ad nauseum over the years What do you consider a "siggy snow" in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 What do you consider a "siggy snow" in October? 3+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 3+ That gives us 5 years for ORH: 1960-1961: 104.3" 1962-1963: 75.7" 1979-1980: 26.6" 2002-2003: 117.3" 2011-2012: 39.7" Average: 72.7" So based on your requirement of 3.0" events, we should root for them!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 What do you consider a "siggy snow" in October? 2011 is the new benchmark. Anything less is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 That gives us 5 years for ORH: 1960-1961: 104.3" 1962-1963: 75.7" 1979-1980: 26.6" 2002-2003: 117.3" 2011-2012: 39.7" Average: 72.7" So based on your requirement of 3.0" events, we should root for them!!! Well ORH can get a good winter out of any setup. How about 3+ events at BDL and BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Anyone want to explain a physical connection between whether a storm dumps more than the arbitrarily decided amount of 3" of snow during the month of October at the Boston airport, and the quality of the winter that follows in southern New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Well ORH can get a good winter out of any setup. How about 3+ events at BDL and BOS BOS has never had a 3+ event in October. BDL has had 1 (2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 BOS has never had a 3+ event in October. BDL has had 1 (2011). Results of winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Results of winters? You want to use a sample size of 1? We might as well predict winters based on years where you puke on the side of an explorer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 You want to use a sample size of 1? We might as well predict winters based on years where you puke on the side of an explorer. AWT..bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 21, 2013 Author Share Posted August 21, 2013 Results of winters? You want to use a sample size of 1? We might as well predict winters based on years where you puke on the side of an explorer. I did that (not an explorer obviously in fall of 1975. Average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 I did that (not an explorer obviously in fall of 1975. Average winter. Great December...solid January...dead ratter February. BOS had almost 50"...respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Anyone want to explain a physical connection between whether a storm dumps more than the arbitrarily decided amount of 3" of snow during the month of October at the Boston airport, and the quality of the winter that follows in southern New England? Kevin knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Kevin that was in 2009? That wasn't an awful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Kevin that was in 2009? That wasn't an awful winter. Puking on the car was '09...it was an OK winter in the interior and SE MA areas...BOS up to NE MA got kind of screwed...and the CT Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Puking on the car was '09...it was an OK winter in the interior and SE MA areas...BOS up to NE MA got kind of screwed...and the CT Valley. Oh yeah I remember it well, but I'd take that over the disaster two winters ago anytime. I'll never forget that. Three wine coolers in three hours and he was legless. The guy became a SWFE on the drivers side panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Anyone want to explain a physical connection between whether a storm dumps more than the arbitrarily decided amount of 3" of snow during the month of October at the Boston airport, and the quality of the winter that follows in southern New England? Not going to happen in weenie-ville. Essentially the correlation is the same as this: I purchased a new car in fall of 2002. That winter of 2002-2003 was great. I purchased an SUV in the fall of 2009. That winter of 2009-2010 was the worst in 20 years up here. Therefore, winters following a purchase of an SUV are awful, while I should consider buying a new sedan more often because that one winter was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 The CFS and ECMWF both have an El Nino-ish look to it for DJF. The ECMWF has more of an oomph to it BTW. Source: https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Looks like we've got ourselves an El nino this winter..please keep it weak Wxrisk.com *** SIGNIFICANT SEASONAL DEVELOPMENT *** More and More data shows at least a WEAK El Nino developing as we move into the Autumn and Winter.WHY IS THAT IMPORTANT? Weak to Moderate El Nino events OFTEN produce at least " Average winters" with respect to temperatures and snowfall over the central and eastern portions of the country.. And if other factors come to play ... weak to Moderate El Nino winters sometime produce Below Normal temperatures and Above Normal snowfall for the central and eastern portions of the country.The key point is that the El Nino event stays weak to moderate. Once El Nino event crosses the "moderate level" threshold and begins to approach the strong El Nino threshold ... Then there is a significant shift towards LESS snow and a milder winter. ( There is no sign of Moderate to strong El NIno developing . I am just pointed out this fact so you can get a better understanding of the overall impact). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Euro sip which is the more skilled is a hair cooler keeping it neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 In fact the stat models are very neutral to warm neutral during the winter. But as we know...ENSO forecasting is not exact by any means so the jury is still out. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html Edit: I meant the combo of stat and dynamical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Not buying an El Nino...but I would love to be wrong and have a weak El Nino...cold/snowy is often the result for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Not buying an El Nino...but I would love to be wrong and have a weak El Nino...cold/snowy is often the result for us. Weak Nino sounds right but Nino is not the player here this winter. -AO/NAO with some pac energy is a beautiful thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Weak Nino sounds right but Nino is not the player here this winter. -AO/NAO with some pac energy is a beautiful thing Well if Nino got strong enough to be officially weak, then Nino would become a big player. It would enhance the probability of PNA ridging and potentially get a weak STJ going. Those factors could be enormous for snowfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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